# Wests Tigers v Dragons — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 22 – 24 Dragons

_Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Wests Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 54% / Dragons 46% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 16 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Sunia Turuva (15' 1st Tipped ⚡), Samuela Fainu (49'), Solomone Saukuru (70'), Solomone Saukuru (76') · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (22' Tipped ⚡), Hamish Stewart (31'), Moses Suli (37' Tipped ⚡), Lyhkan King-Togia (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 54% | Lost |
| Dragons | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 16 Aug 2026, 05:53 pm_

Wests Tigers 22–24 Dragons in NRL Round 24 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Missed tackles cost the Wests Tigers in their narrow 24-22 loss to the Dragons at CommBank Stadium. The Tigers missed 37 tackles, a crucial stat that overshadowed their 53% possession and 1,946 run metres compared to the Dragons' 1,708. Despite these advantages, the Dragons capitalised on the Tigers' defensive lapses, scoring four tries, including an 18-point burst between the 22nd and 38th minutes. This stretch gave the Dragons a lead they never lost.

The match began with promise for the Tigers as Sunia Turuva scored the opening try in the 15th minute, converted by Adam Doueihi. However, the Dragons quickly responded. Tyrell Sloan crossed the line in the 22nd minute, followed by tries from Hamish Stewart and Moses Suli. By half-time, the Dragons led 18-6, having converted all three tries. Their effective tackle rate of 89.3% was slightly better than the Tigers', but enough to make a difference in key moments.

Despite the Tigers' 87% completion rate and superior run metres, they couldn't convert these into a win. They managed 574 post-contact metres to the Dragons' 526 and offloaded more (8 to 5), but these efforts were undermined by their defensive shortcomings. Solomone Saukuru's two second-half tries brought the Tigers close, but the earlier damage was too much to overcome.

Valentine Holmes was crucial for the Dragons, converting key tries to maintain their lead. After Lyhkan King-Togia's try in the 59th minute, the Dragons extended their lead to 22-12. The Tigers mounted a late surge, with a successful captain’s challenge and tries from Saukuru and Samuela Fainu narrowing the gap. However, time ran out before they could find the winning score.

The Dragons, despite being outperformed in several areas, made the most of the Tigers' tackling errors. With two wins in their last five games, they showed composure under pressure. The Tigers, on the other hand, remained winless in their last five, struggling with familiar issues. They led only once, briefly, and couldn't close the game when it mattered.

Alphr's model had predicted a slight edge for the Tigers, expecting them to win by 2.2 points. The Dragons' actual two-point victory was close to the model's prediction, which also accurately forecasted a tight contest. The predicted total score of 45 was nearly spot on with the actual 46, highlighting the model's precision.

Ultimately, the Dragons' ability to turn the Tigers' mistakes into points was decisive. For the Tigers, it's back to the drawing board. Missed tackles cost them a much-needed win.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| Dragons | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 82% |
| **1,946** | Run metres | 1,708 |
| **574** | Post-contact metres | 526 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| 88.9% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| **741** | Kick metres | 740 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 54% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (187 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dragons's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Dragons have a 52% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 21' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 58' Try — Lyhkan King-Togia (Dragons) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -14 pts
- 70' Try — Solomone Saukuru (Wests Tigers) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — Solomone Saukuru (Wests Tigers) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.93 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 53.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 54%, but Dragons stay live at 46%. Form leans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Backline Quality, Team ELO and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Wests Tigers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dragons have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 24.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 14th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Dragons favourites, Wests Tigers $1.93 and Dragons $1.91, with the line at Wests Tigers +0.5 and the total at 47.5.

Wests Tigers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

Peter Gough has the whistle: 17.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 3 · Dragons 7 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 14th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.93 · Dragons $1.91 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +0.5 · total 47.5 |
| Rest gap | Wests Tigers 14d · Dragons 7d |
| Referee | Peter Gough · 17.7 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Peter Gough** — 187 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10W–17L | 37% |
| Dragons | 14W–13L | 52% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Peter Gough officiates, Dragons have won 14 of 27 games (52%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 10 from 27 (37%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Dragons's +0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 7.8pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -24.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1483.0m | Run Metres | 1611.2m |
| 2.4 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 342.4 | Tackles | 390.8 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 7.8 |
| Dragons | R18 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Dragons | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R9 | Wests Tigers | 34 – 28 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R14 | Dragons | 56 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R6 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R21 | Dragons | 18 – 14 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1.05 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 14th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.35/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.05/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.65/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 4 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 153m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 60 | 38 · 67 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 674m/g | 665m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.5/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 73.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 18 | 9 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 502m/g | 554m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.41) +37% · 2nd Rows 0.59/g (lg 0.47) +26%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.41) +44% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.22) +27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/11g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 16% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 70' 76' |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 6/12g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 11% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 5/22g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 20% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | LK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Setu Tu | RES | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/7g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 13% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 9 in 20g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 15/15g | 1/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 4/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/15g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Couchman | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1256 vs 1239), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.93). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1239 · Dragons 1256 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 | 1202 | Dragons +141 |
| Backs | 763 | 1158 | Dragons +395 |
| Halves | 1136 | 1144 | Dragons +8 |
| Hooker | 972 | 990 | Dragons +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halves Control | 26.8% | — |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 19.3% | Dragons |
| 3 | Team ELO | 18.8% | Dragons |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 13.8% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 8.3% | Dragons |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.5% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-16 07:53 UTC (latest tip update)