# Knights v Titans — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Knights v Titans?

Alphr's NRL model makes Knights a clear 70% favourite over Titans in Round 24. Predicted result: Knights by 9 in a low-scoring game (48 total, under the 49.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Knights lead on Team ELO, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Fletcher Sharpe leads at +19.2% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Knights v Titans
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.22 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 69.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Knights by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Knights here: 70% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 207 ELO points clear, 1524 to 1318.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Knights by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.12 — model probability 66.3% (edge +19.2%)
- Phillip Sami @ $2.03 — model probability 66.7% (edge +17.4%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $3.00 — model probability 42.6% (edge +9.2%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $3.30 — model probability 35.5% (edge +5.2%)
- Dominic Young @ $1.51 — model probability 66.7% (edge +50.0%)
- AJ Brimson @ $3.50 — model probability 27.9% (edge -70.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Phillip Sami @ $11.00 — model probability 20.5% (edge +11.4%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $11.00 — model probability 17.1% (edge +8.0%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $15.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +3.7%)
- Dominic Young @ $6.50 — model probability 17.3% (edge +1.9%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $15.00 — model probability 8.2% (edge +1.5%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 1619.8m | Run Metres | 1707.4m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 360.6 | Tackles | 338.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W | 24.8 |
| Titans | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 21.6 |

### Referee Insight

**Liam Kennedy** — 68 career games since 2012.

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Knights have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Titans get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.8. 70% of his 10 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Knights win, around 28–20 (total ~48 — under the 49.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Phillip Sami (20.5%, +11.4% edge over market), then Dominic Young (17.3%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 49.5 line (model projects 48). Referee Liam Kennedy's games average 46.2.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)