# Titans v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 22 – 42 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs scamper past Titans._

Half time: 6 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 34% / Rabbitohs 66% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (31'), Oliver Pascoe (48'), Siale Faeamani (53'), AJ Brimson (72' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Cameron Murray (3' 1st), Keaon Koloamatangi (13'), Euan Aitken (19'), David Fifita (21'), Cameron Murray (25' 1st), Tallis Duncan (70' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (77' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 66% | Won |
| Titans | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 29 Aug 2026, 04:56 pm_

Titans 22–42 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 26 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight unanswered points in twenty-four minutes will do that to a scoreboard. Rabbitohs had the Titans buried by the 27th minute, up 28-0, and by half-time it was 28-6. The final margin, 42-22, never looked in doubt after that, no matter what Gold Coast did with the rest of the night.

Cameron Murray got it rolling in the 3rd minute and added a second in the 25th, sandwiching tries to Keaon Koloamatangi, Euan Aitken and David Fifita. Jayden Sullivan slotted four of five conversions in that stretch. Gold Coast's only response before the break came from Tino Fa'asuamaleaui in the 31st, a token six points against a 28-point deficit.

Then the Titans actually played some footy. Oliver Pascoe crossed in the 48th, Siale Faeamani followed in the 53rd, and suddenly it was 16-28 with the margin looking almost human again, 16 unanswered points of their own between the 31st and 53rd minutes. It's the kind of run that makes a blowout look respectable on paper without changing who's winning the game.

Respectable didn't last. Tallis Duncan crossed twice, in the 70th and 77th, either side of AJ Brimson's try for the Titans, and Alex Johnston finished it off in the final minute. Rabbitohs closed out with 14 unanswered points once the Titans threatened to make it interesting.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock said. Rabbitohs were the cleaner side with ball in hand, 7 errors to 8 and an 85% completion rate, and they broke the line 8 times to the Titans' 5. Territory was theirs too, 849 kick metres to 545, which kept Gold Coast starting deep and playing catch-up all night.

Where the Titans actually won a battle, it didn't matter much. They busted more tackles, 48 to 39, offloaded 14 times to the Rabbitohs' 4, and their effective tackle percentage, 89.7% to 82.5%, was the better defensive read on paper. But Rabbitohs missed only 39 tackles to the Titans' 48, and every time Gold Coast built pressure through the middle, South Sydney's line held when it counted in that opening burst.

The form line pointed this way before kick-off. Rabbitohs came in on three wins from their last five to the Titans' one, and their backline rating of 1094 against Gold Coast's 983 showed up all night in the strike-power out wide. Alphr's model had Rabbitohs at 66% to win with an expected margin of 7.9, and while the win call landed, the margin was miles off, the actual gap running out at 20. Four from seventeen on the day's model card, a reminder that picking the winner and picking the distance are two very different jobs.

Gold Coast will point to the second-half fightback as proof of something, and fair enough, 16 points in 22 minutes isn't nothing. But you don't spot a team of this quality a 28-point start and expect to get away with it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| Rabbitohs | 28 | 14 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 82% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,913 | Run metres | **1,917** |
| **629** | Post-contact metres | 610 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 39 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| **89.7%** | Effective tackle % | 82.5% |
| **39** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 545 | Kick metres | **849** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (70 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 42% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 13' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 18' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 20' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 25' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 30' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 4-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 47' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 10-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Siale Faeamani (Titans) — 16-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 70' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 16-32 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 71' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 20-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 22-36 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 22-42 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 66% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 211 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1297. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. Rabbitohs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Rabbitohs have won 10 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 42-22 in 2026 Round 26.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Titans 3, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Rabbitohs 7th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Titans $3.21 and Rabbitohs $1.35, with the line at Titans +8.5 and the total at 53.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 0 · Rabbitohs 10 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 42-22 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Titans $3.21 · Rabbitohs $1.35 |
| Line | Titans +8.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Liam Kennedy** — 70 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–12L | 20% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Rabbitohs have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 1722.0m | Run Metres | 1585.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 343.8 | Tackles | 341.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 20.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Titans | 18 – 20 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R14 | Titans | 12 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R14 | Titans | 28 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2022 | R14 | Titans | 16 – 30 | Rabbitohs |
| 2021 | R22 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 11th) | 2.05/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.41/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 11th) | 1.36/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.77/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.59/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 199m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 82.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 65 | 74 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 759m/g | 727m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 16.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 20 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 486m/g | 574m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.28) +54% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.41) +29%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.41) +54% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.28) +39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | CE | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 30/73g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 15 in 22g | 9/10g (1·1·3·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/6g | 42/73g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 10 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 17/45g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/40g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 17% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 7/45g | 10% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 11 | Josh Patston | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Kurtis Morrin | 2R | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/82g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Randall | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Bodhi Sharpley | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Sommerton | RES | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 28 in 19g | 14/10g (1·0·4·0·1·1·1·3·1·2) | 16/13g | 15/9g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.39 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' 77' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/19g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 5/8g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 22/44g | 26% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/9g | 18% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/7g | 20% | — | 🏉 3' 25' |
| 14 | Jye Gray | RES | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1297 · Rabbitohs 1508 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1069 | 1072 | Rabbitohs +3 |
| Backs | 983 | 1094 | Rabbitohs +111 |
| Halves | 1259 | 1254 | Titans +5 |
| Hooker | 1063 | 940 | Titans +123 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 44.7% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.8% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 11.6% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 4.5% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.8% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 2.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-29 06:56 UTC (latest tip update)