# Roosters v Panthers — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 4 – 40 Panthers

_Panthers claw past Roosters._

Half time: 4 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 50% / Panthers 50% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 20 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (5' 1st) · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (16'), Brian To'o (20'), Dylan Edwards (22'), Thomas Jenkins (27'), Thomas Jenkins (45'), Thomas Jenkins (65'), Dylan Edwards (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 50% | Lost |
| Panthers | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 20 Mar 2026, 08:22 pm_

Roosters 4–40 Panthers in NRL Round 3 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-seven per cent. That's Roosters' completion rate, and it explains the 40-4 scoreline better than anything else on the sheet. Panthers completed at 88%. When one side is giving away the ball nearly a third of the time and the other barely at all, the rest of the stats tend to follow.

Robert Toia got the Roosters on the board inside four minutes, and for about eleven minutes it looked like a contest. Then Thomas Jenkins crossed to level it, Brian To'o followed seven minutes later, and Dylan Edwards made it three tries in thirteen minutes to push Panthers to 4-14. Jenkins added a second just before the half-hour to make it 4-20, and Panthers went to the break up 24-4. Roosters never scored again.

Jenkins kept going after halftime, crossing in the 44th and 64th minutes for his third and fourth, and Edwards added his second in the 70th to close it out at 40-4. Four tries to Jenkins, two to Edwards, one to To'o. Roosters had nothing to answer with after Toia's early four-pointer.

The line break count tells you where the game was actually decided: Panthers eight, Roosters four. Add in 10 errors to Roosters' 16 and it's a simple enough equation. Panthers held the ball, found the gaps, and made Roosters do the chasing. The kicking game backed it up too, 679 metres to 394, which is the kind of gap that wins field position all day without needing to force anything.

Roosters did win some individual battles. They ran for more post-contact metres, 563 to 497, busted more tackles at 44 to 31, and threw the ball around with 19 offloads to Panthers' 9. None of it mattered much when the other side scored eight tries. Yardage after the tackle is a consolation prize when you're missing 44 tackles to their 31, which is exactly what the Roosters defence did.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a mismatch in the spine. Panthers rated ahead at hooker (1160 to 1015), halves (1143 to 1063) and forwards (1115 to 1004). Their form matched it, four wins from five and an average margin of plus-16, against a Roosters outfit averaging plus-6.8 and conceding 19.2 a game. Nothing about Saturday contradicted any of that.

Alphr's model backed Panthers at 50% and got the winner right. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 2 points against an actual 36, one of the bigger misses you'll see. The total was the bright spot, called at 44 against an actual 44, dead on, and the under 45.5 lean landed too. Two from four on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Panthers | 24 | 16 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 67% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| 1,716 | Run metres | **1,880** |
| **563** | Post-contact metres | 497 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| **19** | Offloads | 9 |
| **89.7%** | Effective tackle % | 82.7% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| 16 | Errors | **10** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 394 | Kick metres | **679** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. Panthers led 4–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 15' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 19' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 4-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 4-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 27' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 4-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 44' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 4-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 64' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 4-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 70' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 4-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.58 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Roosters and Panthers. The model can't split them, landing on Panthers at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 96 ELO points clear, 1637 to 1541. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Roosters.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 19-12 in 2026 Round 28.

Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 10th against Panthers 3rd.

The market has Panthers favourites, Roosters $2.39 and Panthers $1.58, with the line at Roosters +5.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 19-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 10th · Panthers 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $2.39 · Panthers $1.58 |
| Line | Roosters +5.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |
| Panthers | 27W–13L | 68% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Roosters 37W–22L (63%) and Panthers 27W–13L (68%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Roosters's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 16.0pts |
| 1628.8m | Run Metres | 1770.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 324.8 | Tackles | 334.6 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R26 W · R27 W · FW1 L · R1 L · R2 W | 26.0 |
| Panthers | FW1 W · SF W · PF L · R1 W · R2 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Panthers | 19 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R24 | Panthers | 6 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R7 | Roosters | 12 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R2 | Panthers | 32 – 38 | Roosters |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 3rd there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 10th there (1.72 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 8th) | 1.48/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.76/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 10th) | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 18 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 203m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 84.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 75 · 51 | 68 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 719m/g | 800m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.9/g | 17.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 16 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 493m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.46) -9% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.42) -21% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.14) -21%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/19g | 26/49g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (1·2·0·2·3·0·1·0·0·1) | 10/22g | 73/99g | 58% | — | — |
| 3 | Fetalaiga Pauga | CE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 27% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/10g | 24% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (0·0·3·0·0·4·3·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 11/11g | 54% | — | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/23g | 4/23g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/31g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/14g | 8/30g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Egan Butcher | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 7/43g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 3/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 3/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 22' 71' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 4 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 48% | — | 🏉 16' 27' 45' 65' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·3·2·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 7/12g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 2/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Freddy Lussick | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1541 · Panthers 1637 · ELO difference: 96 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1004 | 1115 | Panthers +110 |
| Backs | 1065 | 1134 | Panthers +69 |
| Halves | 1063 | 1143 | Panthers +81 |
| Hooker | 1015 | 1160 | Panthers +145 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-roosters-v-panthers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-20 09:22 UTC (latest tip update)