# Eels v Sharks — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Eels v Sharks?

Alphr's NRL model rates Sharks a 62% favourite over Eels in Round 26. Predicted result: Sharks by 9 in a low-scoring game (48 total, under the 52.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Sharks lead on Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Tallyn Da Silva leads at +10.8% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Eels v Sharks
Sun, 30 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 62.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Overview

Sharks are the call at 62%, but Eels stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 256 ELO points clear, 1626 to 1370. Form leans Sharks's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The margin model has Sharks by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.49 — model probability 74.4% (edge +7.3%)
- Sione Katoa @ $1.51 — model probability 72.0% (edge +5.8%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.30 — model probability 45.4% (edge +1.9%)
- KL Iro @ $2.40 — model probability 36.7% (edge -5.0%)
- Apa Twidle @ $3.05 — model probability 26.9% (edge -5.9%)
- Will Penisini @ $2.80 — model probability 13.7% (edge -22.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Tallyn Da Silva @ $15.00 — model probability 17.4% (edge +10.8%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $7.50 — model probability 18.7% (edge +5.3%)
- Sione Katoa @ $8.00 — model probability 17.4% (edge +4.9%)
- Apa Twidle @ $15.00 — model probability 6.8% (edge +10.0%)
- William Kennedy @ $12.00 — model probability 8.3%

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1638.2m | Run Metres | 1785.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 336.6 | Tackles | 327.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L | 21.2 |
| Sharks | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 29.2 |

### Referee Insight

**Ashley Klein** — 418 career games since 2012.

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Eels 28W–31L (47%) and Sharks 26W–33L (44%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Ashley Klein averages just 1.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Sharks win, around 28–20 (total ~48 — under the 52.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Ronaldo Mulitalo (18.7%, +5.3% edge over market), then Sione Katoa (17.4%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 52.5 line (model projects 48). Referee Ashley Klein's games average 43.4.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)