# Sharks v Raiders — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 20 – 24 Raiders

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Sharks._

Half time: 14 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 76% / Raiders 24% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Braydon Trindall (5' 1st), Teig Wilton (36'), William Kennedy (50' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Xavier Savage (11' Tipped ⚡), Owen Pattie (16'), Jed Stuart (32' Tipped ⚡), Joseph Tapine (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 76% | Lost |
| Raiders | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 14.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sharks vs Raiders Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 15 Aug 2026, 04:53 pm_

Sharks 20–24 Raiders in NRL Round 24 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Sharks fell short in their clash against the Raiders, losing 20-24 at Ocean Protect Stadium. They started strong with Braydon Trindall opening the scoring, and their performance through the opening stages was full of promise. Yet, despite their advantage in possession (54%) and a haul of 1,925 run metres, it was surprisingly not enough. The Sharks' pack outmuscled their opponents, with 580 post-contact metres, but their defensive lapses ultimately cost them.

Throughout the game, the Sharks were plagued by errors, making 16 compared to the Raiders’ 9. While their completion rate of 82% wasn’t shabby, it was overshadowed by the Raiders' 89%. The Sharks also struggled in defence, missing 41 tackles to the Raiders' 34. Despite this, they ground out some impressive yardage, but failing to capitalise on it handed the Raiders the advantage.

In a game where the lead changed hands thrice, the Sharks had their chances. They entered the half-time break trailing by just four points, with a score of 14-18. William Kennedy's try shortly after the restart brought them level, and it looked like the momentum might shift their way. However, a quick response from Joseph Tapine in the 56th minute kept the Raiders ahead, and the Sharks couldn't mount another comeback.

The Sharks' backline wasn’t able to break through a resolute Raiders defence that held firm, despite conceding 9 penalties. Offloads stood in the Sharks' favour at 17-10, but the potential gains from this advantage were muted by their inability to convert opportunities into points. Errors at critical moments were costly for a team that had, on paper, the stronger halves.

The Raiders will be content with their execution. Their kicking game was a masterclass in territorial control, outbooting the Sharks with 741 kick metres. In a tightly contested arm-wrestle, those metres stacked up. Xavier Savage, Owen Pattie, and Jed Stuart all crossed for the Raiders during their 18-unanswered-point blitz between the 11th and 34th minutes. The Raiders' ability to absorb pressure and respond swiftly was decisive.

Pre-match predictions had heavily favoured the Sharks, with our model giving them a 76% win probability. The expected margin of 14.3 points for the Sharks was off the mark, and the Raiders’ triumph was a clear upset. However, the total points expected aligned perfectly with the actual combined score of 44, offering some solace in accuracy.

For the Sharks, this result will sting, especially as they were the form team coming into this fixture, winning four of their last five. Their scoring potential wasn’t realised here, and while they managed to pull back into the game briefly, the Raiders' discipline and strategic precision saw them through. The Sharks will need to regroup and tackle those defensive frailties and handling errors if they're to bounce back effectively.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Raiders | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 82% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| **1,925** | Run metres | 1,379 |
| **580** | Post-contact metres | 428 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 34 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **17** | Offloads | 10 |
| 85.1% | Effective tackle % | **86.5%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **34** |
| 16 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 481 | Kick metres | **741** |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 76% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.3 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (401 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 57% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. 65% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 11' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 15' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 8-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 12-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 49' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 75.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 76% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 204 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1451. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 14.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 4th against Raiders 12th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.31 and Raiders $3.46, with the line at Sharks -10.5 and the total at 52.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 14.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-20 |
| Sharks last 4 | LWLL · 88 for, 108 against |
| Sharks at home | 8-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 4th · Raiders 12th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.31 · Raiders $3.46 |
| Line | Sharks -10.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 14.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 401 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28W–21L | 57% |
| Raiders | 20W–23L | 47% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 10-point edge: 28W–21L (57%) vs Raiders's 20W–23L (47%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 65% of his 182 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 34.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1732.6m | Run Metres | 1622.8m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 324.2 | Tackles | 334.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 36.4 |
| Raiders | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 34.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Raiders | 22 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | SF | Raiders | 12 – 32 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R5 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R8 | Raiders | 0 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R4 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 9th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.05/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.62/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.81/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 9th) | 1.29/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 12 | 14 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 3.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 48 | 46 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 730m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 19.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 12 | 18 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 469m/g | 536m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.89/g (lg 0.71) +25% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.47) +17%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 9 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 5/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 11 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·3·2·1·1·0·1) | 8/13g | 2/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 4/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 10/13g | 4/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 5/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 3/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 3/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 5/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Savelio Tamale | CE | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 9g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/27g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1654 · Raiders 1451 · ELO difference: 204 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1096 | 1056 | Sharks +40 |
| Backs | 942 | 947 | Raiders +5 |
| Halves | 1184 | 1148 | Sharks +36 |
| Hooker | 1028 | 1030 | Raiders +2 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 35.4% | Sharks |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 10.5% | Sharks |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.9% | Sharks |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.9% | Sharks |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.7% | Sharks |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 6.2% | Sharks |
| 7 | Rest Days | 4.1% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Sharks predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-15 06:53 UTC (latest tip update)