# Roosters v Dolphins — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 12 – 26 Dolphins

_Dolphins ride the wave past Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 62% / Dolphins 38% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Salesi Foketi (69') · Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (21' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (29' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (34' Tipped ⚡), Max Plath (38'), Jeremy Marshall-King (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 62% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 29 Aug 2026, 07:30 pm_

Roosters 12–26 Dolphins in NRL Round 26 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six minutes of football decided this one, and it wasn't the first six. Robert Toia scored inside six minutes to put the Roosters up 4-0, and for a quarter of an hour that looked like the day's shape. Then the Dolphins found something and didn't let go, running off 26 unanswered points between the 21st and 49th minutes to turn a four-point deficit into a twenty-point lead. Herbie Farnworth started it, Selwyn Cobbo scored twice inside five minutes, Max Plath added another before the break and Jeremy Marshall-King finished the burst three minutes into the second half. By then it was 6-24 and the game was effectively over.

Final score: Dolphins 26, Roosters 12. Half-time was 20-6, which tells you the outcome was written well before full time. The lead changed hands precisely once, and the Dolphins' biggest lead of twenty points came in the 49th minute, right as that scoring run wrapped up.

The Roosters did make a fight of the back end, but it came with help. Thomas Flegler was sin-binned for a professional foul in the 60th minute and the Roosters cashed in six points with the extra man. Eight minutes later Morgan Knowles went to the bin for a hip drop, placed on report, and the Roosters found another six. Salesi Foketi's try in the 69th minute was the product of both. Take away the two sin bins and it's fair to wonder how much closer this really was.

Strip away the scoreboard and the underlying numbers actually favour the Roosters in a few places. They won the line-break count 7 to 4, broke 37 tackles to 29, offloaded 23 times to just 6, and ground out 649 post-contact metres. That's a side that could bend a defence when it had the ball. Problem is, it gave the ball away far too often, coughing up 12 errors to the Dolphins' 6 and completing at just 81% against 88%. Handling let them down at the exact moments field position mattered.

The Dolphins didn't need to dominate territory to win it, they just needed to be efficient, and 837 kick metres to 455 says they controlled where the game was played. Their forward pack and hooker spot were rated stronger coming in, 1110 to 1060 up front and 1088 to 955 at hooker, and it showed in the moments that counted, even with the Roosters winning the overall running-metres count 1,928 to 1,600. Defensively the Roosters were sharper too, missing only 29 tackles at 91.4% effective against the Dolphins' 84.7% and 37 missed. None of it mattered enough once that middle-game burst had done its damage.

Alphr's model had the Roosters as 62% favourites and predicted them to win by 7.2 points off ratings of 1669 to 1634. Instead the Dolphins won by 14, extending a last-five form line where they'd won all five outings coming in, against a Roosters side who'd dropped their most recent one. The total score prediction of 43 wasn't far off the actual 38, and the under 47.5 call landed, but the margin and winner both missed badly here. The model went 4 from 17 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Dolphins | 20 | 6 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **1,928** | Run metres | 1,600 |
| **649** | Post-contact metres | 589 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **23** | Offloads | 6 |
| **91.4%** | Effective tackle % | 84.7% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 12 | Errors | **6** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 455 | Kick metres | **837** |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 62% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (119 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 9 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 71% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 38' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 60' Sin Bin — Thomas Flegler (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 67' Sin Bin — Morgan Knowles (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 68' Try — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 10-26 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 62.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 62%, but Dolphins stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 36 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1634. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Roosters.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Roosters, which says Halves Control and Team ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Roosters by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 36-20 in 2026 Round 30.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 6, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Roosters 3rd against Dolphins 4th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.55 and Dolphins $2.47, with the line at Roosters -5.5 and the total at 47.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 13.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Roosters 5 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 36-20 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters at home | 10-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 3rd · Dolphins 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.55 · Dolphins $2.47 |
| Line | Roosters -5.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 13.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 119 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8W–7L | 53% |
| Dolphins | 10W–4L | 71% |

Avg total: 46.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 10 of 14 games (71%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 15 (53%). Games average 46.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1717.8m | Run Metres | 1882.6m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 345.0 | Tackles | 349.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 32.2 |
| Dolphins | R20 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Dolphins | 20 – 36 | Roosters | Dolphins 62% ✗ |
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters | Dolphins 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1.05 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 6th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.68/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 7th) | 1.55/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.95/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 10 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 45 | 74 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 725m/g | 873m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 21/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 14 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 567m/g | 478m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.28) +25% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·2) | 2/5g | 28/54g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·2) | 2/4g | 10/14g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 11 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 7/18g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 18g | 8/10g (3·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 17/20g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 70% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 5/32g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 12/28g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/38g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Nat Butcher | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/52g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Losalu | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/1g | 54% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 22g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 7/13g | 2/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 15 in 17g | 13/10g (1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 3/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 34' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | RES | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Brian Pouniu | RES | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1669 · Dolphins 1634 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1060 | 1110 | Dolphins +50 |
| Backs | 1117 | 1142 | Dolphins +25 |
| Halves | 1371 | 1321 | Roosters +50 |
| Hooker | 955 | 1088 | Dolphins +133 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Backline Quality | 24.3% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.3% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 14.5% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 11.5% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 10.2% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Team ELO | 7.5% | Roosters |
| 7 | Rest Days | 2.7% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Roosters predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-roosters-v-dolphins
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-29 09:30 UTC (latest tip update)