# Sharks v Dolphins — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 10 – 38 Dolphins

_Dolphins run riot over Sharks._

Half time: 4 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 66% / Dolphins 34% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 21 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Samuel Stonestreet (27'), Braydon Trindall (49') · Dolphins: Jake Averillo (19' 1st), Jamayne Isaako (30'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (39'), Jake Averillo (74' 1st), Selwyn Cobbo (76'), Connelly Lemuelu (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 66% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 10:57 am_

Sharks 10–38 Dolphins in NRL Round 3 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat the Sharks 38-10 at Ocean Protect Stadium, and on the final score it looks like a hiding. Look at the half-time board and it wasn't nearly that lopsided: Dolphins led 16-4 at the break, a 12-point gap that ballooned by another 16 in the second half. The game was tight for long stretches. It just wasn't tight at the finish.

The opening exchanges backed that up. Jake Averillo put Dolphins up in the 19th minute, and Samuel Stonestreet hit back seven minutes later to level it at 4-4. For a moment it looked like an arm wrestle. Then Jamayne Isaako crossed in the 30th and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow added another just before half-time, and Sharks were suddenly down 4-16 at the break with little to show for their efforts.

Braydon Trindall pulled one back early in the second half to make it 8-16, and that's where it stayed for a long time. Nothing happened between the 48th minute and the 74th. Then it came apart fast: Averillo's second try in the 74th, Selwyn Cobbo in the 76th and Connelly Lemuelu in the 79th turned a manageable ten-point gap into a 28-point rout inside six minutes.

Strip out the scoreline and the stat sheet reads differently. Sharks broke 33 tackles to the Dolphins' 25, offloaded 12 times to 10, and tackled at 91.2% effectiveness against 87.1%. Post-contact metres were almost identical, 493 to 494.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Dolphins | 16 | 22 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 84% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,549 | Run metres | **1,772** |
| 493 | Post-contact metres | **494** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **33** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| **91.2%** | Effective tackle % | 87.1% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 33 |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 673 | Kick metres | **683** |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 66% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. Dolphins led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/4 on this match. Dolphins covered the 7.5-point line. The under 55.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dolphins bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 56% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 19' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 4-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 8-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 74' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 10-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 76' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 10-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.43 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 66% to see off Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 75 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1491.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sharks by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 47. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 66-0 in 2026 Round 19.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 7th against Dolphins 9th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.43 and Dolphins $2.85, with the line at Sharks -7.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Sharks 2 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 66-0 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 7th · Dolphins 9th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Sharks $1.43 · Dolphins $2.85 |
| Line | Sharks -7.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28W–22L | 56% |
| Dolphins | 6W–8L | 43% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 13-point edge: 28W–22L (56%) vs Dolphins's 6W–8L (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 35.2pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 33.2pts |
| 8.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1558.8m | Run Metres | 1778.8m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 361.2 | Tackles | 338.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | FW1 W · SF W · PF L · R1 W · R2 L | 24.4 |
| Dolphins | R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 W | 35.2 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Dolphins | 0 – 66 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R19 | Sharks | 24 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R15 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R10 | Sharks | 16 – 36 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 6th there (1.26 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.78/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) | 1.13/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 222m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 62 · 55 | 72 · 63 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 736m/g | 769m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 18 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 488m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.22) +27% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 48% | — | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 2/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 2/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 2/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | RES | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (4·2·0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 62% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 19' 74' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Oryn Keeley | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1566 · Dolphins 1491 · ELO difference: 75 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 | 1031 | Sharks +30 |
| Backs | 1046 | 955 | Sharks +91 |
| Halves | 1065 | 974 | Sharks +91 |
| Hooker | 1031 | 961 | Sharks +70 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sharks predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-21 23:57 UTC (latest tip update)