# Titans v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Titans v Rabbitohs?

Alphr's NRL model makes Rabbitohs a clear 66% favourite over Titans in Round 26. Predicted result: Rabbitohs by 8 in a low-scoring game (51 total, under the 53.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Rabbitohs lead on Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Latrell Mitchell leads at +50.1% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 66% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 211 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1297. Form leans Rabbitohs's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. Rabbitohs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Latrell Mitchell @ $2.75 — model probability 86.5% (edge +50.1%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $2.85 — model probability 56.0% (edge +20.9%)
- Alex Johnston @ $1.39 — model probability 86.5% (edge +14.5%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $2.15 — model probability 57.8% (edge +11.2%)
- Campbell Graham @ $1.74 — model probability 64.4% (edge +6.9%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $2.70 — model probability 38.3% (edge +1.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jayden Campbell @ $15.00 — model probability 13.4% (edge +6.8%)
- Phillip Sami @ $9.00 — model probability 15.1% (edge +4.0%)
- Alex Johnston @ $6.00 — model probability 19.2% (edge +2.5%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $15.00 — model probability 7.9% (edge +1.2%)
- AJ Brimson @ $18.00 — model probability 6.0% (edge +40.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 1722.0m | Run Metres | 1585.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 343.8 | Tackles | 341.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 20.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 24.0 |

### Referee Insight

**Liam Kennedy** — 70 career games since 2012.

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Rabbitohs have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Rabbitohs get a +2.0 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Titans's +0.3. 70% of his 10 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Rabbitohs win, around 29–21 (total ~51 — under the 53.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Alex Johnston (19.2%, +2.5% edge over market), then Phillip Sami (15.1%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 53.5 line (model projects 51). Referee Liam Kennedy's games average 46.6.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)