# Roosters v Dolphins — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 12 – 26 Dolphins

_Dolphins ride the wave past Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 62% / Dolphins 38% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Salesi Foketi (69') · Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (21' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (29' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (34' Tipped ⚡), Max Plath (38'), Jeremy Marshall-King (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 62% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Roosters vs Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 29 Aug 2026, 07:30 pm_

Roosters 12–26 Dolphins in NRL Round 26 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six unanswered points in 28 minutes. That's the whole story of this one, really. Roosters led 4-0 after six minutes through Robert Toia, and then the Dolphins simply took the game off them, running up 26 straight from the 21st to the 49th. Sydney never got close again.

Final score: Dolphins 26, Roosters 12. At half-time, it was already 20-6. The margin at full-time, 14 points, shows the second half was mostly about the Dolphins managing a lead rather than building one.

The burst itself was brutal in its efficiency. Herbie Farnworth scored in the 21st minute, Selwyn Cobbo twice in five minutes either side of the half-hour mark, Max Plath right on the stroke of half-time, then Jeremy Marshall-King three minutes into the second half to push it to 6-24. The biggest lead of the match, 20 points, came in the 49th minute. After that, it was just about the Dolphins holding what they had.

And they did hold it, despite losing two players to the bin. Thomas Flegler went in the 60th for a professional foul, Morgan Knowles followed in the 68th for a hip drop, and the Roosters cashed in six points off each sin bin. Salesi Foketi's try in the 69th was the one that stuck. That's the entire second-half margin for Sydney, both scores coming with a Dolphin in the sheds.

The stat sheet is a strange one, because on a lot of the raw numbers, the Roosters actually won the game. More run metres, 1,928 to 1,600. More post-contact metres, 649 to 589. More line breaks, 7 to 4, more tackle breaks, 37 to 29, and 23 offloads to just 6. If you handed someone that sheet without the score, they'd back the home side. But the Dolphins completed at 88% to 81%, coughed the ball up only 6 times to 12, and defended at 91.4% effective to 84.7%. They didn't need the ball as often because when they had it, they finished with it. When the Roosters had it, they leaked it back through errors and missed tackles, 37 of them.

The kicking game underlines it. Dolphins put boot to ball for 837 metres against the Roosters' 455, which is territory the home side never really clawed back until the game was already decided.

Individually, it was Cobbo's double either side of half-time that did the damage, but this was a team effort in the middle of the park, five different scorers across the 26-point run.

For the Roosters, the shape was there in patches. Line breaks and offloads suggest a side that could move the ball, but 12 errors against a Dolphins outfit completing at 88% was always going to be a losing formula.

Alphr's model had Roosters as favourites here, 62% to win, expecting them by 7.2 on a combined total of 43. The Dolphins had other ideas, winning by 14 instead. The model's read on the total held up fine at 38 points, within five of the prediction, but the head-to-head call was a clean miss. Form lines suggested this one was tighter than the ratings implied, Dolphins arriving on five straight wins to the Roosters' four wins and a loss, and on the night, that form told the truer story.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Dolphins | 20 | 6 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **1,928** | Run metres | 1,600 |
| **649** | Post-contact metres | 589 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **23** | Offloads | 6 |
| **91.4%** | Effective tackle % | 84.7% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 12 | Errors | **6** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 455 | Kick metres | **837** |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 62% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (119 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 9 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 71% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 38' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 60' Sin Bin — Thomas Flegler (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 67' Sin Bin — Morgan Knowles (Dolphins) — 6-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 68' Try — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 10-26 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 62.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 62%, but Dolphins stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 36 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1634. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Roosters.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Roosters, which says Halves Control and Team ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Roosters by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-12 in 2026 Round 26.

Roosters have lost 3 straight. Dolphins have won 7 straight; Dolphins are 9-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 5, Dolphins 4.

On the ladder it's Roosters 3rd against Dolphins 4th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.55 and Dolphins $2.47, with the line at Roosters -5.5 and the total at 47.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 13.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Roosters 4 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters at home | 8-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 106 for, 48 against |
| Dolphins away | 9-3 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 3rd · Dolphins 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.55 · Dolphins $2.47 |
| Line | Roosters -5.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 13.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 119 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8W–7L | 53% |
| Dolphins | 10W–4L | 71% |

Avg total: 46.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 10 of 14 games (71%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 15 (53%). Games average 46.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1717.8m | Run Metres | 1882.6m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 345.0 | Tackles | 349.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 32.2 |
| Dolphins | R20 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R24 | Roosters | 30 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1.05 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 6th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.68/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 7th) | 1.55/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.95/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 10 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 45 | 74 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 725m/g | 873m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 21/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 14 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 567m/g | 478m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.28) +25% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·2) | 2/5g | 28/54g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·2) | 2/4g | 10/14g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 11 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 7/18g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 18g | 8/10g (3·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 17/20g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 70% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 5/32g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 12/28g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/38g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Nat Butcher | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/52g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Losalu | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/1g | 54% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 22g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 7/13g | 2/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 15 in 17g | 13/10g (1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 3/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 34' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | RES | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Brian Pouniu | RES | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1669 · Dolphins 1634 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1060 | 1110 | Dolphins +50 |
| Backs | 1117 | 1142 | Dolphins +25 |
| Halves | 1371 | 1321 | Roosters +50 |
| Hooker | 955 | 1088 | Dolphins +133 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Backline Quality | 24.3% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.3% | Roosters |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 14.5% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 11.5% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 10.2% | Roosters |
| 6 | Team ELO | 7.5% | Roosters |
| 7 | Rest Days | 2.7% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Roosters predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-29 09:30 UTC (latest tip update)