# Sea Eagles v Dolphins — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 0 – 22 Dolphins

_Dolphins outswim Sea Eagles._

Half time: 0 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 28% / Dolphins 72% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Fri, 14 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: none · Dolphins: Kodi Nikorima (29' 1st), Selwyn Cobbo (57' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (62'), Jamayne Isaako (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 72% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.4 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 14 Aug 2026, 07:51 pm_

Sea Eagles 0–22 Dolphins in NRL Round 24 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Sea Eagles' night at Brookvale Oval ended without a point on the board. Despite some solid stats, they couldn't turn possession into points, losing 22-0 to the Dolphins. They kept their errors to 14 compared to the Dolphins' 17 and matched them with a 74% completion rate. They also conceded fewer penalties, four to the Dolphins' seven.

But the scoreboard tells the real story. The Sea Eagles managed just one line break against the Dolphins' six, struggling to penetrate a solid Dolphins defence. Their halves were rated stronger, but it didn't show on the field.

Defensive lapses cost them. Tolutau Koula's sin-bin in the 29th minute for a professional foul was a turning point. The Dolphins capitalised, scoring 6 points with Kodi Nikorima's try soon after. This marked the start of a 22-point run by the Dolphins between the 26th and 73rd minutes.

The Dolphins played a sharp game. They conceded more penalties and made more errors, but they took their chances in attack. Kodi Nikorima led the charge, with the Dolphins repeatedly breaking the line and cutting through the Sea Eagles' defence. Their backline, rated significantly higher, proved its worth by consistently making metres post-contact.

Selwyn Cobbo, Jack Bostock, and Jamayne Isaako also scored, cementing the Dolphins' dominance. Isaako missed two conversions, but with 22 points, the Dolphins were still comfortably ahead. Connelly Lemuelu’s sin-bin in the 36th minute didn't slow them down. Their defence held firm, even a man down, keeping the Sea Eagles scoreless.

The Sea Eagles had a 92.3% tackle effectiveness compared to the Dolphins' 90.4%, but that didn't translate into points. They broke tackles as well as the Dolphins, 26 to 24, but couldn't convert those into scoring opportunities.

Alphr's model favoured the Dolphins, giving them a 72% chance of winning. They were expected to win by about 13.4 points. The 22-point margin exceeded expectations, but the predicted 55 total points was an overestimate against the actual 22-point game.

In the end, while the Sea Eagles showed some promise, the Dolphins' higher-rated forwards and backs had too much class. The Sea Eagles struggled to break through and couldn't stop the Dolphins' aggressive attack. It's back to the drawing board for the Sea Eagles, as the Dolphins walk away with a clean victory and lessons for the next round.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dolphins | 8 | 14 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 74% | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,572 | Run metres | **1,898** |
| 608 | Post-contact metres | **672** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **26** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| **92.3%** | Effective tackle % | 90.4% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 26 |
| **14** | Errors | 17 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 491 | Kick metres | **525** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 13.4 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. The game's 22 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 55. Dolphins led 0–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 5/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 9.5-point line. The 13+ margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (331 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 21 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 28' Sin Bin — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 29' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 35' Sin Bin — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 0-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 57' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 61' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 73' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 13 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 72% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 179 ELO points clear, 1601 to 1422. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Sea Eagles.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 13.4, with the two sides combining for about 55. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 22-0 in 2026 Round 24.

Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Dolphins 5th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Sea Eagles $3.25 and Dolphins $1.35, with the line at Sea Eagles +9.5 and the total at 50.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Sea Eagles 3 · Dolphins 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 22-0 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Dolphins 5th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $3.25 · Dolphins $1.35 |
| Line | Sea Eagles +9.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.4 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 331 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 21W–19L | 53% |
| Dolphins | 7W–6L | 54% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Sea Eagles 21W–19L (53%) and Dolphins 7W–6L (54%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.6pts |
| 1513.2m | Run Metres | 1715.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 338.0 | Tackles | 365.4 |
| 13.2 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R23 L | 19.2 |
| Dolphins | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R22 W · R23 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Sea Eagles lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Dolphins | 18 – 52 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R25 | Sea Eagles | 58 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R10 | Dolphins | 30 – 24 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 58 – 18 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.55/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.65/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.45/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 8 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 182m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 57 · 39 | 66 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 737m/g | 866m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 21.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.2% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 91% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Faulalo | FB | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/16g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 12 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0) | 2/3g | 28/48g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 5/4g | 27/44g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 7 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/3g | 42/67g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 14 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 14/27g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 23/48g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/39g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 18/106g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Nicholas Lenaz | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Fletcher Baker | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jackson Shereb | RES | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 6/7g | 3/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 70% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 18 in 20g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 5/9g | 2/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 13 in 15g | 12/10g (1·0·1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1) | 6/5g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 6 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/6g | 3/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Max Plath | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 4/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1422 · Dolphins 1601 · ELO difference: 179 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 910 | 1085 | Dolphins +175 |
| Backs | 792 | 1107 | Dolphins +315 |
| Halves | 1150 | 995 | Sea Eagles +154 |
| Hooker | 880 | 967 | Dolphins +87 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 61.3% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 15.6% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 5.7% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 4.3% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.7% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Halves Control | 2.6% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 55 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-14 09:51 UTC (latest tip update)