# Dragons v Bulldogs — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 14 – 44 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs put Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 42% / Bulldogs 58% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 22 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Valentine Holmes (48' Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (63' Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (69' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Bronson Xerri (12' 1st), Matt Burton (26' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Preston (28'), Matt Burton (37' Tipped ⚡), Max King (53'), Lachlan Galvin (57'), Connor Tracey (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 58% | Won |
| Dragons | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 09:33 pm_

Dragons 14–44 Bulldogs in NRL Round 25 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At Allianz Stadium, the Bulldogs took a commanding 24–0 lead into half-time. By full time, they had secured a decisive 44-14 victory over the Dragons. The Bulldogs' first-half performance was marked by four tries, with Bronson Xerri opening the scoring early. The Dragons were left scoreless and struggling to keep up.

The second half offered a brief moment of hope for the Dragons when Valentine Holmes crossed the line shortly after the break, finally putting them on the scoreboard. However, the Bulldogs quickly responded with tries from Max King and Lachlan Galvin, quashing any potential Dragons comeback. Despite the Dragons' efforts in the second half, the Bulldogs maintained a comfortable lead throughout.

The Bulldogs' efficiency in attack was crucial to their dominance. They completed their sets at 85% and committed only 10 errors, compared to the Dragons' 16. This efficiency was reflected in their slight possession edge of 51%, which proved more significant than it might seem.

The statistics reveal a tale of contrasts. The Dragons excelled in several areas despite the scoreboard. They achieved 8 line breaks to the Bulldogs' 7 and managed 33 tackle breaks compared to the Bulldogs’ 22. However, these numbers did not translate into points.

The kicking game was firmly in the Bulldogs' favour. They outkicked the Dragons with 723 kick metres against 591, which helped keep the Dragons pinned back, even when the game opened up in the second half. Despite the Dragons' sharper offensive metrics, they struggled to convert breaks into meaningful field position.

Discipline played a role in the match, with sin-bins affecting the flow. Jonathan Sua's early sin-bin did not stop the Bulldogs' 24-point run, while Matt Burton's later sin-bin allowed the Dragons to score their only two tries. The Bulldogs conceded nine penalties compared to the Dragons' two, but this did not significantly impact the outcome.

The Bulldogs' forwards deserve credit for their groundwork. They gained 555 post-contact metres, outmuscling the Dragons' pack, which had been rated stronger before the match. Despite this, the Dragons failed to capitalise offensively, missing opportunities to exploit the Bulldogs' defensive weaknesses.

Before the game, our model predicted a Bulldogs victory with a 58% probability and a 5.1-point margin. The Bulldogs exceeded expectations with a 30-point win. The over 43.5 points call was accurate, though the margin was more decisive than anticipated. Overall, the Bulldogs asserted their dominance, while the Dragons were left to reflect on missed opportunities and flashes of attacking potential.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Bulldogs | 24 | 20 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,625 | Run metres | **1,719** |
| 511 | Post-contact metres | **555** |
| **8** | Line breaks | 7 |
| **33** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| **11** | Offloads | 9 |
| **90.4%** | Effective tackle % | 86.3% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 33 |
| 16 | Errors | **10** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 591 | Kick metres | **723** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 30 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (69 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Dragons historically win 69% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Sin Bin — Jonathan Sua (Bulldogs) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 11' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -12 pts
- 28' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 36' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 47' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 52' Try — Max King (Bulldogs) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 56' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 6-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Sin Bin — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 6-34 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 10-36 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 14-36 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 14-40 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 14-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.48 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 58%, but Dragons stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 182 ELO points clear, 1459 to 1276. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dragons.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 44-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Bulldogs 9th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Dragons $2.67 and Bulldogs $1.48, with the line at Dragons +5.5 and the total at 43.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Bulldogs 8 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 44-14 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Bulldogs 9th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Dragons $2.67 · Bulldogs $1.48 |
| Line | Dragons +5.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.4 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Liam Kennedy** — 69 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Bulldogs | 2W–5L | 29% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Dragons have won 9 of 13 games (69%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 46.4 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Bulldogs).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Bulldogs's -1.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1605.6m | Run Metres | 1685.8m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 389.4 | Tackles | 351.2 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 20.0 |
| Bulldogs | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R20 | Bulldogs | 20 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R1 | Dragons | 20 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R23 | Dragons | 10 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R12 | Bulldogs | 44 – 12 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 12th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.1/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 0.62/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.62/g (def 9th) | 1.33/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.52/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) | 0.43/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 15 | 13 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 242m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 70 | 33 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 668m/g | 803m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.4% | 79.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 15 | 18 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 553m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Wingers 1.36/g (lg 1.27) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.47) -6%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.41) +34% · 2nd Rows 0.59/g (lg 0.47) +26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Atkinson | FB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 69' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 9 in 21g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/14g | 5/10g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 10 in 17g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 3/5g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Jacob Liddle | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Damien Cook | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 4/5g | 4/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 37' |
| 4 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 2/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 34% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | RES | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1276 · Bulldogs 1459 · ELO difference: 182 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1128 | 1095 | Dragons +33 |
| Backs | 1166 | 932 | Dragons +233 |
| Halves | 1086 | 1333 | Bulldogs +247 |
| Hooker | 1135 | 969 | Dragons +165 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 49.8% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 20.9% | Dragons |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 9.5% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.7% | Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 3.5% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 3.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 2.7% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-22 11:33 UTC (latest tip update)