Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 57.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Cowboys's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Cowboys have a 65% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
60%
Titans
40%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1364 vs 1322). Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 5.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 57.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L older → newer | 27.2 |
Titans | R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Cowboys
32.8
Titans
Avg Margin
-1.2
Cowboys
-11.2
Titans
Run Metres
1759
Cowboys
1498
Titans
Line Breaks
4.0
Cowboys
4.4
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 17 of 26 games (65%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 24 (29%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Titans get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Cowboys's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Cowboys predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.2
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