# Wests Tigers v Dragons — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Wests Tigers v Dragons?

Alphr's NRL model rates Wests Tigers a narrow 54% favourite over Dragons in Round 24 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Wests Tigers by 2 in a low-scoring game (45 total, under the 47.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Wests Tigers lead on Halves Control, Team ELO and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Adam Doueihi leads at +20.6% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Wests Tigers v Dragons
Sun, 16 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.93 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 53.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Overview

Wests Tigers are the call at 54%, but Dragons stay live at 46%. Form leans Dragons's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Backline Quality, Team ELO and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Wests Tigers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Adam Doueihi @ $2.45 — model probability 61.5% (edge +20.6%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.15 — model probability 58.9% (edge +12.4%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $1.69 — model probability 66.6% (edge +7.4%)
- Setu Tu @ $1.89 — model probability 51.7% (edge -1.2%)
- Moses Suli @ $3.25 — model probability 12.9% (edge -17.9%)
- Jahream Bula @ $2.35 — model probability 15.8% (edge -26.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Adam Doueihi @ $13.00 — model probability 26.5% (edge +18.8%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $8.50 — model probability 17.0% (edge +5.2%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $10.00 — model probability 13.8% (edge +3.8%)
- Setu Tu @ $9.50 — model probability 11.3% (edge +70.0%)
- Jahream Bula @ $12.00 — model probability 4.8% (edge -3.6%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 7.8pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -24.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1483.0m | Run Metres | 1611.2m |
| 2.4 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 342.4 | Tackles | 390.8 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 7.8 |
| Dragons | R18 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 20.0 |

### Referee Insight

**Peter Gough** — 187 career games since 2012.

When Peter Gough officiates, Dragons have won 14 of 27 games (52%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 10 from 27 (37%).

Peter Gough averages 14.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.7 against home vs 7.4 against away. 64% of his 11 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Wests Tigers win, around 23–21 (total ~45 — under the 47.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Adam Doueihi (26.5%, +18.8% edge over market), then Tyrell Sloan (17.0%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 47.5 line (model projects 45). Referee Peter Gough's games average 44.0.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)