Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. Panthers led 4–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
50%
Panthers
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Panthers a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1541). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Panthers by 2.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.0%
Line / Spread
Roosters +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28L R2026-R1L R2026-R2W older → newer | 26.0 |
Panthers | R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Roosters
11.2
Panthers
Avg Margin
6.8
Roosters
16.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1629
Roosters
1770
Panthers
Line Breaks
6.2
Roosters
4.4
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Roosters 35W–21L (63%) and Panthers 25W–13L (66%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.0
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