# Sharks v Storm — NRL Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 20 – 24 Storm

_Storm fight back to thunder past Sharks._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 29% / Storm 71% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Sione Katoa (31' Tipped ⚡), Riley Jones (35'), Billy Burns (39') · Storm: Hugo Peel (12' 1st), Sualauvi Faalogo (19'), Alec MacDonald (47'), Trent Loiero (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 71% | Won |
| Sharks | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Sept 2026, 05:42 pm · Last updated: 5 Sept 2026, 09:31 pm_

Sharks 20–24 Storm in NRL Round 27 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Storm winning by 12. They won by 4, and needed a two-score sin-bin advantage plus a missed-tackle horror show to get there. Call that a partial hit: right team, wrong story.

Storm led 10-0 inside 19 minutes, Hugo Peel opening the scoring and Sualauvi Faalogo following up, both converted by Nick Meaney. That burst came while the Sharks were down to twelve men, Michael Gabrael binned in the 5th for a dangerous tackle, then Ronaldo Mulitalo in the 10th. Storm cashed in 6 points off the first sin bin and 12 off the second. Eighteen points off two indiscretions is how a side with a lower ELO rating builds a 12-point buffer against the run of play.

Then the Sharks found 18 unanswered points between the 31st and 40th minute. Sione Katoa, Riley Jones and Billy Burns all crossed inside that nine-minute stretch, Niwhai Puru converting the lot, and by the break it was 18-12 Sharks. That's the passage that flips the model's read on its head. Storm were meant to win the forward and backline battles and grind the Sharks down. Instead the home side scored three tries in the time it takes to make a cup of tea.

Storm clawed it back after the break. Alec MacDonald's try in the 47th got them within two, Puru's penalty goal on 61 minutes actually stretched the Sharks out to 20-18, and it took until the 80th minute for Trent Loiero to snatch it, Meaney's conversion sealing 24-20. Two lead changes in the match, and the last one came with no time left on the clock.

The stat sheet tells you why Storm were always going to be dangerous late. They ran 56 tackle breaks to the Sharks' 22 and offloaded 18 times to 9, numbers that back up the pre-match read on their stronger backline (1141 to 1015) and forward pack (1063 to 1042). Effective tackling was 90.0% against 81.1%, and the Sharks missed a staggering 58 tackles to Storm's 22. When your line speed is that porous, four line breaks to three doesn't need to be a big gap to hurt.

The Sharks won the arm-wrestle in other areas. They had more run metres, 1,347 to 1,298, more post-contact metres at 481, and controlled territory with 644 kick metres to 534. Fewer penalties too, 5 conceded to Storm's 8. None of that stopped 56 tackle busts finding cracks late.

Form lined up with the ratings more than the ladder did. Storm came in averaging 30 points a game across their last five against the Sharks' 23.2, and a plus 4.8 margin against minus 1.6. That gap showed up when it mattered, in the last twenty minutes, even after the Sharks' sin-bin-assisted deficit and their own second-quarter surge.

Three from sixteen on the settled markets isn't a banner day for the model, but the shape of the call, Storm by more class in the backs and forwards eventually telling, held up. The margin band did too. Just not the manner in which it arrived.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 18 | 2 | 20 |
| Storm | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | 75% |
| 1,394 | Run metres | **1,479** |
| **528** | Post-contact metres | 444 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **50** |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| 82.2% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 50 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **661** | Kick metres | 536 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 71% probability. The predicted margin of 12.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Storm trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–24. The model went 3/16 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (120 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Sin Bin — Michael Gabrael (Sharks) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 9' Sin Bin — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 11' Try — Hugo Peel (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 34' Try — Riley Jones (Sharks) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 46' Try — Alec MacDonald (Storm) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 79' Try — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.36 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 70.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 12 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 71% to see off Sharks. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 86 ELO points clear, 1567 to 1481, so the model is backing Storm against the ratings gap.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 12.0, with the two sides combining for about 52. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sharks 5th against Storm 11th.

The market has Storm favourites, Sharks $3.16 and Storm $1.36, with the line at Sharks +8.5 and the total at 51.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 15.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 3 · Storm 7 |
| Last meeting | Storm 24-20 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 5th · Storm 11th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Sharks $3.16 · Storm $1.36 |
| Line | Sharks +8.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 15.4 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 120 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 13W–5L | 72% |
| Storm | 10W–4L | 71% |

Avg total: 46.7 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Sharks 13W–5L (72%) and Storm 10W–4L (71%). Games average 46.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Storm's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 1746.0m | Run Metres | 1588.4m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 332.2 | Tackles | 326.6 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 L | 23.2 |
| Storm | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R25 L · R26 W | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | PF | Storm | 22 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R17 | Storm | 30 – 6 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R11 | Sharks | 31 – 26 | Storm |
| 2024 | FW1 | Storm | 37 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R10 | Storm | 18 – 25 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.61 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tuimalatu-Brown, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.39/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 8th) | 0.83/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.48/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 1.61/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.48/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 17 | 18 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 3/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 226m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 63 · 55 | 65 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 736m/g | 663m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.3/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 75.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 13 | 14 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 475m/g | 520m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.36/g (lg 1.28) +6% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 10 in 23g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/9g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 15 in 17g | 13/10g (1·3·2·1·1·0·1·0·2·2) | 7/9g | 2/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Riley Jones | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 4 | Michael Gabrael | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 12 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 5/9g | 4/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Riley Pollard | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Niwhai Puru | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Hohepa Puru | HK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | RES | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | 5 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/9g | 16% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 17 in 23g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tyran Wishart | CE | 6 in 18g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | RES | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 47' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1567 vs 1481), but the market favours Storm (@1.36). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1567 · Storm 1481 · ELO difference: 86 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1042 | 1063 | Storm +21 |
| Backs | 1015 | 1141 | Storm +127 |
| Halves | 1155 | 1166 | Storm +11 |
| Hooker | 761 | 1008 | Storm +247 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 19.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Halves Control | 18.7% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 17.1% | Storm |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 14.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 13.7% | Storm |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 3.8% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Storm predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-05 11:31 UTC (latest tip update)