# Sea Eagles v Dragons — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Sea Eagles v Dragons?

Alphr's NRL model makes Sea Eagles a clear 69% favourite over Dragons in Round 26. Predicted result: Sea Eagles by 11 in a low-scoring game (45 total, under the 48.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Sea Eagles lead on Team ELO, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Tyrell Sloan leads at +15.7% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Sea Eagles v Dragons
Fri, 28 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 68.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 69% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 198 ELO points clear, 1450 to 1252. Form leans Dragons's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Sea Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Tyrell Sloan @ $1.92 — model probability 67.8% (edge +15.7%)
- Jason Saab @ $1.72 — model probability 70.3% (edge +12.1%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.55 — model probability 50.6% (edge +11.3%)
- Hamish Stewart @ $3.50 — model probability 39.2% (edge +10.6%)
- Reuben Garrick @ $2.60 — model probability 48.2% (edge +9.7%)
- Mathew Feagai @ $1.99 — model probability 46.5% (edge -3.7%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Tyrell Sloan @ $10.00 — model probability 23.5% (edge +13.5%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $13.00 — model probability 14.6% (edge +6.9%)
- Hamish Stewart @ $17.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +4.4%)
- Jason Saab @ $8.50 — model probability 15.8% (edge +4.0%)
- Mathew Feagai @ $10.00 — model probability 13.0% (edge +3.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 34.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -13.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1509.4m | Run Metres | 1652.4m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 326.4 | Tackles | 380.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R20 L · R21 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 21.6 |
| Dragons | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 20.4 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Sea Eagles win, around 28–17 (total ~45 — under the 48.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Tyrell Sloan (23.5%, +13.5% edge over market), then Jason Saab (15.8%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 48.5 line (model projects 45).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-sea-eagles-v-dragons
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)