# Raiders v Broncos — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 30 – 34 Broncos

_Broncos fight back to stampede past Raiders._

Half time: 18 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 75% / Broncos 25% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Fri, 21 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Kaeo Weekes (17' Tipped ⚡), Ata Mariota (22'), Kaeo Weekes (40' Tipped ⚡), Owen Pattie (42'), Zac Hosking (60') · Broncos: Billy Walters (9' 1st), Ezra Mam (27' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (32'), Payne Haas (64'), Grant Anderson (66'), Hayze Perham (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 75% | Lost |
| Broncos | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Raiders vs Broncos Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 25, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 21 Aug 2026, 07:55 pm_

Raiders 30–34 Broncos in NRL Round 25 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Broncos pulled off a stunning comeback at GIO Stadium, overturning a 14-point deficit to defeat the Raiders 34–30. The game turned in the final quarter when Brisbane scored 18 unanswered points, starting with Payne Haas's try in the 64th minute and ending with Hayze Perham's decisive score in the 74th minute. Until then, the Raiders seemed to have the match in hand, leading 30–16 after Zac Hosking's try.

Momentum shifted throughout the match. The Raiders had their own dominant stretch earlier, scoring 18 points without reply between the 40th and 62nd minutes, with tries from Owen Pattie and Kaeo Weekes. Despite playing with determination, the Broncos faced a setback when Patrick Carrigan was sin-binned for a dangerous tackle in the 24th minute. Surprisingly, they outscored the Raiders 10–0 during his absence.

Billy Walters opened the scoring for the Broncos in the ninth minute, but the Raiders responded with tries from Weekes and Ata Mariota to take the lead. The Broncos answered back with tries from Ezra Mam and Grant Anderson, tying the game at 16–16 by half-time. After the break, Pattie's try seemed to put the Raiders in control, but the Broncos showed resilience under pressure.

Statistically, the Raiders had the edge. They held 55% possession and gained 1,673 run metres and 535 post-contact metres compared to the Broncos' 1,519 and 477 metres. Their discipline was strong, conceding only one penalty against the Broncos' five. Despite these advantages, the Raiders couldn't secure the win.

The Broncos capitalised on crucial moments. They held firm in defence, forcing the Raiders into 33 missed tackles and making key line breaks when needed. Although the Raiders had an impressive 86% completion rate, errors at critical times allowed the Broncos to seize control and close out the game.

Alphr's model had the Raiders as favourites, with a 75% chance to win and a predicted margin of 10.9 points. However, the Broncos defied expectations, and the final 34–30 scoreline exceeded the projected total of 49 points. This victory was a significant boost for the Broncos, breaking a poor run of form.

The Raiders will be left questioning how they let a 14-point lead slip away. Despite dominating the forwards' battle, the Broncos thrived under pressure, showing that stats don't always tell the full story.

The Broncos' resilience secured the win in a match remembered for its late drama. Rugby league, unpredictable and thrilling, can change in an instant.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Broncos | 16 | 18 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 81% |
| **1,673** | Run metres | 1,519 |
| **535** | Post-contact metres | 477 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| **15** | Offloads | 3 |
| **90.2%** | Effective tackle % | 85.6% |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 557 | Kick metres | **623** |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 75% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.9 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 64 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 49. Broncos trailed 18–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–34. The model went 2/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (306 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Broncos bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 51% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 16' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Ata Mariota (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 23' Sin Bin — Patrick Carrigan (Broncos) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 32' Try — Grant Anderson (Broncos) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 60' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Payne Haas (Broncos) — 30-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 66' Try — Grant Anderson (Broncos) — 30-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 73' Try — Hayze Perham (Broncos) — 30-32 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.31 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 74.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 11 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 75% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 179 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1307. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 10.9, with the two sides combining for about 49. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 3, Broncos 3.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Broncos 16th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.31 and Broncos $3.48, with the line at Raiders -10.5 and the total at 51.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 34-30 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Broncos 16th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Raiders $1.31 · Broncos $3.48 |
| Line | Raiders -10.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.2 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Adam Gee** — 306 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 22W–21L | 51% |
| Broncos | 17W–22L | 44% |

Avg total: 42.8 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 7-point edge: 22W–21L (51%) vs Broncos's 17W–22L (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Raiders get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.5. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 13.6pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 1586.2m | Run Metres | 1465.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 355.6 | Tackles | 344.0 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 W | 31.2 |
| Broncos | R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 13.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | FW1 | Raiders | 28 – 29 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 22 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R7 | Broncos | 34 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R26 | Raiders | 18 – 29 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R6 | Broncos | 14 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 13th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Weekes, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 12th there (1.82 conceded/game). Key man: Mam, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 7th) | 1.1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.82/g (def 12th) | 1.43/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.27/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.62/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 20 | 13 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 177m/g | 133m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 48 · 54 | 35 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 733m/g | 635m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.1/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 19 | 14 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 532m/g | 531m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.71) +21%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.88/g (lg 0.71) +24% · 2nd Rows 0.56/g (lg 0.47) +19% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 18/36g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 40' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 7/27g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 20/60g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 23/39g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 13/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 30/138g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 14% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 10/106g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 9/27g | 20% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 4/8g | 27% | — | — |
| 13 | Ata Mariota | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/44g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/69g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Horsburgh | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/57g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/13g | 12% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hayze Perham | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 32' 66' |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 8% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Blake Mozer | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | RES | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1486 · Broncos 1307 · ELO difference: 179 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1194 | 1106 | Raiders +88 |
| Backs | 1058 | 836 | Raiders +222 |
| Halves | 1073 | 820 | Raiders +253 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1171 | Raiders +29 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 29.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Halves Control | 21.9% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 8.7% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 4.5% | Broncos |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Raiders predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC (latest tip update)