Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
55%
Wests Tigers
45%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 5.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.57
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWWWL | 25.2 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Rabbitohs
24.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
5.2
Rabbitohs
0.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1694
Rabbitohs
1527
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.2
Rabbitohs
4.0
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 7‑point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Wests Tigers's 2W–4L (33%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Rabbitohs — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.5 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1441 vs 1436), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.57).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +5.8
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AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.