# Roosters v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 24 – 25 Wests Tigers

_A point the difference as Wests Tigers deny Roosters._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 80% / Wests Tigers 20% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 23 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Billy Smith (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Billy Smith (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), Robert Toia (64' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (73') · Wests Tigers: Jeral Skelton (19' Tipped ⚡), Tony Sukkar (22'), Jeral Skelton (27' Tipped ⚡), Solomone Saukuru (49' Tipped ⚡), Apisai Koroisau (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 80% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 23 Aug 2026, 06:02 pm_

Roosters 24–25 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 25 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ball control was key for the Wests Tigers as they narrowly defeated the Roosters 25–24 at Allianz Stadium. Both teams shared possession evenly at 50%, and their completion rates were close, with the Tigers at 82% and the Roosters at 80%. However, the Tigers' strategic kicking game and ability to capitalise on opportunities made the difference.

The Roosters, with stronger ratings in the forwards and halves, aimed to dominate through sheer metres and line breaks. They ran for 1,773 metres compared to the Tigers' 1,633 and broke the line nine times to the Tigers' four. Despite this, the Tigers' tactical kicking, totalling 692 metres, helped them control territory and keep the Roosters at bay.

Billy Smith got the Roosters on the board early with a try in the third minute, converted by Sam Walker. The Tigers responded with a 12-point surge between the 19th and 27th minutes, thanks to tries from Jeral Skelton and Tony Sukkar. This gave them a narrow lead at half-time, 12–10, despite the Roosters' superior attacking stats.

In the second half, the Tigers extended their lead with tries from Solomone Saukuru and Apisai Koroisau, reaching their largest lead of 12 points by the 61st minute. The Roosters fought back, with Robert Toia scoring a try and Sam Walker adding another, followed by a penalty goal to level the scores at 24-all with just minutes remaining.

Jock Madden's field goal in the 79th minute clinched the win for the Tigers. The Roosters' final captain's challenge was unsuccessful, leaving them unable to respond. Despite having more tackle breaks, 43 to 20, the Roosters couldn't convert these into a win. The Tigers' six offloads showed their ability to keep the ball alive and exploit gaps.

The Roosters entered the match with a higher rating of 1709 compared to the Tigers' 1218 and were expected to win comfortably. However, the Tigers' disciplined approach and ability to execute under pressure led to an upset victory, defying Alphr's model which had given the Roosters an 80% chance of winning.

The Tigers' hooker, rated at 1217, played a crucial role in their patient and precise play. They managed to cover the 23.5-point line and hit the under 51.5 total, surprising many. Winning seven out of sixteen key exchanges, the Tigers showed their knack for seizing critical moments.

Ultimately, the match was a tight contest decided by small margins: missed tackles, strategic metres kicked, and that decisive field goal. The Tigers demonstrated that in close games, success isn't just about making metres, but how effectively you use them.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 13 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **1,773** | Run metres | 1,633 |
| **558** | Post-contact metres | 552 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| 5 | Offloads | **6** |
| **91.8%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 561 | Kick metres | **692** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 80% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 23.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (417 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 61% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 19' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 22' Try — Tony Sukkar (Wests Tigers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 26' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 49' Try — Solomone Saukuru (Wests Tigers) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 59' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 64' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 72' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jock Madden (Wests Tigers) — 24-25 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.06 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 80.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 16 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 80% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 491 ELO points clear, 1709 to 1218. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Roosters by 16.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 25-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year. Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 1st against Wests Tigers 14th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.06 and Wests Tigers $9.50, with the line at Roosters -23.5 and the total at 51.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 25-24 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 1st · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.06 · Wests Tigers $9.50 |
| Line | Roosters -23.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.1 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 417 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 44W–28L | 61% |
| Wests Tigers | 16W–16L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 11-point edge: 44W–28L (61%) vs Wests Tigers's 16W–16L (50%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 30.2pts | Avg Score | 10.2pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 32.0pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Margin | -21.8pts |
| 1719.8m | Run Metres | 1510.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 346.2 | Tackles | 346.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 30.2 |
| Wests Tigers | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R24 L | 10.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Roosters | 28 – 30 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R17 | Roosters | 40 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R26 | Roosters | 32 – 8 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R23 | Roosters | 72 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2021 | R2 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 12th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.05/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 9 | 15 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 229m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 69 · 42 | 35 · 62 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 724m/g | 683m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.8% | 76.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 15 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 563m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.41) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.28) +29%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.28) +29% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 8/13g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 39' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 17g | 8/10g (0·3·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 2/1g | 17/19g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.36 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 15/23g | 5/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/27g | 20% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 7/51g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/37g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | CE | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 38% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 11% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 27' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/8g | 10% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | PR | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1709 · Wests Tigers 1218 · ELO difference: 491 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1155 | 1094 | Roosters +61 |
| Backs | 1083 | 974 | Roosters +109 |
| Halves | 1481 | 932 | Roosters +549 |
| Hooker | 993 | 1217 | Wests Tigers +224 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 43.4% | Roosters |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.6% | Roosters |
| 3 | Halves Control | 10.9% | Roosters |
| 4 | Referee Tendency | 2.7% | Roosters |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 2.6% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Roosters predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-23 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)