Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Eels's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
61%
Dragons
39%
AI Match Overview
Eels hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 131-point ELO rating advantage (1481 vs 1350). Recent form favours Eels with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Eels by 5.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.7%
Line / Spread
Dragons +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Eels 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W older → newer | 33.2 |
Dragons | R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Eels
36.2
Dragons
Avg Margin
8.0
Eels
-20.6
Dragons
Run Metres
1591
Eels
1588
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.6
Eels
3.0
Dragons
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Eels 28W–31L (47%) and Dragons 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Dragons get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Eels's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Eels predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.5
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