# Titans v Sharks — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 22 – 30 Sharks

_Sharks fight back to devour Titans from 8 down._

Half time: 16 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 25% / Sharks 75% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 23 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jojo Fifita (16' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (26'), Phillip Sami (32' Tipped ⚡), Bodhi Sharpley (74') · Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sione Katoa (21' Tipped ⚡), Cameron McInnes (48'), Addin Fonua-Blake (57'), Sione Katoa (61' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (67' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 75% | Won |
| Titans | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 23 Aug 2026, 03:53 pm_

Titans 22–30 Sharks in NRL Round 25 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Titans started strong but fell to the Sharks, losing 30–22 at Cbus Super Stadium. They led 16–8 at half-time, with tries from Jojo Fifita, AJ Brimson, Phillip Sami, and Bodhi Sharpley. Their 84% completion rate showed they handled the ball well, and they conceded only three penalties throughout the match.

However, the Titans' defence let them down. They missed 39 tackles, creating opportunities for the Sharks. Their post-contact metres were 499, compared to the Sharks' 625, highlighting their struggle to hold the line. Despite a solid first half, the Titans couldn't maintain their momentum.

The Sharks turned the game around with a 22-point burst in the second half. Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa each scored two tries, while Cameron McInnes and Addin Fonua-Blake also crossed the line. The Sharks' nine line breaks were crucial to their comeback.

With 53% possession, the Sharks controlled the game. They made nine errors but broke 39 tackles, showing a relentless attack that wore down the Titans. Their effective tackle percentage of 88.5% helped close the gaps the Titans exploited earlier.

Alphr's model gave the Sharks a 75% chance of winning. The predicted 15-point margin was slightly off, as the Sharks won by eight. The model's expected total of 53 points was nearly accurate, with the game ending at 52.

The Sharks' forwards, rated higher pre-match, made the difference. Their run metres of 1,788 outpaced the Titans' 1,540. Despite the Titans' 681 kick metres, they couldn't capitalise on field position. The Sharks' 22 unanswered points between the 48th and 68th minutes sealed the Titans' fate.

The Titans will reflect on what could have been. Their promising start didn't translate into a full 80-minute performance. While they did some things right, it wasn't enough against a determined Sharks side.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Sharks | 8 | 22 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 82% |
| 1,540 | Run metres | **1,788** |
| 499 | Post-contact metres | **625** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| 86.9% | Effective tackle % | **88.5%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| **8** | Errors | 9 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 681 | Kick metres | **690** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 15.0 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 52, within 1 points. Sharks trailed 16–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–30. The model went 8/17 on this match. Sharks covered the 6.5-point line. The over 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (188 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 8 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sharks have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 15' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 21' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 4-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 8-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 14-8 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 48' Try — Cameron McInnes (Sharks) — 16-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 57' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 16-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 61' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 16-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 66' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 16-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 74' Try — Bodhi Sharpley (Titans) — 20-30 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.46 (edge +9.4%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 75% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 314 ELO points clear, 1618 to 1305. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Titans.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The margin model has Sharks by 15.0, with the two sides combining for about 53. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 30-22 in 2026 Round 25.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 15th against Sharks 5th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Titans $2.74 and Sharks $1.46, with the line at Titans +6.5 and the total at 49.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle: 16.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 1 · Sharks 9 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 30-22 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 15th · Sharks 5th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Market | Titans $2.74 · Sharks $1.46 |
| Line | Titans +6.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough · 16.4 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Peter Gough** — 188 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 8W–17L | 32% |
| Sharks | 13W–5L | 72% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 25 (32%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Titans get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.4pts |
| 1753.2m | Run Metres | 1732.2m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 326.4 | Tackles | 335.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 23.2 |
| Sharks | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Sharks | 50 – 10 | Titans |
| 2025 | R24 | Sharks | 54 – 22 | Titans |
| 2024 | R23 | Titans | 0 – 44 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R18 | Sharks | 16 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R24 | Sharks | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 9th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 9th) | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.43/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.81/g (def 11th) | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.76/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.52/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 20 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Run Metres | 202m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 61 | 57 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 762m/g | 735m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 78.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 17 | 19 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 489m/g | 472m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.72) -6%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.64/g (lg 0.41) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.28) +39% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/14g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 7 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 16/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 29/72g | 28% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 14 in 21g | 9/10g (1·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 41/72g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 17/44g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/81g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/44g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | RES | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 4 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 15/52g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | 2R | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/8g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/39g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Randall | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/40g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Bodhi Sharpley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 74' |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 10 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 2/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 11 in 15g | 9/10g (0·0·1·3·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 5/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' 61' |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 67' |
| 6 | Niwhai Puru | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 3/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 0/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 8 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/11g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | LK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1305 · Sharks 1618 · ELO difference: 314 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1094 | 1142 | Sharks +48 |
| Backs | 952 | 980 | Sharks +28 |
| Halves | 1334 | 1144 | Titans +189 |
| Hooker | 1063 | 811 | Titans +252 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 63.2% | Sharks |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 10.9% | Sharks |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 8.4% | Sharks |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 5.8% | Sharks |
| 5 | Halves Control | 2.3% | Titans |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.2% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Sharks predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-23 05:53 UTC (latest tip update)