NRL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

SYD
Roosters
VS
PEN
Panthers
ALLIANZ STADIUM, SYDNEY • FRIDAY 20 MAR, 6:00 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

50%RoostersFavourite

Roosters

50%

Panthers

50%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Panthers a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1541). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Panthers by 2.0 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.58

Winner ✓

Edge

-10.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Roosters +5.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Panthers 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 45.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Roosters
WWLLL
22.8
Panthers
WWWWL
30.0

Avg Conceded

21.6

Roosters

14.0

Panthers

Avg Margin

1.2

Roosters

16.0

Panthers

Run Metres

1566

Roosters

1812

Panthers

Line Breaks

6.0

Roosters

4.8

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

SYD
63%34W 20L
PEN
65%24W 13L

Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Roosters 34W–20L (63%) and Panthers 24W–13L (65%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Roosters an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Apr 2025SYD 12 - 40 PEN
Mar 2025SYD 38 - 32 PEN
Sep 2024SYD 10 - 30 PEN
Mar 2024SYD 16 - 22 PEN
Jun 2023SYD 6 - 30 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SYD
1541Overall1637
PEN
ELO difference: -96 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1004Forwards1115
PEN +110
1065Backs1134
PEN +69
1063Halves1143
PEN +81
1015Hooker1160
PEN +145

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SYD
Stat
PEN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
22.8pts
Avg Score
30.0pts
21.6pts
Avg Conceded
14.0pts
1.2pts
Avg Margin
16.0pts
1566.4m
Run Metres
1812.0m
6.0
Line Breaks
4.8
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Panthers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Panthers
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Roosters
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Roosters

Model Confidence

50%

Roosters predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.0

2/4 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props