# Warriors v Knights — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Warriors v Knights?

Alphr's NRL model makes Warriors a clear 74% favourite over Knights in Round 26. Predicted result: Warriors by 13 in a low-scoring game (44 total, under the 48.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Warriors lead on Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Chanel Harris-Tavita leads at +29.3% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 73.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Warriors here: 74% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 184 ELO points clear, 1671 to 1486. Form leans Warriors's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The margin model has Warriors by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $2.45 — model probability 70.1% (edge +29.3%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.40 — model probability 58.6% (edge +17.0%)
- Leka Halasima @ $2.30 — model probability 49.4% (edge +5.9%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.00 — model probability 54.1% (edge +4.1%)
- Bradman Best @ $3.20 — model probability 27.7% (edge -3.5%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $1.43 — model probability 65.5% (edge -4.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 22.6% (edge +14.9%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $10.00 — model probability 19.9% (edge +9.9%)
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $13.00 — model probability 16.1% (edge +8.4%)
- Fletcher Hunt @ $10.00 — model probability 12.1% (edge +2.1%)
- Bradman Best @ $15.00 — model probability 8.3% (edge +1.6%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.8pts |
| 1777.8m | Run Metres | 1610.0m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 341.8 | Tackles | 328.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 32.2 |
| Knights | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 28.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Adam Gee** — 307 career games since 2012.

When Adam Gee officiates, Warriors have won 16 of 35 games (46%), significantly stronger than Knights's 9 from 29 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 14 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.5 against home vs 7.6 against away.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Warriors win, around 29–16 (total ~44 — under the 48.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Fletcher Sharpe (22.6%, +14.9% edge over market), then Greg Marzhew (19.9%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 48.5 line (model projects 44). Referee Adam Gee's games average 42.9.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)