# Panthers v Roosters — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Panthers v Roosters?

Alphr's NRL model rates Panthers a narrow 54% favourite over Roosters in Round 24 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Panthers by 2 in a low-scoring game (38 total, under the 42.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Panthers lead on Halves Control, Hooker & Ruck and Rest Days. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Billy Smith leads at +19.6% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Panthers v Roosters
Thu, 13 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.77 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 54.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Overview

Panthers are the call at 54%, but Roosters stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 48 ELO points clear, 1687 to 1639. Form leans Roosters's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Panthers.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Panthers, which says Halves Control and Hooker & Ruck carry the most weight. The margin model has Panthers by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $2.35 — model probability 62.2% (edge +19.6%)
- James Tedesco @ $2.60 — model probability 57.4% (edge +18.9%)
- Jaxen Edgar @ $2.90 — model probability 45.7% (edge +11.2%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.73 — model probability 67.8% (edge +10.0%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $2.00 — model probability 59.0% (edge +9.0%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.90 — model probability 34.0% (edge -50.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Thomas Jenkins @ $7.00 — model probability 22.7% (edge +8.4%)
- Billy Smith @ $11.00 — model probability 16.2% (edge +7.1%)
- James Tedesco @ $12.00 — model probability 14.2% (edge +5.9%)
- Jaxen Edgar @ $13.00 — model probability 12.2% (edge +4.5%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $9.00 — model probability 14.9% (edge +3.8%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 33.4pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 19.4pts |
| 1733.4m | Run Metres | 1744.2m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 381.0 | Tackles | 316.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R18 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 25.2 |
| Roosters | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 33.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Adam Gee** — 305 career games since 2012.

Panthers hold a 5-point edge: 30W–12L (71%) vs Roosters's 27W–14L (66%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 14 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.5 against home vs 7.6 against away. Panthers get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -4.7.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Panthers win, around 20–18 (total ~38 — under the 42.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Thomas Jenkins (22.7%, +8.4% edge over market), then Billy Smith (16.2%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 42.5 line (model projects 38). Referee Adam Gee's games average 42.9.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)