# Rabbitohs v Warriors — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 26 – 45 Warriors

_Warriors march past Rabbitohs._

Half time: 8 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 43% / Warriors 57% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 22 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Jack Wighton (13'), Alex Johnston (26' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (48' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (53' Tipped ⚡), Cody Walker (60') · Warriors: James Fisher-Harris (5' 1st), Leka Halasima (8' Tipped ⚡), Mitchell Barnett (20'), Chanel Harris-Tavita (32' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (45' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Laban (69'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 57% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Rabbitohs vs Warriors Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 25, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 07:20 pm_

Rabbitohs 26–45 Warriors in NRL Round 25 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Warriors' disciplined ball control outshone the Rabbitohs' ambitious play, leading to a 45–26 victory at Accor Stadium. The Warriors' efficiency was evident in their 89% completion rate compared to the Rabbitohs' 77%, a crucial factor in their win.

Early on, the Warriors set the tone with James Fisher-Harris scoring within five minutes. By the 36th minute, they had built a commanding 26–8 lead. Taine Tuaupiki's accurate conversions and a penalty goal highlighted their precision, extending their advantage at half-time.

The Rabbitohs, in contrast, relied on bursts of ambition. They managed more line breaks, nine to the Warriors' eight, and mounted an 18-point surge between the 48th and 62nd minutes. Alex Johnston scored twice, contributing to their five tries, but their efforts seemed sporadic against the Warriors' consistent approach.

The Warriors' 1,611 run metres and 481 post-contact metres demonstrated their ability to wear down the Rabbitohs' defence. The Rabbitohs missed 32 tackles, struggling to contain the Warriors' advances. The Warriors' nine offloads to the Rabbitohs' seven further showcased their strategic depth.

Cody Walker's try was a standout moment in the Rabbitohs' second-half push. However, their 10 errors and four penalties conceded highlighted a lack of discipline. These mistakes gave the Warriors opportunities to maintain their control.

The Warriors' kicking game was another advantage, gaining 608 kick metres and keeping the Rabbitohs on the back foot. This territorial control, combined with the Rabbitohs' defensive lapses, allowed the Warriors to comfortably close out the match.

Our model predicted a Warriors win with a 57% probability, but the 19-point margin exceeded the expected 4.5. The game also surpassed the predicted combined total of 46 points, ending at 71. The stats reflected the Rabbitohs' struggle to contain the Warriors and the latter's strategic superiority.

Ultimately, the match highlighted two contrasting styles. The Rabbitohs' ambitious play couldn't disrupt the Warriors' disciplined strategy. While the Rabbitohs had moments of flair, the Warriors' ball control dictated the final score.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 8 | 18 | 26 |
| Warriors | 26 | 19 | 45 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| 1,438 | Run metres | **1,611** |
| 406 | Post-contact metres | **481** |
| **9** | Line breaks | 8 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 87.9% | Effective tackle % | **89.4%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 462 | Kick metres | **608** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 71 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 9/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 3.5-point line. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (118 career games). The combined score of 71 points was 24 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 7' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 20' Try — Mitchell Barnett (Warriors) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 26' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 8-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 8-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 44' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 8-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 48' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 12-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 18-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 60' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 24-32 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 68' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 26-36 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 73' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 26-42 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Luke Hanson (Warriors) — 26-45 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.67 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 57%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 113 ELO points clear, 1646 to 1533. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Rabbitohs.

On paper Rabbitohs shade it, ahead on 3 of 5 factors including Backline Quality, Hooker & Ruck and Halves Control. The model still sides with Warriors, which says Team ELO and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Warriors by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 45-26 in 2026 Round 25.

Rabbitohs have put up 140 points in four games; Rabbitohs are 9-3 at home this year. Warriors have won 6 straight; Warriors have put up 162 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 7th against Warriors 3rd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Rabbitohs $2.22 and Warriors $1.67, with the line at Rabbitohs +3.5 and the total at 45.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 12.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Warriors 3 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 45-26 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-3 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWW · 162 for, 94 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 7th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Rabbitohs $2.22 · Warriors $1.67 |
| Line | Rabbitohs +3.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 12.6 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 118 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 5W–8L | 38% |
| Warriors | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 46.5 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Rabbitohs 5W–8L (38%) and Warriors 5W–7L (42%). Games average 46.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Warriors get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 16.4pts |
| 1662.8m | Run Metres | 1847.6m |
| 7.2 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 344.6 | Tackles | 337.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 23.6 |
| Warriors | R20 W · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R13 | Rabbitohs | 30 – 36 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 34 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R18 | Warriors | 6 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2022 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 48 – 10 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R10 | Warriors | 30 – 32 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.62 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.24 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 10th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 8th) | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.81/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 10th) | 2.24/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.62/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 12 | 20 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 164m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 47 | 59 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 730m/g | 680m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 16 | 22 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 576m/g | 592m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.41) +12% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.71) +8% · Wingers 1.11/g (lg 1.28) -13%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.28) +54% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.41) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 3/16g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 26 in 18g | 15/10g (3·1·0·4·0·1·1·1·3·1) | 15/11g | 100/96g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 53' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/26g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/21g | 8/26g | 20% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 11 in 15g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/7g | 30/60g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 34/96g | 22% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 6/69g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 11/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 5/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/24g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 17/71g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | RES | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/19g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | RES | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 19 in 20g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 6/15g | 6/23g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | RES | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 27% | — | — |
| 4 | Leka Halasima | CE | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 14 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 6 | Luke Hanson | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | HB | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/23g | 10% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1533 · Warriors 1646 · ELO difference: 113 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1142 | 1142 | Even |
| Backs | 1140 | 1004 | Rabbitohs +135 |
| Halves | 1317 | 1159 | Rabbitohs +158 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 931 | Rabbitohs +269 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 57.3% | Warriors |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 12.6% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 9.9% | Warriors |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.2% | Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 3.7% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Warriors predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-22 09:20 UTC (latest tip update)