Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Rabbitohs trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 53.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 14 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 50% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
55%
Wests Tigers
45%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 5.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.57
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L older → newer | 24.8 |
Wests Tigers | R2025-R24W R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R2W | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Rabbitohs
24.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
3.2
Rabbitohs
2.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1711
Rabbitohs
1667
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.8
Rabbitohs
5.0
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Rabbitohs hold a 12-point edge: 3W–3L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 3W–5L (38%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Rabbitohs).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Wests Tigers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Rabbitohs's -0.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1441 vs 1436), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.57).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +5.8
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