# Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 20 – 16 Wests Tigers

_Rabbitohs surge back to scamper past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 55% / Wests Tigers 45% · Polytec Stadium, Gosford · Sat, 21 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Jye Gray (4' 1st), Jack Wighton (7'), Latrell Mitchell (52'), Alex Johnston (67') · Wests Tigers: Samuela Fainu (37'), Heamasi Makasini (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 55% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 03:21 am_

Rabbitohs 20–16 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 3 at Polytec Stadium, Gosford. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers did almost everything you'd want with the ball, and still lost. That's the story of this one. South Sydney won the game 20-16 at Polytec Stadium while getting beaten in nearly every category that's supposed to matter: possession, completion rate, run metres, post-contact metres, tackle busts. Wests Tigers had the ball more, ran it further, and handled it better. Rabbitohs had the points when it counted.

The Rabbitohs came out swinging. Jye Gray crossed inside three minutes, Jack Wighton added a second by the seven-minute mark, and suddenly it was 10-0 before Wests Tigers had settled into the game. That's the ambition side of the ledger: quick strikes, opportunism, points on the board early without needing to dominate the ball to get them.

Wests Tigers answered with the patience. They ground it out, took territory through Samuela Fainu's try in the 36th minute and Heamasi Makasini's four minutes later, and turned a 10-point deficit into a two-point lead by half-time, 14-12. That's what 84% completion and 1,808 run metres buys you: field position, phases, and eventually points, even if they arrive later than the flashy ones.

Second half, Rabbitohs found their range again. Latrell Mitchell's try in the 51st minute put them back in front 16-14, and Alex Johnston sealed it in the 66th, 20-16. Two tries from two line-break chances apiece, both sides level at four line breaks each, which tells you the difference wasn't in who broke the line. It was in who did something with it.

The completion numbers explain a lot. Rabbitohs coughed the ball up 16 times to Wests Tigers' 11, and conceded eight penalties to five. Wests Tigers' 87.3% effective tackle rate against Rabbitohs' 83.5% meant the Rabbitohs missed 42 tackles to Wests Tigers' 29, and that gap in defence let Wests Tigers rack up 643 post-contact metres to 502. On paper, that's a side that should be running away with it.

Instead, Rabbitohs made their own ball count and leaned on the boot, kicking for 671 metres to Wests Tigers' 416, turning territory into pressure rather than trying to match Wests Tigers carry for carry. It's a low-possession, high-efficiency approach, and against a side built on go-forward it was enough.

The pre-match numbers had this closer than the ratings suggested, Rabbitohs 1436 to Wests Tigers' 1441, with Alphr's model giving the Rabbitohs 55% and picking them by 5.8 points on a combined total of 47. Wests Tigers' edge in the halves and at hooker looked like it might tip the ball-control battle their way, and it did. It just didn't translate into the scoreboard. Final margin was 4, tight enough that the model's read holds up, and the under on 53.5 total points landed too, with the combined 36 well south of that number.

Wests Tigers will look at the metres and the completion rate and wonder how they came away with less than the Rabbitohs. Wins and misses, all of it. This one was decided by four points and not much else.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| Wests Tigers | 14 | 2 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,539 | Run metres | **1,808** |
| 502 | Post-contact metres | **643** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 11 | Offloads | **14** |
| 83.5% | Effective tackle % | **87.3%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **671** | Kick metres | 416 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Rabbitohs trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 14 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 50% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 7' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 39' Try — Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 51' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 66' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.57 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 55%, but Wests Tigers stay live at 45%. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 20-16 in 2026 Round 3.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 8th against Wests Tigers 5th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.57 and Wests Tigers $2.40, with the line at Rabbitohs -5.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 20-16 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 8th · Wests Tigers 5th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.57 · Wests Tigers $2.40 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -5.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4W–4L | 50% |
| Wests Tigers | 4W–6L | 40% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Rabbitohs hold a 10-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 4W–6L (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Rabbitohs's -0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1711.2m | Run Metres | 1666.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 308.0 | Tackles | 317.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R24 W · R25 W · R27 L · R1 W · R2 L | 24.8 |
| Wests Tigers | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R2 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R11 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 22 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R20 | Rabbitohs | 42 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 0 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 13th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.21/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 26 | 11 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 229m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 83.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 48 · 55 | 55 · 58 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 647m/g | 668m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.7% | 78.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 9 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.42) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.27) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Polytec Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 31% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 3 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2) | 20/18g | 0/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/12g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 45% | — | — |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jock Madden | RES | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1441 vs 1436), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.57). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1436 · Wests Tigers 1441 · ELO difference: 5 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 964 | 938 | Rabbitohs +26 |
| Backs | 947 | 933 | Rabbitohs +14 |
| Halves | 924 | 945 | Wests Tigers +21 |
| Hooker | 900 | 969 | Wests Tigers +69 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-rabbitohs-v-wests-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-21 16:21 UTC (latest tip update)