# Warriors v Knights — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 46 – 32 Knights

_Warriors march past Knights._

Half time: 22 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 74% / Knights 26% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Jacob Laban (19'), Wayde Egan (23'), Erin Clark (26'), Demitric Vaimauga (35'), Ali Leiataua (43' Tipped ⚡), Adam Pompey (51'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (62' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Laban (76') · Knights: Fletcher Hunt (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Francis Manuleleua (10'), Jermaine McEwen (15'), Fletcher Hunt (40' 1st Tipped 🎯), Greg Marzhew (55' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 74% | Won |
| Knights | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 30 Aug 2026, 04:04 pm_

Warriors 46–32 Knights in NRL Round 26 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a game of rugby league, and Go Media Stadium got both on display. Warriors held the ball longer and looked after it, 54% possession to Knights' 46%, and completed at 79% against Knights' 75%. Knights went the more direct route, breaking the line 11 times to 8 and offloading 8 times to 7, backing their footwork to create something even without the ball as often. They paid for that ambition. Warriors 46, Knights 32.

The Knights actually played the better opening quarter of an hour. Fletcher Hunt opened the scoring in the 4th minute and Francis Manuleleua followed in the 10th to make it 0-8. Jacob Saifiti was sent off in the 12th minute for a dangerous tackle, and three minutes later Jermaine McEwen crossed to push it out to 0-14, on the way to the biggest margin of the match, 16 points. From that point, playing a man down, Knights were still outscored 46-22 across the remaining 68 minutes, which is about as clear a story as a stat can tell.

Warriors' response was a 22-point stretch between the 19th and 37th minutes: four tries from Jacob Laban, Wayde Egan, Erin Clark and Demitric Vaimauga turned a 16-point deficit into a 20-16 lead. Hunt's second try just before the break made it 22-20 at half-time, still a contest on the scoreboard even if the extra man was starting to tell.

The shape of the second half belonged to Warriors. Tries to Ali Leiataua and Adam Pompey stretched it to 32-20, Greg Marzhew hit back twice for Knights to get within four at 34-30, and then Alofiana Khan-Pereira and a second from Laban in the 76th minute closed it out. A late captain's challenge from Knights went nowhere.

The forward pack numbers explain a lot of it. Warriors ran for 1,808 metres to 1,415 and put up 600 post-contact metres to 356, busting 55 tackles to 37. That's a pack going forward with a man extra in the middle third, and it shows up in the missed tackle count too: Knights missed 55 tackles to Warriors' 37, the spent legs from playing a body down showing directly in the defensive line. Warriors' penalty count of just 3, against Knights' 8, tells the same story: one side controlling the ruck and the count, the other chasing the game a man light.

Knights weren't without their own case, though. They were the cleaner side with ball in hand, just 10 errors to 14, and completed at 75% to Warriors' 79%, not far off despite playing most of the match with 12 men. They controlled the boot too, kicking for 424 metres to 296, and still managed 11 line breaks to Warriors' 8. Ambition wasn't the problem. Numbers were.

The pre-match read had Warriors favourites at 74% and expected them to win by 12.9 points. They won by 14, so the margin call landed close to the mark even if the shape of the game looked nothing like the forecast. Nobody had 78 points in a 44-point projection, and a match that spent 68 minutes as a 13-on-12 contest is the obvious place to look for where those extra points came from. Warriors' halves rating of 1424 against Knights' 1048 pointed to a gap in game-management class before a ball was kicked, and once Knights lost a forward, that gap only widened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| Knights | 20 | 12 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,808** | Run metres | 1,415 |
| **600** | Post-contact metres | 356 |
| 8 | Line breaks | **11** |
| **55** | Tackle breaks | 37 |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 82.9% | Effective tackle % | **84.6%** |
| **37** | Missed tackles | 55 |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 296 | Kick metres | **424** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 12.9 vs the actual margin of 14 points. The game's 78 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 44. Warriors led 22–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (307 career games). The combined score of 78 points was 35 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Warriors have a 46% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 9' Try — Francis Manuleleua (Knights) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Wayde Egan (Warriors) — 8-16 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 26' Try — Erin Clark (Warriors) — 14-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Demitric Vaimauga (Warriors) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 39' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 22-20 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 42' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 26-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 32-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 54' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 34-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 57' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 34-30 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 62' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 38-32 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 76' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 44-32 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 74% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 184 ELO points clear, 1671 to 1486. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The margin model has Warriors by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-10 in 2026 Round 29.

On the ladder it's Warriors 1st against Knights 6th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.33 and Knights $3.35, with the line at Warriors -9.5 and the total at 48.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-10 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 1st · Knights 6th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Warriors $1.33 · Knights $3.35 |
| Line | Warriors -9.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.7 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Adam Gee** — 307 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 16W–19L | 46% |
| Knights | 9W–20L | 31% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Warriors have won 16 of 35 games (46%), significantly stronger than Knights's 9 from 29 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Knights's -0.5. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.8pts |
| 1777.8m | Run Metres | 1610.0m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 341.8 | Tackles | 328.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 32.2 |
| Knights | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Warriors | 10 – 12 | Knights | Warriors 55% ✗ |
| 2026 | R3 | Knights | 12 – 38 | Warriors | Warriors 58% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Knights | 15 – 20 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Warriors | 26 – 12 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.27 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.09 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.74 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.91 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.36/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.91/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.74/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.27/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.65/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.09/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.41/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.26/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 8 | 14 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 207m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 62 · 40 | 69 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 672m/g | 745m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 20.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 75.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 13 | 19 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 592m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.22) +41% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.41) +10% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.72) +10% · Wingers 1.13/g (lg 1.28) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/12g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 4 | Leka Halasima | CE | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 10/19g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 15 in 16g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 4/5g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 2/40g | 8% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 1/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 6 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 2/17g | 24% | — | 🏉 19' 76' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/20g | 12% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 14 | Sam Healey | Replacement | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/20g | 4% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Fletcher Hunt | WG | 11 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 40' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 7/23g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 22 in 22g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1) | 7/8g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' 57' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 12 in 21g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harrison Graham | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1671 · Knights 1486 · ELO difference: 184 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1173 | 1004 | Warriors +169 |
| Backs | 1095 | 1087 | Warriors +8 |
| Halves | 1424 | 1048 | Warriors +375 |
| Hooker | 997 | 705 | Warriors +292 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 26.6% | Warriors |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 18.9% | Warriors |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 14.1% | Warriors |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 12.4% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.7% | Warriors |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.8% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Warriors predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-30 06:04 UTC (latest tip update)