# Eels v Sharks — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 38 – 18 Sharks

_Eels slip past Sharks._

Half time: 26 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 38% / Sharks 62% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 30 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Apa Twidle (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Will Penisini (6' Tipped ⚡), Mitchell Moses (30'), Ronald Volkman (35'), Tallyn Da Silva (75' Tipped ⚡), Tallyn Da Silva (79' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Sione Katoa (24' Tipped ⚡), Blayke Brailey (56'), Sione Katoa (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 62% | Lost |
| Eels | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 30 Aug 2026, 06:02 pm_

Eels 38–18 Sharks in NRL Round 26 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Sharks brought plenty of grunt to CommBank Stadium but it was not enough to hold off the Eels, who ran out 38-18 winners. They ground out 500 post-contact metres to the Eels 423 and made 40 tackle breaks to 38, yet those numbers never translated into control. The final margin blew out to 20 points, a result the pre-match model had not seen coming.

The Sharks started slow, conceding 14 unanswered points in the first 15 minutes. Apa Twidle opened the scoring for the Eels in the first minute, followed by Will Penisini in the sixth. Mitchell Moses added a penalty goal in the 15th, pushing the Eels out to a 14-0 lead. This early burst set a tone the Sharks struggled to overcome. Junior Paulo's sin-binning for the Eels in the 12th minute provided an opportunity, but the Sharks failed to capitalise, remaining scoreless during that period.

Sione Katoa got the Sharks on the board in the 24th minute, but the Eels responded with tries to Mitchell Moses in the 30th minute and Ronald Volkman in the 35th minute. A Nicho Hynes penalty goal just before the break saw the Sharks trail 26-8 at half-time. The Sharks had averaged 29.2 points in their last five outings, but struggled for rhythm against the Eels.

The Sharks showed fight after the break. Blayke Brailey scored in the 56th minute, and Katoa crossed for his second in the 62nd, narrowing the deficit to 26-18. This 12-point run brought them back into contention. Their positional ratings for halves and backs had been stronger coming into the match, and this period showed some of that attacking potential. The Sharks gained 500 post-contact metres to the Eels' 423, and made 40 tackle breaks to the Eels' 38, indicating their effort in carrying the ball.

However, the Eels scored 12 unanswered points between the 75th and 80th minutes. A Thomas Hazelton sin-binning for the Sharks in the 74th minute for a hip drop proved costly. The Eels scored 12 points while Hazelton was off the field. Tallyn Da Silva scored two late tries for the Eels in the 75th and 79th minutes, cementing the final 38-18 scoreline.

The Eels were the more disciplined side, conceding just one penalty to the Sharks' seven. This control, particularly in the first half where they gave away a single penalty to the Sharks' five, helped them maintain pressure. The Eels also had a higher effective tackle percentage at 87.2% compared to the Sharks' 86.0%. The Sharks coughed up the ball 12 times to the Eels' nine errors, giving away crucial possession.

The Eels controlled territory with the boot, kicking for 782 metres to the Sharks' 621. They also had more possession, holding the ball for 52% of the game compared to the Sharks' 48%. The Eels were sharper in attack, breaking the line 8 times to the Sharks' 5.

The model had favoured the Sharks with a 62% win probability and an expected margin of 8.6 points. Their recent form, with three wins from their last five matches and an average margin of 9.6 points, had supported this prediction. However, the Eels, despite a 2-3 record in their last five, produced a stronger performance than the numbers suggested, especially with their eight line breaks to the Sharks' five. The Eels' ability to score bursts of points proved decisive.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 26 | 12 | 38 |
| Sharks | 8 | 10 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 85% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| **1,701** | Run metres | 1,691 |
| 423 | Post-contact metres | **500** |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 38 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **87.2%** | Effective tackle % | 86.0% |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **38** |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **782** | Kick metres | 621 |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 62% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (418 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Eels's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Apa Twidle (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 5' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 11' Sin Bin — Junior Paulo (Eels) — 10-0 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 23' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 29' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 56' Try — Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — 26-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 62' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 26-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 73' Sin Bin — Thomas Hazelton (Sharks) — 26-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 75' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 30-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 79' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 36-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 62%, but Eels stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 256 ELO points clear, 1626 to 1370. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The margin model has Sharks by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Eels 13th against Sharks 5th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Eels $2.59 and Sharks $1.50, with the line at Eels +5.5 and the total at 52.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 5 · Sharks 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 38-18 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 13th · Sharks 5th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Market | Eels $2.59 · Sharks $1.50 |
| Line | Eels +5.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 418 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 28W–31L | 47% |
| Sharks | 26W–33L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Eels 28W–31L (47%) and Sharks 26W–33L (44%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1638.2m | Run Metres | 1785.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 336.6 | Tackles | 327.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L | 21.2 |
| Sharks | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R9 | Sharks | 28 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R13 | Eels | 34 – 22 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R2 | Eels | 26 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2022 | R2 | Sharks | 18 – 16 | Eels |
| 2021 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 4 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.05 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 3rd there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.91 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.91/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.45/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 11th) | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.68/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 8th) | 1.45/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 20 | 20 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Run Metres | 153m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 60 | 61 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 695m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 78.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 21 | 20 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 474m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 1.04/g (lg 0.72) +44% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apa Twidle | FB | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 3/14g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 19/51g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 14% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 15/39g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 8% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 21/32g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/10g | 32% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 21/71g | 22% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 8/20g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' 79' |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 11/91g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/20g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Saxon Pryke | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Ryda Talagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 4/29g | 10% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 10 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 5/6g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 13 in 16g | 11/10g (0·1·3·2·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/6g | 10/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 62' |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 12 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·2) | 4/6g | 2/6g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Niwhai Puru | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 12% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/14g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1370 · Sharks 1626 · ELO difference: 256 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1055 | 1113 | Sharks +58 |
| Backs | 899 | 1060 | Sharks +161 |
| Halves | 1078 | 1213 | Sharks +134 |
| Hooker | 1023 | 1052 | Sharks +29 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 51.8% | Sharks |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 16.3% | Sharks |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 14.6% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 6.6% | Sharks |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.2% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Sharks predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-30 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)