# Storm v Panthers — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 14 – 22 Panthers

_Panthers maul Storm._

Half time: 0 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 38% / Panthers 62% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Thu, 20 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Tyran Wishart (44'), Jack Howarth (56' Tipped ⚡), Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (62' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Brian To'o (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (20'), Brian To'o (23' 1st Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (30' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 62% | Won |
| Storm | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Storm vs Panthers Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 25, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 20 Aug 2026, 09:47 pm_

Storm 14–22 Panthers in NRL Round 25 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers defeated Storm 22–14 at AAMI Park. The final score suggests a close contest, but the first half was a different story. By half-time, Panthers led 22-0, having scored all their points in the first 30 minutes. Brian To'o was instrumental, scoring three tries, while Liam Henry added another. Nathan Cleary converted three of the four tries, giving Panthers a commanding lead.

Storm had more possession at 56% and completed their sets at 85%, but they couldn't capitalise early on. Panthers, despite having less possession, were more efficient with the ball. They completed at 82% and made fewer errors, just 9 compared to Storm's 10. Panthers' defence was tested, missing 40 tackles, but they held firm when it mattered.

The second half saw a shift. Storm found their rhythm, scoring 14 unanswered points. Tyran Wishart crossed in the 44th minute, followed by Jack Howarth and Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown. However, Nick Meaney's missed conversions left Storm short of a full comeback.

Sin-bins influenced the match's flow. Oryn Keeley was sin-binned in the 26th minute, allowing Panthers to extend their lead. Later, Liam Martin and Jack Cogger were sin-binned for Panthers, giving Storm opportunities to score. Storm managed 10 points during these periods but couldn't close the gap entirely.

Storm excelled in the physical contest, running for 1,767 metres compared to Panthers' 1,455. They also dominated post-contact metres, with 601 to Panthers' 462. Despite this, they couldn't convert their yardage advantage into points. Their defence was more effective, with an 88.4% tackle success rate compared to Panthers' 84.6%.

Discipline was a mixed bag. Storm conceded four penalties in the first half but none in the second, showing improved discipline. Panthers, however, conceded ten penalties throughout, maintaining pressure on themselves.

Alphr’s model predicted a Panthers win with a 62% probability and a margin of 4.2 points. The actual margin of eight points reflected Panthers' first-half dominance. While the margin was slightly larger than expected, the outcome aligned with the model's prediction. The 1-12 margin band call was accurate.

In the end, Storm's second-half surge was not enough to overturn Panthers' early lead. The first-half blitz by Panthers set the tone, and despite Storm's efforts, the damage was done. Panthers secured the win, leaving Storm to ponder adjustments for their next outing.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Panthers | 22 | 0 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 82% |
| **1,767** | Run metres | 1,455 |
| **601** | Post-contact metres | 462 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| **19** | Offloads | 8 |
| **88.4%** | Effective tackle % | 84.6% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| 620 | Kick metres | **647** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 62% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 4.2 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (332 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 23' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 25' Sin Bin — Oryn Keeley (Storm) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 29' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 36' Sin Bin — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 42' Sin Bin — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 43' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 4-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 55' Try — Jack Howarth (Storm) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Sin Bin — Jack Cogger (Panthers) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.40 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 61.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 62%, but Storm stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 147 ELO points clear, 1617 to 1470.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Hooker & Ruck. The margin model has Panthers by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Panthers have won 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Storm 11th against Panthers 2nd.

The market has Panthers favourites, Storm $2.97 and Panthers $1.40, with the line at Storm +7.5 and the total at 42.5.

Storm come in fresher, 12 days between games against 7.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 16.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 5 · Panthers 5 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 22-14 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | LWWW · 90 for, 46 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 11th · Panthers 2nd |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Panthers 100% |
| Market | Storm $2.97 · Panthers $1.40 |
| Line | Storm +7.5 · total 42.5 |
| Rest gap | Storm 12d · Panthers 7d |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 16.5 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 332 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 35W–19L | 65% |
| Panthers | 26W–13L | 67% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Storm 35W–19L (65%) and Panthers 26W–13L (67%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1564.6m | Run Metres | 1705.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 339.4 | Tackles | 383.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 23.6 |
| Panthers | R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Panthers | 50 – 10 | Storm |
| 2025 | R24 | Panthers | 18 – 22 | Storm |
| 2025 | R3 | Storm | 30 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R24 | Panthers | 22 – 24 | Storm |
| 2024 | R1 | Storm | 8 – 0 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 2nd there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 12th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 28 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.48/g (def 12th) | 1.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.95/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.9/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 15 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 55 | 63 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 664m/g | 856m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 20.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 78.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 24 | 16 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 519m/g | 534m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.47) +0% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.41) -22%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.36/g (lg 1.27) +7% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.71) -1% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 16 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 11/19g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/26g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 20/52g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 11 in 14g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 6/8g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/24g | 37/109g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Trent Toelau | RES | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 21/56g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 3% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 7/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 11/48g | 24% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Angus Hinchey | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 25% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 10 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/20g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 28 in 21g | 10/10g (0·2·0·2·3·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 11 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 18/20g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 23' 30' |
| 6 | Jack Cogger | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/21g | 0/5g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/23g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Henry | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/21g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Scott | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1470 · Panthers 1617 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1162 | 1038 | Storm +124 |
| Backs | 928 | 981 | Panthers +53 |
| Halves | 832 | 1102 | Panthers +270 |
| Hooker | 790 | 977 | Panthers +187 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 67.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 17.1% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 3.1% | Panthers |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.7% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 2.5% | Storm |
| 6 | Halves Control | 2.3% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 2.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-20 11:47 UTC (latest tip update)