# Eels v Dragons — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 30 – 20 Dragons

_Eels slither past Dragons._

Half time: 18 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 61% / Dragons 39% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 22 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Jonah Pezet (10' 1st), Tallyn Da Silva (34'), Kitione Kautoga (38'), Tallyn Da Silva (45'), Josh Addo-Carr (73') · Dragons: Luciano Leilua (13'), Jaydn Su'A (24'), Moses Suli (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 61% | Won |
| Dragons | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 06:09 pm_

Eels 30–20 Dragons in NRL Round 3 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Dragons did plenty to make this uncomfortable. They out-ran the Eels for the day, 2,039 metres to 1,839, and made them work for every tackle, racking up 710 post-contact metres to the home side's 602. Five line breaks to three, 38 tackle breads to 33, 18 offloads to six. On paper, that's a side that should have won the collision battle comfortably.

It just didn't add up to the scoreboard. St George Illawarra conceded 3 penalties to the Eels' 8 and still walked out with a 20-30 loss, which tells you the game wasn't decided at the ruck or the penalty count. It was decided with ball in hand at the wrong moments, an 11-to-12 error count that looks close but carried more weight than the numbers suggest, and a completion rate of 74% against the Eels' 86%.

The early signs were promising for the Dragons. Luciano Leilua levelled it at 6-6 in the 12th minute, and Jaydn Su'A put them ahead 12-6 by the 23rd. A Ryan Couchman sin bin in the 27th should have hurt, but somehow the Dragons still led 14-6 heading into the Eels' response. Then it all came apart in a hurry: Tallyn Da Silva scored either side of half-time, first to make it 14-10, then again in the 44th minute to push the margin out to 22-14. Moses Suli got one back in the 56th, but by then the Eels had banked too much.

Parramatta led 18-14 at the break and never let go. Jonah Pezet opened the scoring with a penalty try in the 10th minute and finished with a try of his own later in the match, part of a five-try haul that also included Kitione Kautoga and, right at the death in the 72nd minute, Josh Addo-Carr to make it 30-20. Da Silva's double either side of the interval was the real difference, turning a two-point halftime deficit into a buffer the Dragons couldn't chase down.

The kicking game told its own story. Eels put boot to ball for 886 metres against the Dragons' 552, which lines up with the pre-match read: Parramatta came in rated higher across the park, 991 to 860 in the forwards, 1010 to 866 at hooker, 985 to 841 in the halves. Those gaps showed up not in the collisions, where the Dragons actually won plenty of the individual duels, but in field position and completion when it mattered.

Form lines backed the same story before kick-off. The Eels arrived on the back of four wins from five, averaging 33.2 points a game, while the Dragons had lost all five, leaking an average of 36.2. A 30-point performance from Parramatta and a 20-point concession from the Dragons sits close enough to both trends to say nothing here was a shock.

Alphr's model had the Eels at 61% and picked them by 5.5 points against an actual 10. Combined total was tipped at 45, with the actual finishing on 50, comfortably within range. Three from four calls landed, margin band included. Not a bad night's work for the numbers, even if the game itself had more twists than the final gap suggests.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Dragons | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,839 | Run metres | **2,039** |
| 602 | Post-contact metres | **710** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **38** |
| 6 | Offloads | **18** |
| 84.8% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| 38 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **886** | Kick metres | 552 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Eels's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Penalty Try — Jonah Pezet (Eels) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 12' Try — Luciano Leilua (Dragons) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 23' Try — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Sin Bin — Ryan Couchman (Dragons) — 6-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 34' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 38' Try — Kitione Kautoga (Eels) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 44' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 22-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Sin Bin — Charlie Guymer (Eels) — 22-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 56' Try — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 24-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 72' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 28-20 · win-prob swing +16 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.45 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Eels are the call at 61%, but Dragons stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Eels sit 131 ELO points clear, 1481 to 1350. Form leans Eels' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Eels own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Eels by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Eels, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 27.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Eels 12th against Dragons 14th.

The market has Eels favourites, Eels $1.45 and Dragons $2.76, with the line at Eels -6.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 12th · Dragons 14th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Eels $1.45 · Dragons $2.76 |
| Line | Eels -6.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 29W–30L | 49% |
| Dragons | 18W–22L | 45% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Eels 29W–30L (49%) and Dragons 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Dragons get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Eels's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 36.2pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -20.6pts |
| 1591.2m | Run Metres | 1587.8m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 319.2 | Tackles | 404.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 W | 33.2 |
| Dragons | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Eels |
| 2025 | R17 | Dragons | 34 – 20 | Eels |
| 2025 | R5 | Eels | 23 – 22 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R26 | Eels | 44 – 40 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R23 | Eels | 26 – 20 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2.04 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 13th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 8th) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.79/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 9 | 10 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 167m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 58 | 55 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 723m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 81.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 21 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.42) +31%
**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.71) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 4/11g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 8/26g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 14/31g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·2·1·3·0) | 10/8g | 16/20g | 54% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 6 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 3/14g | 20/61g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 10/83g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 2/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 13 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 2/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 13% | — | 🏉 34' 45' |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 36/74g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/6g | 10% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·2) | 3/13g | 1/4g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Setu Tu | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daniel Atkinson | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 4/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 4/19g | 4% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/13g | 32% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/14g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Couchman | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1481 · Dragons 1350 · ELO difference: 131 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 991 | 860 | Eels +131 |
| Backs | 958 | 812 | Eels +147 |
| Halves | 985 | 841 | Eels +144 |
| Hooker | 1010 | 866 | Eels +144 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Eels predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-22 07:09 UTC (latest tip update)