# Roosters v Dolphins — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Roosters v Dolphins?

Alphr's NRL model rates Roosters a 62% favourite over Dolphins in Round 26. Predicted result: Roosters by 7 in a low-scoring game (43 total, under the 47.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Roosters lead on Recent Win Rate, Hooker & Ruck and Team ELO. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — James Tedesco leads at +25.2% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Roosters v Dolphins
Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +70.0%) — model probability 62.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Overview

Roosters are the call at 62%, but Dolphins stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 36 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1634. Form leans Dolphins's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Roosters.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Roosters, which says Halves Control and Team ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Roosters by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- James Tedesco @ $2.12 — model probability 72.3% (edge +25.2%)
- Billy Smith @ $1.80 — model probability 74.9% (edge +19.3%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.98 — model probability 63.1% (edge +12.6%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.75 — model probability 69.7% (edge +12.5%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.55 — model probability 48.5% (edge +9.3%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $1.94 — model probability 58.5% (edge +7.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $10.00 — model probability 19.0% (edge +9.0%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $9.00 — model probability 16.8% (edge +5.6%)
- James Tedesco @ $10.00 — model probability 15.6% (edge +5.6%)
- Billy Smith @ $8.00 — model probability 16.8% (edge +4.3%)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $11.00 — model probability 12.0% (edge +2.9%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1717.8m | Run Metres | 1882.6m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 345.0 | Tackles | 349.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 32.2 |
| Dolphins | R20 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 32.0 |

### Referee Insight

**Todd Smith** — 119 career games since 2012.

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 10 of 14 games (71%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 15 (53%). Games average 46.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Roosters win, around 25–18 (total ~43 — under the 47.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Selwyn Cobbo (19.0%, +9.0% edge over market), then Billy Smith (16.8%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 47.5 line (model projects 43). Referee Todd Smith's games average 46.7.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)