Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 50. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
48%
Bulldogs
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Bulldogs a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Bulldogs counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 1.1 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @2.00
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L older → newer | 19.8 |
Bulldogs | R2025-R26W R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W | 18.6 |
Avg Conceded
38.2
Raiders
22.8
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-18.4
Raiders
-4.2
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1531
Raiders
1779
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.4
Raiders
5.2
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Raiders 22W–20L (52%) and Bulldogs 14W–14L (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1494 vs 1485), but the market favours Bulldogs (@2.00).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -1.1
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.