# Sea Eagles v Dolphins — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Sea Eagles v Dolphins?

Alphr's NRL model makes Dolphins a clear 72% favourite over Sea Eagles in Round 24. Predicted result: Dolphins by 13 in a high-scoring game (55 total, over the 50.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Dolphins lead on Team ELO, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Clayton Faulalo leads at +24.6% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Sea Eagles v Dolphins
Fri, 14 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.3%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 13 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 72% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 179 ELO points clear, 1601 to 1422. Form leans Dolphins's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Sea Eagles.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 13.4, with the two sides combining for about 55. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Clayton Faulalo @ $2.70 — model probability 61.6% (edge +24.6%)
- Jason Saab @ $2.12 — model probability 67.3% (edge +20.1%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.55 — model probability 82.0% (edge +17.5%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $2.45 — model probability 57.2% (edge +16.3%)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $1.74 — model probability 70.4% (edge +12.9%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $2.80 — model probability 48.2% (edge +12.5%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jason Saab @ $12.00 — model probability 17.0% (edge +8.7%)
- Clayton Faulalo @ $13.00 — model probability 14.6% (edge +6.9%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $8.00 — model probability 18.4% (edge +5.9%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $13.00 — model probability 12.9% (edge +5.2%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $13.00 — model probability 10.0% (edge +2.4%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.6pts |
| 1513.2m | Run Metres | 1715.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 338.0 | Tackles | 365.4 |
| 13.2 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R23 L | 19.2 |
| Dolphins | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R22 W · R23 W | 23.2 |

### Referee Insight

**Grant Atkins** — 331 career games since 2012.

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Sea Eagles 21W–19L (53%) and Dolphins 7W–6L (54%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Sea Eagles get a +6.0 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's +0.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Dolphins win, around 34–21 (total ~55 — over the 50.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Selwyn Cobbo (18.4%, +5.9% edge over market), then Jason Saab (17.0%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 50.5 line (model projects 55). Referee Grant Atkins's games average 43.3.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)