# Warriors v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 31 – 30 Sea Eagles

_Warriors pip Sea Eagles by a point._

Half time: 20 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 72% / Sea Eagles 28% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 05 Sept, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Adam Pompey (11'), Taine Tuaupiki (21'), Taine Tuaupiki (26'), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (30' Tipped ⚡), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (45' Tipped ⚡), Taine Tuaupiki (68') · Sea Eagles: Reuben Garrick (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (17' Tipped ⚡), Josh Feledy (49' Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (51' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (65' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 72% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Sept 2026, 05:42 pm · Last updated: 5 Sept 2026, 04:57 pm_

Warriors 31–30 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 27 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Final score: Warriors 31, Sea Eagles 30. One point in it. But split the match into three acts and it looks nothing like a one-point game.

Act one belonged to nobody. Reuben Garrick opened the scoring in the 5th, Lehi Hopoate had the Sea Eagles up 10-4 by the 17th, and it felt like the tighter contest the history books promised. Then the Warriors found 20 unanswered points between the 21st and 45th minutes, three of them from Taine Tuaupiki and two from Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, and by half-time it was 20-12. A 12-point cushion built almost entirely in one stretch.

Act two undid most of it. Sea Eagles hit back with 18 unanswered points of their own from the 49th to the 66th, Josh Feledy and a second Hopoate try either side of a second Garrick four-pointer, and suddenly a laugher was a genuine arm-wrestle again. The lead changed hands three times in all, and Reuben Garrick's second try in the 65th put the visitors in front, 28-24. Tuaupiki's third try got the Warriors back ahead at 28-30, before Chanel Harris-Tavita settled it with a field goal in the 77th. That's the real story here: a 12-point Warriors lead at its widest, wiped out, and the whole thing coming down to one field goal in the last three minutes.

The stat sheet tells you why it stayed that close. Warriors ran away with territory and ball control, 60% possession, an 80% completion rate against 67%, and 1,751 running metres to 1,273. That kind of yardage edge usually buries a team. It didn't, because the Sea Eagles were sharper with what they had: 9 line breaks to 6, 12 offloads to 8, and a tackle efficiency of 87.5% against the Warriors' 79.1%. Their backline and hooker were rated stronger coming in, 1,181 to 1,051 and 963 to 630, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the ability to make breaks off less ball.

Discipline mattered too. Warriors conceded 5 penalties to 7 and Ben Trbojevic spent ten minutes in the bin from the 27th, a spell in which the Warriors banked 4 points. Small margins, but in a one-point finish every one of them counts.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad marked his 150th NRL game with two tries, which is about as good a way as any to celebrate a milestone.

Alphr's model had Warriors at 72% to win and picked the margin at 10.2. It got the winner right and the shape of the game wrong: the Sea Eagles covered the 10.5-point line comfortably, and while the over on 48.5 total points landed, the margin band call only just scraped in given how the lead swung three times. Form going in said this should have been a canter, five straight Warriors wins against two from the Sea Eagles, an average margin of plus-23.8 against minus-5.2. On the night, the ledger was much closer than either side's recent run suggested it would be.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| Sea Eagles | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **60%** | Possession | 40% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,751** | Run metres | 1,273 |
| **550** | Post-contact metres | 281 |
| 6 | Line breaks | **9** |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| 8 | Offloads | **12** |
| 79.1% | Effective tackle % | **87.5%** |
| **35** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **8** | Errors | 12 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 457 | Kick metres | **500** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 10.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 7/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 10.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (404 career games). The combined score of 61 points was 19 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Warriors bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 51% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Sin Bin — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 45' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 48' Try — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 24-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 51' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 24-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 64' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 24-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 67' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 28-30 · win-prob swing +19 pts
- 77' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 31-30 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.31 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 72% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 214 ELO points clear, 1686 to 1472. Form leans Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warriors by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 49. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 31-30 in 2026 Round 27.

On the ladder it's Warriors 1st against Sea Eagles 9th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.31 and Sea Eagles $3.47, with the line at Warriors -10.5 and the total at 48.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 14.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 4 · Sea Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 31-30 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 1st · Sea Eagles 9th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.31 · Sea Eagles $3.47 |
| Line | Warriors -10.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 14.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Gerard Sutton** — 404 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 11W–17L | 39% |
| Sea Eagles | 24W–23L | 51% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 12-point edge: 24W–23L (51%) vs Warriors's 11W–17L (39%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 40.2pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 1821.8m | Run Metres | 1577.4m |
| 8.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 314.8 | Tackles | 311.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W | 40.2 |
| Sea Eagles | R21 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 W | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 27 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R2 | Warriors | 36 – 16 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R24 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 10 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R6 | Warriors | 22 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R25 | Warriors | 29 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 13th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Laban, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.96 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.35/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.65/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.35/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.61/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.48/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.3/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 8 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 64 · 44 | 67 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 664m/g | 743m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 75.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 18 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 528m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.4) +10% · Centres 0.78/g (lg 0.72) +8% · Wingers 1.17/g (lg 1.28) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·4·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 10/35g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 45' |
| 2 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 11/40g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/13g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 16 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 5/6g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 71% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/9g | 16/34g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 3/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 0/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Healey | HK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 1/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 8 in 23g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 4/18g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 3/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Makaia Tafua | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Gannon | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 8 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 11/12g | 3/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 15 in 22g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·0·0·1·2) | 10/7g | 4/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Josh Feledy | CE | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 9 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/10g | 2/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 65' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 17 in 22g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 51' |
| 6 | Clayton Faulalo | 5/8 | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 43% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Nathan Brown | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 2/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Caleb Navale | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1686 · Sea Eagles 1472 · ELO difference: 214 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1077 | 1075 | Warriors +2 |
| Backs | 1051 | 1181 | Sea Eagles +130 |
| Halves | 1424 | 1389 | Warriors +35 |
| Hooker | 630 | 963 | Sea Eagles +333 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 30.7% | Warriors |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 23.6% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 14.2% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 8.8% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 6.9% | Warriors |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.2% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Referee Tendency | 2.4% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Warriors predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-05 06:57 UTC (latest tip update)