Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
61%
Dragons
39%
AI Match Overview
Eels hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 131-point ELO rating advantage (1481 vs 1350). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Eels by 5.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.7%
Line / Spread
Dragons +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Eels 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWWLL | 28.4 |
Dragons | LLLLL | 13.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Eels
29.8
Dragons
Avg Margin
5.6
Eels
-16.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1638
Eels
1608
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.6
Eels
3.0
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Ashley Klein officiates — Eels 27W–31L (47%) and Dragons 18W–21L (46%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Eels predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.5
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