# Panthers v Roosters — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 6 – 12 Roosters

_Roosters rule the roost over a gallant Panthers._

Half time: 0 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 60% / Roosters 40% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 13 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Moses Leota (66') · Roosters: Daly Cherry-Evans (20' 1st), Daly Cherry-Evans (77' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 60% | Lost |
| Roosters | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Panthers vs Roosters Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 07:40 pm · Last updated: 13 Aug 2026, 09:45 pm_

Panthers 6–12 Roosters in NRL Round 24 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Panthers had the edge in possession, holding the ball 52% of the time, but it wasn't enough as they fell 12–6 to the Roosters at CommBank Stadium. Their 73% completion rate highlighted missed opportunities, with 16 errors proving costly. Despite leading in run metres with 1,828 to the Roosters' 1,668, the Panthers couldn't convert this advantage into points.

Moses Leota's try in the 66th minute, converted by Nathan Cleary, brought the Panthers within two points. However, an unsuccessful captain's challenge at the 71st minute halted their momentum. The Panthers' defence struggled, missing 44 tackles compared to the Roosters' 37. They managed 13 offloads to the Roosters' seven, but these didn't translate into a significant scoreboard impact. The Panthers' defensive line was breached three times, one less than the Roosters, which contributed to their narrow defeat.

The Roosters were efficient, completing at 78% and capitalising on their chances. Daly Cherry-Evans was instrumental, scoring two tries, including the opening one in the 20th minute. Sam Walker converted Cherry-Evans' first try and added a penalty goal just before half-time, giving the Roosters an 8-0 lead at the break.

Roosters controlled territory with 782 kick metres, applying pressure on the Panthers throughout. Their forwards, rated higher pre-match, were crucial in gaining 640 post-contact metres, showcasing their strength in yardage battles. Despite conceding more penalties, particularly in the second half, the Roosters maintained their composure and kept the Panthers at bay.

Alphr's model had predicted a Panthers win with a 4.8-point margin and a total score around 39 points. However, the Roosters defied expectations, securing an upset with a combined score of just 18 points. Their recent form, with five consecutive wins leading into this match, proved more indicative than the pre-match ratings suggested.

Ultimately, the match was a tight contest decided by who could make the most of their opportunities. The Roosters did just that, securing a victory that extends their winning streak. The Panthers are left to reflect on missed chances and the need to convert possession into points to improve in future games.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Roosters | 8 | 4 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 73% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| **1,828** | Run metres | 1,668 |
| 577 | Post-contact metres | **640** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **44** |
| **13** | Offloads | 7 |
| 87.7% | Effective tackle % | **88.3%** |
| 44 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| 16 | Errors | **14** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 631 | Kick metres | **782** |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 60% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 18 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 2/19 on this match. Roosters covered the 6.5-point line. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (305 career games). The combined score of 18 points was 25 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 71% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 19' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 66' Try — Moses Leota (Panthers) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 76' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.50 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 60.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 60%, but Roosters stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Roosters sit 48 ELO points clear, 1687 to 1639, so the model is backing Panthers against the ratings gap. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Panthers.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Panthers, which says Halves Control and Hooker & Ruck carry the most weight. The margin model has Panthers by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 12-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Panthers have won 3 straight; Panthers are 10-2 at home this year. Roosters have lost 3 straight. Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Roosters 2nd.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.50 and Roosters $2.60, with the line at Panthers -6.5 and the total at 42.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 17.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Roosters 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 12-6 |
| Panthers last 4 | LWWW · 90 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 10-2 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Roosters 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Panthers $1.50 · Roosters $2.60 |
| Line | Panthers -6.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 17.0 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Adam Gee** — 305 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30W–12L | 71% |
| Roosters | 27W–14L | 66% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 5-point edge: 30W–12L (71%) vs Roosters's 27W–14L (66%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Panthers get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.8. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 33.4pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 19.4pts |
| 1733.4m | Run Metres | 1744.2m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 381.0 | Tackles | 316.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R18 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 25.2 |
| Roosters | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 33.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Roosters | 4 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R7 | Roosters | 12 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R2 | Panthers | 32 – 38 | Roosters |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R4 | Roosters | 16 – 22 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 28 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.1 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.95/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.1/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.7/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.95/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.1/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 9 | 15 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 201m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 63 · 28 | 69 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 855m/g | 725m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 535m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.41) +5%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.48/g (lg 0.47) +2% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.41) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxen Edgar | RES | 2 in 3g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 28 in 20g | 12/10g (2·0·2·0·2·3·0·1·2·0) | 4/3g | 16/17g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 8/17g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 11% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Izack Tago | CE | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 9/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 11 in 18g | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 11/22g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jack Cogger | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/15g | 6/24g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/27g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Henry | PR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 3/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 7/38g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/15g | 5/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Scott | RES | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 13% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 16g | 10/10g (2·0·3·2·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/24g | 2/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 20' 77' |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | RES | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1687 vs 1639), but the market favours Panthers (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1639 · Roosters 1687 · ELO difference: 48 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 994 | 1087 | Roosters +94 |
| Backs | 997 | 1092 | Roosters +95 |
| Halves | 1256 | 1165 | Panthers +91 |
| Hooker | 996 | 908 | Panthers +89 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forward Pack | 30.5% | Roosters |
| 2 | Halves Control | 20.9% | Panthers |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 11.1% | Roosters |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 11.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 8.6% | Panthers |
| 6 | Team ELO | 4.9% | Panthers |
| 7 | Rest Days | 4.8% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Panthers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-panthers-v-roosters
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-13 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)