# Panthers v Bulldogs — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Panthers v Bulldogs?

Alphr's NRL model makes Panthers a clear 75% favourite over Bulldogs in Round 26. Predicted result: Panthers by 12 in a high-scoring game (41 total, over the 40.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Panthers lead on Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Stephen Crichton leads at +16.7% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Panthers v Bulldogs
Fri, 28 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 74.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Panthers here: 75% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 151 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1482.

On paper Bulldogs shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Halves Control, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Panthers, which says Team ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Panthers by 11.6, with the two sides combining for about 41. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.90 — model probability 42.4% (edge +16.7%)
- Nathan Cleary @ $3.15 — model probability 35.8% (edge +4.1%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.59 — model probability 66.3% (edge +3.4%)
- Matt Burton @ $3.30 — model probability 29.2% (edge -1.1%)
- Brian To'o @ $1.85 — model probability 52.0% (edge -2.1%)
- Jacob Kiraz @ $2.80 — model probability 27.6% (edge -8.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jacob Preston @ $15.00 — model probability 12.7% (edge +6.0%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $6.50 — model probability 18.4% (edge +3.0%)
- Matt Burton @ $13.00 — model probability 8.9% (edge +1.2%)
- Jacob Kiraz @ $12.00 — model probability 8.3%
- Brian To'o @ $8.00 — model probability 12.4% (edge -10.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 1677.8m | Run Metres | 1630.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 378.0 | Tackles | 348.0 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 21.2 |
| Bulldogs | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 24.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Gerard Sutton** — 403 career games since 2012.

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Panthers have won 35 of 65 games (54%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 43 (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Panthers's +0.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Panthers win, around 26–15 (total ~41 — over the 40.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Thomas Jenkins (18.4%, +3.0% edge over market), then Jacob Preston (12.7%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 40.5 line (model projects 41). Referee Gerard Sutton's games average 41.5.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)