# Titans v Dolphins — NRL Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 20 – 24 Dolphins

_Dolphins hit back to outswim Titans._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 28% / Dolphins 72% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Fri, 04 Sept, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jayden Campbell (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), AJ Brimson (10' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Campbell (70' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (24' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (27' Tipped ⚡), Ray Stone (45'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (47' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 72% | Won |
| Titans | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Sept 2026, 05:42 pm · Last updated: 4 Sept 2026, 07:58 pm_

Titans 20–24 Dolphins in NRL Round 27 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Dolphins edged out the Titans 24-20 at Cbus Super Stadium, defying the model's expectation of an 11-point margin. The model had predicted a Dolphins win with a 72% probability, but the match was tighter than anticipated. The Dolphins overturned a 14-12 half-time deficit, showcasing their ability to rally in the second half.

Jayden Campbell was pivotal for the Titans early on, scoring twice and helping them to a 14-0 lead within 16 minutes. However, the Dolphins responded with 24 unanswered points between the 24th and 49th minutes. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was key, scoring twice and keeping the Dolphins in the game.

A turning point came in the 23rd minute when Keano Kini of the Titans was sin-binned for a second effort. The Dolphins capitalised, scoring 12 points during his absence. Despite the Titans' stronger backline and hooker ratings, it was the Dolphins' forwards and halves that made the difference in those crucial minutes.

The Titans had more possession at 53% and a higher completion rate of 85%, but couldn't convert these into a win. They made only 9 errors compared to the Dolphins' 16, yet the Dolphins were sharper in attack, breaking the line five times to the Titans' two. This attacking edge was crucial in narrowing the expected margin.

Penalty discipline was another area where the Titans excelled, conceding only 4 penalties to the Dolphins' 7. However, this advantage didn't translate into points. The Dolphins' effective tackle rate of 91% stifled the Titans' attack. Despite the Titans' superior kick metres, reaching 656 compared to the Dolphins' 540, the Dolphins' ability to break through the Titans' defence was decisive.

The match marked milestones for Jayden Campbell and Max Plath, with Campbell making a significant impact. Although the Titans didn't win, Campbell's performance was a highlight in a challenging game.

Moeaki Fotuaika’s sin-bin in the 78th minute added late drama, but didn't change the score. Unlike the earlier sin-bin, the Dolphins couldn't take advantage of the extra man. The Titans held firm, but it was too late to alter the outcome.

Overall, the Dolphins' ability to defy the model's predicted margin showed their resilience and adaptability. While the Titans covered the 12.5-point line, they couldn't break their five-game losing streak. The Dolphins' win solidified their top-four position, validating the model's prediction of their favourability.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Dolphins | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,836 | Run metres | **1,879** |
| 709 | Post-contact metres | **712** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 37 |
| 1 | Offloads | **10** |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.0%** |
| **37** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **9** | Errors | 16 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **656** | Kick metres | 540 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 11.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Dolphins trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–24. The model went 9/17 on this match. Titans covered the 12.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 57.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 44 points was 6 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Sin Bin — Keano Kini (Titans) — 10-0 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 24' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 44' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 14-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 70' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 18-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 78' Sin Bin — Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans) — 18-24 · win-prob swing -6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.24 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 11 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 72% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 389 ELO points clear, 1668 to 1279. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The margin model has Dolphins by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 52. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Titans 3, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Dolphins 3rd.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Titans $4.10 and Dolphins $1.24, with the line at Titans +12.5 and the total at 57.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 11.8 penalties a game (average), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Titans 1 · Dolphins 7 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 24-20 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Dolphins 3rd |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Titans $4.10 · Dolphins $1.24 |
| Line | Titans +12.5 · total 57.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 11.8 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 59 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Dolphins | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 50.1 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 50.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Dolphins).

Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Dolphins's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 36.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -19.2pts | Avg Margin | 13.6pts |
| 1714.0m | Run Metres | 1829.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 360.4 | Tackles | 359.8 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L | 16.8 |
| Dolphins | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Dolphins | 18 – 14 | Titans | Dolphins 64% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Dolphins | 36 – 30 | Titans | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Titans | 10 – 36 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Dolphins | 14 – 21 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R4 | Titans | 14 – 30 | Dolphins | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 8th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.61 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 21 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th) | 1.74/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.43/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.87/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.52/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.74/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.61/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 20 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 68 | 77 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 766m/g | 866m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 20.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 82.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 21 | 13 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 477m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 91% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.4) +55% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.28) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/26g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 31/74g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 15 in 23g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 42/74g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 17/46g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 70' |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/83g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 8/46g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurtis Morrin | 2R | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | CE | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 15/53g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/41g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Bodhi Sharpley | RES | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Verrills | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/35g | 6% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 4/5g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 47' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 23g | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/14g | 3/12g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 5 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 12 in 22g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 5/11g | 2/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 14% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 16 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | RES | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1279 · Dolphins 1668 · ELO difference: 389 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1055 | 1076 | Dolphins +20 |
| Backs | 1048 | 1019 | Titans +29 |
| Halves | 1194 | 1213 | Dolphins +19 |
| Hooker | 1172 | 1063 | Titans +109 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 52.7% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 16.8% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 6.1% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 5.2% | Titans |
| 5 | Halves Control | 4.4% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.8% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-04 09:58 UTC (latest tip update)