# Sharks v Raiders — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Sharks v Raiders?

Alphr's NRL model makes Sharks a clear 76% favourite over Raiders in Round 24. Predicted result: Sharks by 14 in a low-scoring game (44 total, under the 52.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Sharks lead on Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Nicho Hynes leads at +19.3% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Sharks v Raiders
Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 75.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Sharks here: 76% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 204 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1451. Form leans Sharks's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 14.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Nicho Hynes @ $2.55 — model probability 58.5% (edge +19.3%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.64 — model probability 72.0% (edge +11.0%)
- Sione Katoa @ $1.60 — model probability 72.2% (edge +9.7%)
- Jed Stuart @ $2.10 — model probability 54.0% (edge +6.3%)
- KL Iro @ $2.07 — model probability 53.4% (edge +5.1%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.40 — model probability 43.0% (edge +1.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jed Stuart @ $12.00 — model probability 11.4% (edge +3.1%)
- Ethan Strange @ $15.00 — model probability 9.5% (edge +2.8%)
- Nicho Hynes @ $13.00 — model probability 10.2% (edge +2.5%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $8.00 — model probability 14.8% (edge +2.2%)
- Sione Katoa @ $7.50 — model probability 14.8% (edge +1.5%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 34.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1732.6m | Run Metres | 1622.8m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 324.2 | Tackles | 334.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 36.4 |
| Raiders | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 34.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Gerard Sutton** — 401 career games since 2012.

Sharks hold a 10-point edge: 28W–21L (57%) vs Raiders's 20W–23L (47%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Sharks get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Raiders's -2.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Sharks win, around 29–15 (total ~44 — under the 52.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Sione Katoa (14.8%, +1.5% edge over market), then Ronaldo Mulitalo (14.8%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 52.5 line (model projects 44). Referee Gerard Sutton's games average 41.5.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)