# Broncos v Storm — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 20 – 46 Storm

_Storm put Broncos to the sword._

Half time: 10 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 36% / Storm 64% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 27 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (18' Tipped ⚡), Ezra Mam (36' Tipped ⚡), Ben Hunt (50'), Ezra Mam (74' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Stefano Utoikamanu (14' 1st), Nick Meaney (21'), Tyran Wishart (27' Tipped ⚡), Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (32' Tipped ⚡), Tyran Wishart (39' Tipped ⚡), Sualauvi Faalogo (59'), Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (66' Tipped ⚡), Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 64% | Won |
| Broncos | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Broncos vs Storm Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Aug 2026, 05:49 pm · Last updated: 27 Aug 2026, 09:43 pm_

Broncos 20–46 Storm in NRL Round 26 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm won 46-20 at Suncorp Stadium, and on the sheet alone that reads like a hiding. Look closer and it gets stranger. Broncos actually held more of the ball, 51% to 49%, completed at a better clip, 73% to 68%, ran for more metres, 1,519 to 1,498, and made fewer errors, 14 to 18. By most conventional measures Brisbane were the tidier side. They still lost by 26.

So where did the game actually get away from them? Contact. Storm busted 39 tackles to Brisbane's 18, more than double, and Brisbane's defence missed 39 tackles to Storm's 18. Storm's effective tackle rate sat at 91.6% against Brisbane's 86.4%. That's the gap that mattered, not who had the footy.

The timeline backs it up. Utoikamanu crossed in the 14th minute to get Storm rolling, and after Staggs hit back for Brisbane, Storm ripped off 18 unanswered points between the 21st and 33rd minutes through Meaney, Wishart and Tuimalatu-Brown. Brisbane were still in it at 10-30 at the break, but a second burst, 12 unanswered points between the 59th and 68th minutes, pushed the margin out to 28, Storm's biggest lead of the night.

Tuimalatu-Brown finished with a hat-trick, adding two more after his first in that opening burst. Wishart crossed twice, Meaney and Faalogo once each, on top of Utoikamanu's opener. Brisbane got tries from Staggs, two from Ezra Mam and one from Ben Hunt, but they were always answering, never asking the questions.

Moses Leo's shoulder charge earned him the bin in the 49th minute and a report alongside it. Brisbane made the most of the extra man, with Ben Hunt scoring right at the start of that ten-minute window to make it 14-30. That was the last time the margin looked remotely gettable. Once Leo returned, Storm found their range again through Faalogo and a second Tuimalatu-Brown try to push the lead past 20.

Both sides burned an unsuccessful captain's challenge during the match, one apiece, neither changing the shape of the contest.

The pre-match numbers explain a fair bit of this. Storm went in rated well clear in the halves, 1230 to 1044, and in the backs, 1059 to 901, and it was exactly that spine that turned metres and possession into points. Brisbane's one clear edge, hooker at 1200 to 700, never got the chance to matter with the tryline bleeding the way it was.

Recent form pointed the same way. Storm had been conceding 24 a game across their last five, Brisbane 31.6, and both numbers landed close to script here even if the final total blew past it.

Alphr's model backed Storm at 64% and got the winner right, but the margin call badly undersold it, tipping Storm by 8.5 when it finished at 26. The total of 66 ran 16 points hotter than the projected 50. Storm covered the 2.5 line comfortably and the over on 49.5 cashed too, in a match where the model went 7 from 17 overall. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Storm | 30 | 16 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **73%** | Completion rate | 68% |
| **1,519** | Run metres | 1,498 |
| 486 | Post-contact metres | **497** |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| 86.4% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| **14** | Errors | 18 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **494** | Kick metres | 490 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.5 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 66 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 50. The model went 7/17 on this match. Storm covered the 2.5-point line. The over 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (58 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Storm's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Storm have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 59% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Stefano Utoikamanu (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 21' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 4-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 35' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 8-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 39' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 48' Sin Bin — Moses Leo (Storm) — 10-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Ben Hunt (Broncos) — 14-30 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 59' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 14-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 14-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 18-42 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 79' Try — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 20-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.67 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 64%, but Broncos stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 112 ELO points clear, 1453 to 1341.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 46-20 in 2026 Round 26.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 15th against Storm 11th.

The market has Storm favourites, Broncos $2.21 and Storm $1.67, with the line at Broncos +2.5 and the total at 49.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 12.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 59% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 15th · Storm 11th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Broncos $2.21 · Storm $1.67 |
| Line | Broncos +2.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 12.6 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Wyatt Raymond** — 58 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Storm | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 49.8 pts · Home win %: 59% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 7 (43%). Games average 49.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Storm).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -14.0pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1421.6m | Run Metres | 1572.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 343.6 | Tackles | 344.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 17.6 |
| Storm | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R25 L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Storm | 14 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2025 | GF | Storm | 22 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R27 | Broncos | 30 – 14 | Storm |
| 2025 | R23 | Storm | 22 – 2 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R27 | Broncos | 12 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 12th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 9th there (1.41 conceded/game). Key man: Karapani, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.82/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.41/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.55/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.91/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.59/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 21 | 18 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 137m/g | 230m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 61 | 58 · 58 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 634m/g | 667m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79% | 75.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 13 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 518m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.28) +9% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.72) -4% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.72) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hayze Perham | FB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/27g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 49/92g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 13/36g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 5/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·1) | 3/8g | 24/47g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 74' |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/24g | 26/124g | 4% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 10/43g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 9/56g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 9/90g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 13/78g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/76g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Blake Mozer | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 16 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 4/8g | 46% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 66' 80' |
| 3 | Tyran Wishart | CE | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 2/10g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 39' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 4/18g | 28% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 11 in 15g | 9/10g (1·2·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/22g | 7/27g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 13/15g | 12/22g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 10% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 6/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | RES | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | RES | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1341 · Storm 1453 · ELO difference: 112 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1053 | 1064 | Storm +11 |
| Backs | 901 | 1059 | Storm +157 |
| Halves | 1044 | 1230 | Storm +186 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 700 | Broncos +500 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 26.9% | Storm |
| 2 | Halves Control | 19.1% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 14.8% | Storm |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 12.3% | Storm |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 11.3% | Storm |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.2% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Storm predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-27 11:43 UTC (latest tip update)