Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 66% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. Dolphins led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 55.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dolphins bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 55% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
66%
Dolphins
34%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Sharks by 6.0 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.43
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.0%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L older → newer | 24.4 |
Dolphins | R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W | 35.2 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Sharks
33.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
8.4
Sharks
2.0
Dolphins
Run Metres
1559
Sharks
1779
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.0
Sharks
7.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sharks have won 26 of 47 games (55%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 5 from 13 (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sharks predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.0
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