# Rabbitohs v Roosters — NRL Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 50 – 20 Roosters

_Rabbitohs burrow past Roosters._

Half time: 20 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 74% / Roosters 26% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 04 Sept, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: David Fifita (5' 1st), Jayden Sullivan (13'), Alex Johnston (16' Tipped ⚡), Campbell Graham (32' Tipped ⚡), Euan Aitken (47'), Cody Walker (56' Tipped ⚡), Adam Elliott (62'), Campbell Graham (66' Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (71' Tipped ⚡), Brandon Smith (77') · Roosters: Daniel Tupou (21' Tipped ⚡), Rex Bassingthwaighte (50'), Egan Butcher (53'), Rex Bassingthwaighte (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 74% | Won |
| Roosters | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.7 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Sept 2026, 05:42 pm · Last updated: 4 Sept 2026, 10:04 pm_

Rabbitohs 50–20 Roosters in NRL Round 27 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Rabbitohs missed 23 tackles to the Roosters' 53, a difference that helped the Rabbitohs to a 50-20 win at Allianz Stadium. The Rabbitohs' forwards and backs found space consistently, leading to ten tries and a 30-point margin. The Rabbitohs were up 20-4 at half-time and never looked back.

Possession favoured the Rabbitohs, who held 60% of the ball. This translated into significant yardage, with the Rabbitohs making 1,890 run metres to the Roosters' 1,081. Post-contact metres also showed the Rabbitohs winning the collisions, 617 to 391.

The Rabbitohs' attack was clinical, converting opportunities into points. David Fifita opened the scoring in the fifth minute, with Jayden Sullivan and Alex Johnston quickly following to give the Rabbitohs a 14-0 lead within 16 minutes. Campbell Graham, Euan Aitken, Cody Walker, Adam Elliott, Latrell Mitchell and Brandon Smith also crossed for the Rabbitohs. Campbell Graham finished with two tries. The Roosters managed to respond through Daniel Tupou, Rex Bassingthwaighte, and Egan Butcher. Rex Bassingthwaighte scored two tries for the Roosters.

The game broke open further in the second half. While the Roosters had a brief resurgence with tries in the 50th and 53rd minutes to make it 24-14, the Rabbitohs then scored 26 unanswered points between the 56th and 77th minutes. This run included tries to Cody Walker, Adam Elliott, Campbell Graham, Latrell Mitchell, and Brandon Smith. The Rabbitohs' ability to create line breaks was evident, making 12 to the Roosters' four.

Both sides had a player sin-binned in the 73rd minute, Lachlan Hubner for the Rabbitohs and De La Salle Va'a for the Roosters. While Lachlan Hubner was off the field, the Roosters scored a converted try through Rex Bassingthwaighte in the 79th minute. While De La Salle Va'a was off the field, the Rabbitohs scored a converted try through Brandon Smith in the 77th minute.

The Rabbitohs' ball control was superior, completing 85% of their sets compared to the Roosters' 62%. They also kept their errors to eight, while the Roosters committed 13. Discipline was also a factor, with the Rabbitohs conceding only two penalties for the entire match, compared to the Roosters' seven. The Rabbitohs conceded two penalties in the first half and none in the second, while the Roosters conceded five in the first half and two in the second.

The Alphr model had given the Rabbitohs a 74% probability of winning, which proved correct. However, the predicted margin of 11.7 points was well short of the actual 30-point difference. The combined total score of 70 points was also significantly higher than the model's projection of 47. The model had placed faith in the Rabbitohs' halves and backline quality, which delivered. Their positional strength ratings showed the Rabbitohs with an edge in halves, 1165 to 900, and backs, 983 to 863.

The Rabbitohs' form coming into the match was three wins from their last five, while the Roosters also had three wins from their last five. The Roosters had been conceding 17.4 points on average in their last five, but conceded 50 points in this match. The model had identified no edge in the market's price for this match, but the Rabbitohs' performance was stronger than anticipated.

