# Eels v Dragons — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Eels v Dragons
Sun, 22 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.45 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 36.2pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -20.6pts |
| 1591.2m | Run Metres | 1587.8m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 319.2 | Tackles | 404.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 W | 33.2 |
| Dragons | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L | 15.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-eels-v-dragons
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 08:20 UTC