# Dolphins v Eels — NRL Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 34 – 16 Eels

_Dolphins make a splash against Eels._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 76% / Eels 24% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 21 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (25' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (28' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (35' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (48' Tipped ⚡), Max Plath (59'), Herbie Farnworth (79' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Ronald Volkman (7' 1st), Brian Kelly (19'), Kelma Tuilagi (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 76% | Won |
| Eels | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.2 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:28 pm · Last updated: 21 Aug 2026, 09:55 pm_

Dolphins 34–16 Eels in NRL Round 25 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat Eels 34-16 at Suncorp Stadium. Job done, straightforward story on paper. Except for the first 19 minutes, when it was Eels 10, Dolphins 0, and nobody watching would have picked what came next.

Ronald Volkman crossed inside seven minutes, Mitchell Moses converted, and Brian Kelly followed it up by the 19th to make it 10-0. At that point the Eels were playing the better footy. Then the Dolphins found 28 unanswered points between the 25th and 60th minutes, and the contest was effectively over long before full time.

Herbie Farnworth got the comeback started in the 25th, Selwyn Cobbo levelled it at 28, and Jamayne Isaako put the Dolphins in front for good just before half time, 16-10 at the break. From there it was one-way traffic: Isaako again in the 48th, Max Plath in the 59th, and the lead blew out to 18 points, the biggest of the day. Kelma Tuilagi got one back for the Eels in the 70th but Farnworth's second try in the 79th put the gloss on it.

The territory and possession numbers were split 50-50, which tells you almost nothing here. The completion rate did the talking: Dolphins finished at 78%, Eels at 72%, and that gap compounds over 80 minutes. Run metres went 1,907 to 1,566 in the Dolphins' favour, and they backed it up with 613 post-contact metres to the Eels' 553. Nine line breaks to four, 48 tackle breaks to 16. That's not a team that scraped home, that's a team that had the Eels' defensive line bent double all afternoon.

And it was the defence that really let the Eels down. Missing 48 tackles against the Dolphins' 16 is the number that decides most games on its own, and the effective tackle percentages back it up: 92.4% for the Dolphins, 83.2% for the Eels. The forward pack ratings actually had the Eels ahead coming in, 1116 to 1047, but none of that showed up in the collision stats. The Dolphins' halves edge, 1313 to 1194, looks like the more useful predictor in hindsight.

Discipline mattered too. The Dolphins conceded six penalties to the Eels' two, evenly split three and three across the halves, but it barely dented them given everything else was so lopsided. Errors actually favoured the Dolphins, 12 to 15, so the Eels were both leakier in defence and looser with the ball, a rough combination against a side finishing at 78%.

Alphr's model had the Dolphins at 76% to win, rated them 1620 to the Eels' 1384, and pegged the margin at 14.2. The final margin came in at 18, close enough to call it a sharp read, and the total score projection of 48 landed within two points of the actual 50. Form lines pointed the same way in, Dolphins on four wins from five, Eels on two, and on this evidence the gap between them was real, even if it took the Eels ten unanswered points to get there.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 16 | 18 | 34 |
| Eels | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,907** | Run metres | 1,566 |
| **613** | Post-contact metres | 553 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 16 |
| **12** | Offloads | 7 |
| **92.4%** | Effective tackle % | 83.2% |
| **16** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| **12** | Errors | 15 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| 624 | Kick metres | **697** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 76% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 14.2 vs the actual margin of 18 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 50, within 2 points. Dolphins led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 7/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 12.5-point line. The 13+ margin band call landed. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (402 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 8 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dolphins's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Brian Kelly (Eels) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 58' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 26-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 70' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 28-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 78' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 32-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.24 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 76.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 14 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 76% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 236 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1384. Form leans Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Dolphins by 14.2, with the two sides combining for about 48. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 4 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 34-16 in 2026 Round 25.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 4th against Eels 13th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.24 and Eels $4.10, with the line at Dolphins -12.5 and the total at 51.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 14.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Dolphins 3 · Eels 1 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 34-16 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 4th · Eels 13th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.24 · Eels $4.10 |
| Line | Dolphins -12.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 14.7 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 402 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5W–8L | 38% |
| Eels | 14W–26L | 35% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Dolphins 5W–8L (38%) and Eels 14W–26L (35%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1747.2m | Run Metres | 1571.2m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 359.6 | Tackles | 349.6 |
| 13.8 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R19 L · R20 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 25.2 |
| Eels | R19 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Dolphins lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R10 | Eels | 16 – 20 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R7 | Eels | 16 – 44 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R17 | Dolphins | 20 – 48 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.81 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.05 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.52/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.9/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.81/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.62/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 7th) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 11 | 18 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 81.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 69 · 48 | 36 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 870m/g | 694m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 77.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 11 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 479m/g | 460m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 1.03/g (lg 0.71) +45% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/5g | 30/38g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 19 in 21g | 9/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 1/11g | 42/84g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 48' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/2g | 11/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 9 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 29/71g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 79' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 14 in 16g | 12/10g (0·1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1·1) | 2/4g | 35/57g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 25/90g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/64g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 5/36g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 4/20g | 18% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/34g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 3/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Brian Pouniu | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apa Twidle | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 10/22g | 24% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/8g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | RES | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 23/24g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 27% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/18g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/6g | 34% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | RES | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Saxon Pryke | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jezaiah Funa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1620 · Eels 1384 · ELO difference: 236 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1047 | 1116 | Eels +69 |
| Backs | 1070 | 1070 | Eels +1 |
| Halves | 1313 | 1194 | Dolphins +119 |
| Hooker | 1119 | 1180 | Eels +61 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 36.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 17.3% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 4.2% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.2% | Eels |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 2.8% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC (latest tip update)