# Titans v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 22 – 42 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs scamper past Titans._

Half time: 6 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 34% / Rabbitohs 66% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (31'), Oliver Pascoe (48'), Sialetili Faeamani (53'), AJ Brimson (72' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Cameron Murray (3' 1st), Keaon Koloamatangi (13'), Euan Aitken (19'), David Fifita (21'), Cameron Murray (25' 1st), Tallis Duncan (70' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (77' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 66% | Won |
| Titans | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Titans vs Rabbitohs Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 29 Aug 2026, 04:56 pm_

Titans 22–42 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 26 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Rabbitohs secured a 42–22 victory over the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium, largely thanks to a commanding first-half performance. By the 27th minute, the Rabbitohs had established a 28-point lead, making it difficult for the Titans to catch up. The early scoreboard pressure was crucial.

Cameron Murray got the Rabbitohs rolling with a try in the third minute. By the 25th minute, Murray had added another, and the Rabbitohs had racked up 26 points without reply. Keaon Koloamatangi, Euan Aitken, and David Fifita also crossed the line during this period. Jayden Sullivan converted four of the five tries, helping the Rabbitohs to a 28-6 lead at half-time.

The Titans responded with Tino Fa'asuamaleaui scoring around the half-hour mark, with Jayden Campbell converting. At the break, the Titans trailed 28-6 but showed signs of life in the second half. Oliver Pascoe and Siale Faeamani scored tries, narrowing the gap to 12 points by the 53rd minute. A comeback seemed possible.

However, the Rabbitohs, with a stronger ELO rating of 1508 compared to the Titans' 1297, held firm. Tallis Duncan scored twice in the final ten minutes, and Alex Johnston added another try at the end. AJ Brimson's late try for the Titans was not enough to change the outcome.

The Rabbitohs demonstrated tactical superiority, kicking for 849 metres compared to the Titans' 545. Despite conceding more penalties (4 to the Titans' 2) and missing more tackles (48 to the Titans' 39), the Rabbitohs' attack was more effective, with eight line breaks to the Titans' five.

Both teams had equal possession and similar run metres, 1,917 for the Rabbitohs and 1,913 for the Titans. The Rabbitohs' completion rate was slightly better at 85% compared to the Titans' 82%. The Titans showed physicality with more tackle breaks and offloads, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Rabbitohs' early lead.

The Rabbitohs' backline, rated 1094 to the Titans' 983, proved decisive. Even though the halves were closely matched, the Rabbitohs executed their strategy more effectively. Their defence may have missed more tackles, but the Titans couldn't capitalise enough.

Alphr’s pre-match model predicted a Rabbitohs win, though it underestimated the margin at 7.9 points. The Rabbitohs' 20-point victory reflected their ability to put the game out of reach early. While the Titans showed resilience, the early deficit was insurmountable.

In the end, the Rabbitohs' early burst set a challenge the Titans couldn't meet. Rugby league is about seizing opportunities, and the Rabbitohs did just that. Their initial onslaught allowed them to control the game, and despite the Titans' efforts, the scoreboard pressure was too much to overcome.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| Rabbitohs | 28 | 14 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 82% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,913 | Run metres | **1,917** |
| **629** | Post-contact metres | 610 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 39 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| **89.7%** | Effective tackle % | 82.5% |
| **39** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 545 | Kick metres | **849** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (70 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 42% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 13' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 18' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 20' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 25' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 30' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 4-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 47' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 10-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Sialetili Faeamani (Titans) — 16-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 70' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 16-32 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 71' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 20-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 22-36 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 22-42 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 66% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 211 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1297. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. Rabbitohs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Rabbitohs have won 10 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 42-22 in 2026 Round 26.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Rabbitohs have put up 140 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Titans 3, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Rabbitohs 7th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Titans $3.21 and Rabbitohs $1.35, with the line at Titans +8.5 and the total at 53.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 0 · Rabbitohs 10 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 42-22 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Titans $3.21 · Rabbitohs $1.35 |
| Line | Titans +8.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Liam Kennedy** — 70 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–12L | 20% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Rabbitohs have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 1722.0m | Run Metres | 1585.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 343.8 | Tackles | 341.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 20.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Titans | 18 – 20 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R14 | Titans | 12 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R14 | Titans | 28 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2022 | R14 | Titans | 16 – 30 | Rabbitohs |
| 2021 | R22 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 11th) | 2.05/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.41/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 11th) | 1.36/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.77/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.59/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 199m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 82.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 65 | 74 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 759m/g | 727m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 16.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 20 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 486m/g | 574m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.28) +54% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.41) +29%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.41) +54% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.28) +39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | CE | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 30/73g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 15 in 22g | 9/10g (1·1·3·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/6g | 42/73g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 10 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 17/45g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/40g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 17% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 7/45g | 10% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 11 | Josh Patston | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Kurtis Morrin | 2R | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/82g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Randall | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Bodhi Sharpley | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Sommerton | RES | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 28 in 19g | 14/10g (1·0·4·0·1·1·1·3·1·2) | 16/13g | 15/9g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.39 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' 77' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/19g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 5/8g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 22/44g | 26% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/9g | 18% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/7g | 20% | — | 🏉 3' 25' |
| 14 | Jye Gray | RES | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1297 · Rabbitohs 1508 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1069 | 1072 | Rabbitohs +3 |
| Backs | 983 | 1094 | Rabbitohs +111 |
| Halves | 1259 | 1254 | Titans +5 |
| Hooker | 1063 | 940 | Titans +123 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 44.7% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.8% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 11.6% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 4.5% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.8% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 2.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-29 06:56 UTC (latest tip update)