# Sharks v Raiders — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 20 – 24 Raiders

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Sharks._

Half time: 14 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 76% / Raiders 24% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Braydon Trindall (5' 1st), Teig Wilton (36'), William Kennedy (50' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Xavier Savage (11' Tipped ⚡), Owen Pattie (16'), Jed Stuart (32' Tipped ⚡), Joseph Tapine (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 76% | Lost |
| Raiders | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 14.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 15 Aug 2026, 04:53 pm_

Sharks 20–24 Raiders in NRL Round 24 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two sides went about it completely differently and the tidier one won.

Sharks had the ball more, 54 per cent of it, and used that time to run for 1,925 metres and 580 of them after contact. That's a side built to wear you down through volume. Raiders had less of everything except discipline. They completed at 89 per cent to the Sharks' 82, coughed the ball up only 9 times against 16, and let the boot do the rest, kicking for 741 metres to the Sharks' 481. One team wanted the ball in hand all day, the other was happy to have less of it and use it properly. On this occasion, patience with the football beat volume of carries.

Raiders 24, Sharks 20 at Ocean Protect Stadium, and it was built in one spell. Braydon Trindall opened the scoring inside five minutes to have the Sharks up 6-0, but from the 11th minute the Raiders ran off 18 unanswered points through Xavier Savage, Owen Pattie and Jed Stuart, turning an early deficit into a 16-8 lead by the 32nd minute. That burst is the whole game, really. The Sharks clawed sensibly back through Teig Wilton before the break to make it 14-18 at half-time, then rattled off 12 unanswered points of their own between the 36th and 51st minutes, William Kennedy's try levelling it at 18-18.

That's when it turned into an arm-wrestle. Joseph Tapine's try in the 56th minute put the Raiders back in front at 22-18, and after Nicho Hynes and Ethan Sanders traded the boot the margin held at four points to the end. The lead changed hands three times across the eighty, and Raiders had to survive an unsuccessful captain's challenge of their own late on, at the 75th minute, without it costing them anything.

Sharks were the more expansive side and it cost them. Seventeen offloads to the Raiders' ten shows the ambition, and 34 tackle breaks to 41 the other way says Raiders forwards, rated 1056 to the Sharks' 1096 coming in, still made metres hard to find. Where it really got away from the home side was in shape without the ball: 41 missed tackles to 34, and 16 errors to 9. Add four penalties conceded to nine and you've got a side that had won four of its last five games looking uncharacteristically loose.

Raiders arrived on the back of three wins from five and an average of 24.4 points conceded a game, so a defensive slog wasn't really the script. Instead their halves and hooker stocks, both rated close enough to the Sharks' pre-match (1148 to 1184, 1030 to 1028), got the platform right and let the forwards do enough. Four tries to three, cleaner hands, better use of the boot.

Alphr's model had Sharks favourites at 76 per cent and predicted them to win by 14.3 points, with a combined total of 44. The total landed bang on the number. The margin didn't, with the Raiders getting home by four instead of the Sharks by fourteen. Handy reminder that ratings tell you who should win on the balance of the sheet, not who wins the accuracy of the ball for eighty minutes.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Raiders | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 82% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| **1,925** | Run metres | 1,379 |
| **580** | Post-contact metres | 428 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 34 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **17** | Offloads | 10 |
| 85.1% | Effective tackle % | **86.5%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **34** |
| 16 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 481 | Kick metres | **741** |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 76% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.3 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (401 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 57% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 11' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 15' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 8-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 12-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 49' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 75.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 76% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 204 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1451. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 14.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 4th against Raiders 12th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.31 and Raiders $3.46, with the line at Sharks -10.5 and the total at 52.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 14.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-20 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 4th · Raiders 12th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.31 · Raiders $3.46 |
| Line | Sharks -10.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 14.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 401 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28W–21L | 57% |
| Raiders | 20W–23L | 47% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 10-point edge: 28W–21L (57%) vs Raiders's 20W–23L (47%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 34.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1732.6m | Run Metres | 1622.8m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 324.2 | Tackles | 334.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 36.4 |
| Raiders | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 34.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Raiders | 22 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | SF | Raiders | 12 – 32 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R5 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R8 | Raiders | 0 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R4 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 9th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.62/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.81/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 9th) | 1.29/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 12 | 14 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 3.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 48 | 46 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 730m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 19.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 12 | 18 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 469m/g | 536m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.89/g (lg 0.71) +25% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.47) +17%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 9 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 5/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 11 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·3·2·1·1·0·1) | 8/13g | 2/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 4/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 10/13g | 4/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 5/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 3/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 3/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 5/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Savelio Tamale | CE | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 9g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/27g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1654 · Raiders 1451 · ELO difference: 204 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1096 | 1056 | Sharks +40 |
| Backs | 942 | 947 | Raiders +5 |
| Halves | 1184 | 1148 | Sharks +36 |
| Hooker | 1028 | 1030 | Raiders +2 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 35.4% | Sharks |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 10.5% | Sharks |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.9% | Sharks |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.9% | Sharks |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.7% | — |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 6.2% | — |
| 7 | Rest Days | 4.1% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Sharks predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-15 06:53 UTC (latest tip update)