Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
60%
Titans
40%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1364 vs 1322). Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 5.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 57.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WWLLL | 27.6 |
Titans | WLLLL | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
23.4
Cowboys
40.0
Titans
Avg Margin
4.2
Cowboys
-16.8
Titans
Run Metres
1786
Cowboys
1522
Titans
Line Breaks
3.4
Cowboys
4.6
Titans
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 15 of 24 games (63%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 22 (32%). That's a 31‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Cowboys predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.2
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