# Raiders v Bulldogs — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 10 – 14 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs muzzle Raiders in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 48% / Bulldogs 52% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Thu, 19 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Savelio Tamale (3' 1st), Savelio Tamale (74' 1st) · Bulldogs: Connor Tracey (11'), Jacob Preston (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 52% | Won |
| Raiders | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 19 Mar 2026, 09:46 pm_

Raiders 10–14 Bulldogs in NRL Round 3 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Bulldogs by 1.1 points and a combined total of 50. The scoreboard read Bulldogs by 4, total of 24. So the pick was right, the margin call was close enough to touch, and the total was never in the same postcode as the prediction.

Bulldogs won 14-10 at GIO Stadium, and it was tight the whole way. Savelio Tamale opened the scoring inside three minutes for the Raiders, Connor Tracey hit back for Bulldogs at the ten-minute mark to make it 6-4, and from there the sides traded blows without either side pulling clear. Raiders led 6-4 briefly before Bulldogs edged ahead, and it was 8-6 to Bulldogs at half-time. Josh Papalii spent time in the bin from the 16th minute after his sin-binning, leaving the Raiders a man short for ten minutes in a game decided by four points.

The result came down to two scores in the last ten minutes. Jacob Preston crossed in the 70th minute to push Bulldogs out to 12-6, and Tamale grabbed his second try three minutes later to drag the Raiders back within four. That's as close as it got. Four points, same as the final margin, same as what the model said would separate them before a ball was kicked.

The stat sheet explains why Bulldogs held on. They ran 1,714 metres to 1,565, completed at 91% against the Raiders' 77%, and coughed the ball up just seven times to nine. Bulldogs also had more of the ball, 52% to 48%, and broke the line four times to three. None of that is a shock given the form lines coming in: Bulldogs averaged 1,778.8 run metres a game over their last five, well clear of the Raiders' 1,530.8, and their halves rating of 1,009 outstripped the Raiders' 958.

Where the Raiders won the fight was in contact. They busted 51 tackles to the Bulldogs' 22 and threw 15 offloads to 10, keeping the ball alive when it mattered.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Bulldogs | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **91%** |
| 1,565 | Run metres | **1,714** |
| 476 | Post-contact metres | **483** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **51** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| **15** | Offloads | 10 |
| **90.7%** | Effective tackle % | 83.0% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 51 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 626 | Kick metres | **970** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 50. The model went 3/4 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 1.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 10' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 16' Sin Bin — Josh Papalii (Raiders) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 70' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 73' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.00 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 1 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Raiders and Bulldogs. The model can't split them, landing on Bulldogs at 52%. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Raiders.

On paper Raiders shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Bulldogs, which says Halves Control and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 50. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 40-16 in 2026 Round 19.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 11th against Bulldogs 6th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.84 and Bulldogs $2.00, with the line at Raiders -1.5.

Bulldogs come in fresher, 18 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 40-16 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 11th · Bulldogs 6th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Raiders $1.84 · Bulldogs $2.00 |
| Line | Raiders -1.5 |
| Rest gap | Raiders 6d · Bulldogs 18d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Raiders 22W–22L (50%) and Bulldogs 16W–14L (53%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 38.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -18.4pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1530.8m | Run Metres | 1778.8m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 370.4 | Tackles | 381.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R27 L · FW1 L · SF L · R1 W · R2 L | 19.8 |
| Bulldogs | R26 W · R27 L · FW1 L · SF L · R1 W | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Bulldogs | 16 – 40 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R10 | Raiders | 20 – 32 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R22 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R11 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R25 | Raiders | 36 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 7th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.77 conceded/game). Key man: Montoya, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.92/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.12/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.31/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 7 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 57 · 65 | 46 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 662m/g | 757m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.1/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.3% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 18 | 28 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 448m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Wingers 1.29/g (lg 1.27) +2%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 12/25g | 38% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 29% | — | 🏉 3' 74' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 21/51g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/4g | 18/30g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 10/22g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 2g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 30/133g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/58g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 10/95g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 24/62g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 25% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/46g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/8g | 3/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Curran | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1494 vs 1485), but the market favours Bulldogs (@2.00). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1494 · Bulldogs 1485 · ELO difference: 9 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1011 | 989 | Raiders +21 |
| Backs | 1017 | 947 | Raiders +71 |
| Halves | 958 | 1009 | Bulldogs +51 |
| Hooker | 1002 | 991 | Raiders +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-19 10:46 UTC (latest tip update)