# Knights v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 24 – 44 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles swoop on Knights._

Half time: 18 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 64% / Sea Eagles 36% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sat, 22 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Hunt (9'), Greg Marzhew (15' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (23' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Hunt (62') · Sea Eagles: Clayton Faulalo (3' 1st), Caleb Navale (33'), Josh Feledy (35'), Josh Feledy (39'), Josh Feledy (49'), Reuben Garrick (58'), Jason Saab (69' Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 64% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 04:55 pm_

Knights 24–44 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 25 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, the Sea Eagles were narrowly ahead, 24-18, over the Knights. By full-time, they had extended their lead to a 44-24 victory at McDonald Jones Stadium. The first half saw both teams trading blows, but the Sea Eagles' dominance in the second half sealed the win.

The Sea Eagles took control after the break. Between the 33rd and 58th minutes, they scored 28 unanswered points. Josh Feledy was a standout, scoring three tries. The Knights had shown promise in the first half with tries from Fletcher Hunt, Greg Marzhew, and Dominic Young, but they couldn't keep up in the second half.

Dominic Young's sin-binning in the 34th minute was crucial. The Sea Eagles took advantage of the extra man, scoring 12 points during his absence. The Knights struggled to regain momentum after this setback.

Statistically, the Sea Eagles were the stronger side. They held 55% possession, which helped them control the game. Their completion rate of 77% was slightly better than the Knights' 75%, showing more composure with the ball. In terms of yardage, the Sea Eagles outperformed the Knights with 1,660 run metres to 1,409. Their 523 post-contact metres highlighted their physicality.

The Sea Eagles also excelled in attack, making nine line breaks compared to the Knights' seven. They capitalised on their opportunities and kept errors to a minimum, with just eight compared to the Knights' ten.

The Knights were more disciplined, conceding only three penalties to the Sea Eagles' eight. However, they couldn't turn this into an advantage. The Sea Eagles dominated with their kicking game, amassing 477 kick metres to the Knights' 360.

Alphr's model had predicted a Knights win by 6.5 points, but the Sea Eagles defied expectations. The 20-point margin was a surprise, showing that numbers don't always tell the full story.

This loss ends the Knights' three-game winning streak. For the Sea Eagles, it breaks a five-game losing streak and provides a much-needed confidence boost. The Knights will need to regroup, while the Sea Eagles will aim to build on this momentum.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| Sea Eagles | 24 | 20 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,409 | Run metres | **1,660** |
| 407 | Post-contact metres | **523** |
| 7 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **28** |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.2% | Effective tackle % | **87.2%** |
| 28 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 360 | Kick metres | **477** |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 64% prediction for Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 68 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 50. Sea Eagles led 18–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (57 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 18 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 40% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Caleb Navale (Sea Eagles) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Sin Bin — Dominic Young (Knights) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 34' Try — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -20 pts
- 38' Try — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 49' Try — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 18-28 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 58' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 18-34 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 61' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 22-34 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 68' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 24-38 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 71' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 24-42 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.47 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 64.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 7 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Knights are the call at 64%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 136 ELO points clear, 1537 to 1401. Form leans Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Sea Eagles.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Knights by 6.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Knights, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Knights have won 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Knights 6th against Sea Eagles 10th.

The market has Knights favourites, Knights $1.47 and Sea Eagles $2.71, with the line at Knights -6.5 and the total at 50.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 10.5 penalties a game (average), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 5 · Sea Eagles 4 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-24 |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 6th · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Knights 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Knights $1.47 · Sea Eagles $2.71 |
| Line | Knights -6.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 10.5 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Wyatt Raymond** — 57 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–6L | 33% |
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 49.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 7-point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Knights's 3W–6L (33%). Games average 49.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Sea Eagles).

Knights get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sea Eagles's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 33.8pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -17.4pts |
| 1597.4m | Run Metres | 1505.0m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 347.2 | Tackles | 344.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 27.2 |
| Sea Eagles | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R23 L · R24 L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Sea Eagles | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2025 | R14 | Knights | 26 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 6 | Knights |
| 2023 | R13 | Knights | 28 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 32 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 12th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.77/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.73/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.95/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 9th) | 1.24/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 16 | 11 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 213m/g | 154m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 65 · 49 | 57 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 744m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.2% | 75.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 19 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 528m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.22) +41% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 31/63g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 19 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 10/8g | 29/40g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 9 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 7/17g | 32% | — | 🏉 9' 62' |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 22/51g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 21 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·2) | 7/8g | 30/40g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 12 in 20g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 2/2g | 18/20g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 4/86g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 8/64g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Tyson Frizell | 2R | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 10/63g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/53g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 12 in 20g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 2/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 9 in 18g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 2/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 14 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 6 | Clayton Faulalo | 5/8 | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Nathan Brown | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Nicholas Lenaz | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Waddell | Replacement | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Caleb Navale | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 33' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1537 · Sea Eagles 1401 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1112 | 1137 | Sea Eagles +25 |
| Backs | 1084 | 906 | Knights +178 |
| Halves | 1189 | 1070 | Knights +119 |
| Hooker | 943 | 899 | Knights +44 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 45.9% | Knights |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 15.2% | Knights |
| 3 | Halves Control | 9.8% | Knights |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 7.7% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 2.5% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Knights predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-knights-v-sea-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-22 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)