# Broncos v Storm — NRL Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Broncos v Storm?

Alphr's NRL model rates Storm a 64% favourite over Broncos in Round 26. Predicted result: Storm by 9 in a high-scoring game (50 total, over the 49.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Storm lead on Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Ezra Mam leads at +27.0% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Broncos v Storm
Thu, 27 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 26

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.67 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 64.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Overview

Storm are the call at 64%, but Broncos stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 112 ELO points clear, 1453 to 1341.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $2.60 — model probability 65.5% (edge +27.0%)
- Tyran Wishart @ $3.05 — model probability 48.7% (edge +15.9%)
- Moses Leo @ $1.71 — model probability 64.0% (edge +5.5%)
- Deine Mariner @ $2.95 — model probability 34.0% (edge +10.0%)
- Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown @ $1.97 — model probability 46.1% (edge -4.7%)
- Grant Anderson @ $1.85 — model probability 43.7% (edge -10.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $13.00 — model probability 17.6% (edge +9.9%)
- Moses Leo @ $9.50 — model probability 14.0% (edge +3.5%)
- Deine Mariner @ $15.00 — model probability 6.9% (edge +20.0%)
- Grant Anderson @ $9.50 — model probability 9.5% (edge -100.0%)
- Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown @ $10.00 — model probability 8.5% (edge -1.5%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -14.0pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1421.6m | Run Metres | 1572.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 343.6 | Tackles | 344.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 17.6 |
| Storm | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R25 L | 22.0 |

### Referee Insight

**Wyatt Raymond** — 58 career games since 2012.

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 7 (43%). Games average 49.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Storm).

Broncos get a +-0.7 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Storm's -1.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Storm win, around 29–21 (total ~50 — over the 49.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Ezra Mam (17.6%, +9.9% edge over market), then Moses Leo (14.0%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 49.5 line (model projects 50). Referee Wyatt Raymond's games average 49.8.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-25 07:49 UTC (latest tip update)