# Knights v Warriors — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 12 – 38 Warriors

_Warriors run riot over Knights._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 42% / Warriors 58% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sat, 21 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Hunt (3' 1st), Greg Marzhew (66') · Warriors: Erin Clark (13'), Jackson Ford (29'), Leka Halasima (39'), James Fisher-Harris (52'), Tanah Boyd (55'), Luke Hanson (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 58% | Won |
| Knights | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Knights vs Warriors Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 3, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 21 Mar 2026, 05:33 pm_

Knights 12–38 Warriors in NRL Round 3 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors beat Knights 38-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium, and if anything that scoreline is generous to Newcastle. Eight errors to fifteen, four penalties conceded to eleven, an 87% completion rate against 63%. The Warriors barely put a foot wrong with the ball and the Knights barely put one right.

It didn't start that way. Fletcher Hunt scored inside three minutes to put the Knights up 4-0, the kind of opening that suggested an upset might be on. It lasted nine minutes. Erin Clark levelled the arithmetic by the 12th, Jackson Ford put the Warriors ahead at 29, and Fletcher Hunt then took himself to the sin bin three minutes later, which is not the follow-up act you want after scoring the game's first try. Leka Halasima crossed just before the break and the Warriors went to the sheds up 18-6.

The second half was a formality dressed up as a contest. James Fisher-Harris and Tanah Boyd scored either side of the hour to push it to 6-28, Greg Marzhew got one back for Newcastle at 65, Trey Mooney joined Hunt in the bin at 75, and Luke Hanson finished it off with the last try of the day. Six different try scorers for the Warriors tells its own story about how spread their attack was.

The forward numbers back it up. Warriors ran for 1,841 metres to 1,520, add 599 post-contact to 493, and broke 36 tackles to 24. That's a pack getting quick ball and a defensive line unable to hold its shape, not helped by missing 36 tackles of its own against 24. The Warriors also had the ball more, 56% to 44%, and used it better in the air, out-kicking Newcastle 658 metres to 471. Only in offloads did the Knights come out ahead, 7 to 5, which is about the only column they won all day.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the sheet before kick-off. The Warriors held the edge in every positional rating that matters, forwards 1056 to 904, backs 1080 to 926, halves 1049 to 937, hooker 1078 to 979. Form lines told a similar tale, Newcastle conceding 37.2 points a game across their last five against the Warriors' 20.2, with the Knights carrying an average margin of minus 16.8 to the Warriors' plus 7.4. Both sides arrived on the same LLLWW string, but only one of them looked like a side building something.

Alphr's model backed the Warriors at 58% and got the winner right. It undercooked the margin badly, tipping 2.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Warriors | 18 | 20 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 63% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,520 | Run metres | **1,841** |
| 493 | Post-contact metres | **599** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 89.5% | Effective tackle % | **89.8%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 15 | Errors | **8** |
| 11 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 471 | Kick metres | **658** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. Warriors led 6–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 86% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 12' Try — Erin Clark (Warriors) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Sin Bin — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 51' Try — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 54' Try — Tanah Boyd (Warriors) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 65' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-30 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Sin Bin — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 10-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 80' Try — Luke Hanson (Warriors) — 12-38 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.59 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 58.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 58%, but Knights stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 117 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1439.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 46-32 in 2026 Round 26.

Knights have put up 122 points in four games. Warriors have won 6 straight; Warriors have put up 162 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Knights 4th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Knights $2.37 and Warriors $1.59, with the line at Knights +4.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 3 · Warriors 7 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 46-32 |
| Knights last 4 | WWLL · 122 for, 140 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWW · 162 for, 94 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 4th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Knights $2.37 · Warriors $1.59 |
| Line | Knights +4.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 7W–5L | 58% |
| Warriors | 6W–1L | 86% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Knights's 7 from 12 (58%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Warriors).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Warriors get a +1.9 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 37.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -16.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.4pts |
| 1498.4m | Run Metres | 1732.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 337.6 | Tackles | 336.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 W · R2 W | 20.4 |
| Warriors | R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L · R1 W · R2 W | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Warriors | 46 – 32 | Knights |
| 2025 | R20 | Knights | 15 – 20 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R8 | Warriors | 26 – 12 | Knights |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R4 | Warriors | 20 – 12 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Ford, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.16/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.92/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.48/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 19 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 179m/g | 191m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 55 | 45 · 60 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 753m/g | 683m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.7/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.3% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 20 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 528m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.71) -4% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.42) -5% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.46) -7%
**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.42) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/7g | 46% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/8g | 26/30g | 54% | — | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/22g | 26/108g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 20/45g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 6/7g | 21/31g | 38% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 4/78g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/54g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/26g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/20g | 10/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Manuleleua | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 9/15g | 6/10g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 3/9g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Hanson | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 80' |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/6g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | CE | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 49% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Marata Niukore | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1439 · Warriors 1556 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 904 | 1056 | Warriors +151 |
| Backs | 926 | 1080 | Warriors +154 |
| Halves | 937 | 1049 | Warriors +112 |
| Hooker | 979 | 1078 | Warriors +99 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Warriors predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-21 06:33 UTC (latest tip update)