The pre-match preview noted milestones for Keaon Koloamatangi, David Fifita, and Peter Mamouzelos. David Fifita opened the scoring for the Rabbitohs in the fifth minute. The Roosters had won their last meeting at Allianz Stadium, 26-18, but the Rabbitohs reversed that result with a 50-20 victory. Referee Adam Gee, known for an average of 16.1 penalties per game, oversaw a match with nine penalties conceded in total.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 20 | 30 | 50 |
| Roosters | 4 | 16 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **60%** | Possession | 40% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 62% |
| **1,890** | Run metres | 1,081 |
| **617** | Post-contact metres | 391 |
| **12** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **53** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| **87.3%** | Effective tackle % | 84.7% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 53 |
| **8** | Errors | 13 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **468** | Kick metres | 419 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.7 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 70 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 47. Rabbitohs led 20–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 6/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (308 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 67% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 13' Try — Jayden Sullivan (Rabbitohs) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 16' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 21' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 32' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 18-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 24-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 50' Try — Rex Bassingthwaighte (Roosters) — 24-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 52' Try — Egan Butcher (Roosters) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 56' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 28-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 61' Penalty Try — Adam Elliott (Rabbitohs) — 34-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 65' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 40-14 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 44-14 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — Lachlan Hubner (Rabbitohs) — 44-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — De La Salle Va'a (Roosters) — 44-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Brandon Smith (Rabbitohs) — 48-14 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Rex Bassingthwaighte (Roosters) — 50-18 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.10 (edge -12.8%) — model probability 73.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 12 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 74% to see off Roosters. The ratings say otherwise: Roosters sit 109 ELO points clear, 1634 to 1525, so the model is backing Rabbitohs against the ratings gap.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Hooker & Ruck. The model still sides with Rabbitohs, which says Halves Control and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 11.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. Rabbitohs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 50-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Roosters have won 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Roosters 6.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 6th against Roosters 4th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.10 and Roosters $7.00, with the line at Rabbitohs -21.5 and the total at 54.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 50-20 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 6th · Roosters 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.10 · Roosters $7.00 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -21.5 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.1 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 308 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 15W–20L | 43% |
| Roosters | 28W–14L | 67% |

Avg total: 43.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 28 of 42 games (67%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 15 from 35 (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.7. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.6pts |
| 1636.2m | Run Metres | 1808.6m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 337.4 | Tackles | 343.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 W | 26.8 |
| Roosters | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Roosters | 26 – 18 | Rabbitohs | Roosters 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Roosters | 36 – 6 | Rabbitohs | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 14 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 36 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | R3 | Roosters | 48 – 6 | Rabbitohs | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 7th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 3rd there (0.87 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 8th) | 1.09/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 10th) | 1.61/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.65/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 14 | 18 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 77 · 52 | 73 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 730m/g | 727m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.6/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 20 | 11 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 575m/g | 570m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.28) +25% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.28) +50% · Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.41) +27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 29 in 20g | 14/10g (0·4·0·1·1·1·3·1·2·1) | 20/25g | 14/21g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.33 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (2·0·1·2·1·4·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 23/41g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/20g | 2/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 11 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 66' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | INT | 8 in 22g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/23g | 2/16g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 2% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/19g | 12% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 12 | Adam Elliott | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 6% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/17g | 1/11g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Dufty | RES | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Ramsey | FB | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/10g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 15% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 2% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 12 in 13g | 11/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 13/26g | 80/105g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Fetalaiga Pauga | CE | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 0/8g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Tommy Talau | CE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 15% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 3% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Rex Bassingthwaighte | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 13% | — | 🏉 50' 79' |
| 6 | Reece Foley | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Rodwell | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Egan Butcher | 2R | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/28g | 2% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 13 | Connor Watson | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 7/53g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Rodwell | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Taylor Losalu | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | De La Salle Va'a | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aston Warwick | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1634 vs 1525), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.10). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1525 · Roosters 1634 · ELO difference: 109 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1049 | 1042 | Rabbitohs +7 |
| Backs | 983 | 863 | Rabbitohs +120 |
| Halves | 1165 | 900 | Rabbitohs +265 |
| Hooker | 666 | 1031 | Roosters +365 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 37.1% | Roosters |
| 2 | Halves Control | 21.1% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 12.9% | Roosters |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 7.9% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 5.7% | Roosters |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 5.2% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-04 12:04 UTC (latest tip update)