Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
48%
Bulldogs
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Bulldogs a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Bulldogs counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Recent form favours Raiders with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 1.1 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @2.00
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWLLL | 23.4 |
Bulldogs | WLLLL | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.2
Raiders
25.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-8.8
Raiders
-5.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1528
Raiders
1640
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.4
Raiders
5.3
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Raiders hold a 7‑point edge: 22W–18L (55%) vs Bulldogs's 13W–14L (48%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Raiders an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1494 vs 1485), but the market favours Bulldogs (@2.00).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -1.1
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