# Roosters v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 24 – 25 Wests Tigers

_A point the difference as Wests Tigers deny Roosters._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 80% / Wests Tigers 20% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 23 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Billy Smith (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Billy Smith (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), Robert Toia (64' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (73') · Wests Tigers: Jeral Skelton (19' Tipped ⚡), Tony Sukkar (22'), Jeral Skelton (27' Tipped ⚡), Solomone Saukuru (49' Tipped ⚡), Apisai Koroisau (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 80% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Roosters vs Wests Tigers Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 25, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 23 Aug 2026, 06:02 pm_

Roosters 24–25 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 25 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers edged out the Roosters 25-24 in a tight contest at Allianz Stadium. The Tigers' win came down to ball control and patience, contrasting with the Roosters' focus on raw metres and ambition. At half-time, the teams were locked at 12-12, but Wests Tigers capitalised on their steady approach to find the decisive points.

Both teams shared possession equally at 50%, but the Tigers controlled territory with 692 kick metres compared to the Roosters' 561. This territorial advantage was crucial, allowing the Tigers to plot their moves and keep errors in check. The Roosters, on the other hand, leaned on their running game, clocking up 1,773 metres to the Tigers' 1,633. Despite their attacking prowess, it didn't translate into a decisive lead.

Billy Smith opened the scoring for the Roosters in the third minute, with Sam Walker converting. Smith scored twice, with Robert Toia and Walker also crossing the line. Their nine line breaks and 43 tackle busts highlighted their offensive flair. However, Wests Tigers capitalised on key moments, showing that patience can trump aggression.

Defensively, the Tigers missed 43 tackles, a figure that belies their win. Their effective tackle percentage was 87.8%, compared to the Roosters' 91.8%. Despite the Roosters' stronger defence, the Tigers managed to exploit lapses in concentration. Jeral Skelton, Tony Sukkar, and Apisai Koroisau scored during critical bursts, with the Tigers putting up 12 unanswered points between the 19th and 27th minutes.

The match was an arm-wrestle, evident in the penalty count, with both sides conceding five each. It was poised at 24-24 until Jock Madden's field goal in the 79th minute secured the Tigers' victory. The Roosters' fate was sealed when they unsuccessfully challenged a decision with the captain's challenge late in the game.

Pre-match predictions were upended. Alphr's model favoured the Roosters with an 80% win probability and a predicted 16.4-point margin. Instead, the Tigers' disciplined gameplay and ability to convert possession into points led them to an unlikely victory. The model slightly missed the total points, expecting 45, while the teams produced 49.

In essence, Wests Tigers exploited their strengths and patience to edge past a Roosters team who, despite their flair and metres, were outplayed in crucial moments. Small margins made for a gripping contest and an unexpected outcome at Allianz Stadium.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 13 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **1,773** | Run metres | 1,633 |
| **558** | Post-contact metres | 552 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| 5 | Offloads | **6** |
| **91.8%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 561 | Kick metres | **692** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 80% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 23.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (417 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 61% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 19' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 22' Try — Tony Sukkar (Wests Tigers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 26' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 49' Try — Solomone Saukuru (Wests Tigers) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 59' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 64' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 72' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jock Madden (Wests Tigers) — 24-25 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.06 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 80.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 16 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 80% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 491 ELO points clear, 1709 to 1218. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Roosters by 16.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 25-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Roosters have lost 3 straight. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year. Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 1st against Wests Tigers 14th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.06 and Wests Tigers $9.50, with the line at Roosters -23.5 and the total at 51.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 25-24 |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters at home | 8-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 1st · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.06 · Wests Tigers $9.50 |
| Line | Roosters -23.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.1 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 417 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 44W–28L | 61% |
| Wests Tigers | 16W–16L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 11-point edge: 44W–28L (61%) vs Wests Tigers's 16W–16L (50%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 30.2pts | Avg Score | 10.2pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 32.0pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Margin | -21.8pts |
| 1719.8m | Run Metres | 1510.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 346.2 | Tackles | 346.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 30.2 |
| Wests Tigers | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R24 L | 10.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Roosters | 28 – 30 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R17 | Roosters | 40 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R26 | Roosters | 32 – 8 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R23 | Roosters | 72 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2021 | R2 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 12th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.05/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 9 | 15 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 229m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 69 · 42 | 35 · 62 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 724m/g | 683m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.8% | 76.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 15 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 563m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.41) +41% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.28) +29%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.28) +29% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 8/13g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 39' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 17g | 8/10g (0·3·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 2/1g | 17/19g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.36 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 15/23g | 5/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/27g | 20% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 7/51g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/37g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | CE | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 38% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 11% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 27' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/8g | 10% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | PR | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1709 · Wests Tigers 1218 · ELO difference: 491 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1155 | 1094 | Roosters +61 |
| Backs | 1083 | 974 | Roosters +109 |
| Halves | 1481 | 932 | Roosters +549 |
| Hooker | 993 | 1217 | Wests Tigers +224 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 43.4% | Roosters |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 15.6% | Roosters |
| 3 | Halves Control | 10.9% | Roosters |
| 4 | Referee Tendency | 2.7% | Roosters |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 2.6% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Roosters predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-23 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)