Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. Warriors led 6–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 86% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
42%
Warriors
58%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1439). The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.59
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Knights +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W older → newer | 20.4 |
Warriors | R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
37.2
Knights
20.2
Warriors
Avg Margin
-16.8
Knights
7.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1498
Knights
1732
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.0
Knights
5.0
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Knights's 6 from 11 (55%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Warriors).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Warriors get a +1.9 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Warriors predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.2
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