# Sea Eagles v Dragons — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 44 – 10 Dragons

_Sea Eagles swoop on Dragons._

Half time: 26 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 69% / Dragons 31% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Fri, 28 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Lehi Hopoate (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (17' Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (21' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (23' Tipped ⚡), Tom Trbojevic (27' Tipped ⚡), Josh Feledy (50'), Clayton Faulalo (55'), Haumole Olakau'atu (61'), Lehi Hopoate (73' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (68' Tipped ⚡), Moses Suli (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 69% | Won |
| Dragons | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 28 Aug 2026, 07:49 pm_

Sea Eagles 44–10 Dragons in NRL Round 26 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six nil at the break. The second half only widened the gap. At Brookvale Oval the Sea Eagles dominated the Dragons, finishing with a 44-10 victory. The Dragons never looked like turning it around.

The Sea Eagles set the tone early. Lehi Hopoate opened the scoring in the 8th minute. By the 27th minute they had already put four tries on the board through Lehi Hopoate, Jason Saab twice, Reuben Garrick and Tom Trbojevic. They continued their onslaught after the break, scoring three more tries by the 61st minute via Josh Feledy, Clayton Faulalo and Haumole Olakau'atu for that derived 40-point unanswered burst. The Dragons finally got on the board with a try from Tyrell Sloan in the 68th minute, followed by Moses Suli's try in the 77th. But by then the game was well out of reach.

The stats tell the story. The Sea Eagles controlled 59% of possession and completed 80% of their sets compared to the Dragons' 63%. They ran for 2,026 metres to the Dragons' 1,291, broke the line eight times to four, and made 37 tackle breaks to the Dragons' 22. The Sea Eagles also conceded just one penalty while the Dragons conceded four, giving the Sea Eagles an easier path to maintain field position. They kicked for 553 metres to control territory and ground out 647 post-contact metres.

Pre-match predictions didn't foresee such a one-sided affair. The Dragons were rated stronger in the forwards 1125 to 1035 and at hooker 1200 to 707. However the Sea Eagles' halves were rated significantly higher 1159 to 838 and that proved decisive. The Sea Eagles' spine turned their forward metres into eight line breaks and 647 post-contact metres. The Dragons' defence struggled, missing 37 tackles compared to the Sea Eagles' 22.

Individually Lehi Hopoate and Jason Saab were standout performers, each scoring two tries. Reuben Garrick, Tom Trbojevic, Josh Feledy, Clayton Faulalo and Haumole Olakau'atu also crossed the line, showcasing the Sea Eagles' attacking depth. Jamal Fogarty converted four of his attempts before the Dragons managed to score.

For the Dragons it was a game to forget. Despite having better average run metres and more line breaks in their last five games they couldn't replicate that form at Brookvale. Their 15 errors and 37 missed tackles highlighted their inability to maintain possession or defensive structure. Recent form had them at two wins from five but they arrived on a LLWWL run and simply fell apart.

Alphr's model had the Sea Eagles as 69% favourites, predicting a win by 11.4 points with a combined total of 45. While the model correctly picked the winner the actual margin of 34 points was far beyond the prediction. The Sea Eagles easily covered the 7.5-point line and the model ended up with 7 correct picks out of 17 on the match markets. A win for the model on the victor but a miss on the margin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 26 | 18 | 44 |
| Dragons | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **59%** | Possession | 41% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 63% |
| **2,026** | Run metres | 1,291 |
| **647** | Post-contact metres | 444 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| **87.7%** | Effective tackle % | 85.9% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **12** | Errors | 15 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **553** | Kick metres | 462 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 34 points. Sea Eagles led 26–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 7/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 7.5-point line.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 20' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 23' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 26' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 26-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 30-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 36-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 60' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 40-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 40-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 44-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 44-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 68.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 69% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 198 ELO points clear, 1450 to 1252. Form leans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Sea Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.41 and Dragons $2.93, with the line at Sea Eagles -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-10 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.41 · Dragons $2.93 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -7.5 · total 48.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 34.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -13.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1509.4m | Run Metres | 1652.4m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 326.4 | Tackles | 380.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R20 L · R21 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 21.6 |
| Dragons | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Dragons | 18 – 28 | Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Dragons | 24 – 40 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 20 | Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 14 | Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R4 | Dragons | 20 – 12 | Sea Eagles | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.05 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the right edge: NRL's 14th-ranked right edge attack (0.73 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 14th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Feagai, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.55/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.41/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.05/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.59/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.59/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.23/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.73/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.41/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 14 | 5 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 160m/g | 149m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 46 | 43 · 74 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 737m/g | 673m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.3% | 74.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 10 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 524m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.9/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.41) +37% · 2nd Rows 0.6/g (lg 0.47) +28%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 44/65g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 13 in 21g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 28/49g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 21' |
| 3 | Josh Feledy | CE | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 42/68g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 15 in 21g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 14/28g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 73' |
| 6 | Clayton Faulalo | 5/8 | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/17g | 41% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Nathan Brown | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 2/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 23/49g | 34% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/44g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 18/107g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Nicholas Lenaz | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Waddell | RES | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/40g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Caleb Navale | INT | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/5g | 17% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Atkinson | FB | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/26g | 14% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/13g | 3/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 10 in 18g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 2/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Muhleisen | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | RES | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1450 · Dragons 1252 · ELO difference: 198 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1035 | 1125 | Dragons +90 |
| Backs | 1088 | 1082 | Sea Eagles +7 |
| Halves | 1159 | 838 | Sea Eagles +320 |
| Hooker | 707 | 1200 | Dragons +493 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 60.5% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Halves Control | 9.8% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 8.2% | Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 8.2% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-28 09:49 UTC (latest tip update)