# Knights v Titans — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 36 – 26 Titans

_Knights lay siege to Titans._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 70% / Titans 30% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Dane Gagai (5' 1st), Greg Marzhew (7' Tipped ⚡), Dane Gagai (17' 1st), Fletcher Hunt (48'), Fletcher Sharpe (61' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (69' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (74' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Beau Fermor (32'), Jayden Campbell (36' Tipped ⚡), Kurtis Morrin (56'), Beau Fermor (78'), Lachlan Ilias (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 70% | Won |
| Titans | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Knights vs Titans Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 16 Aug 2026, 04:01 pm_

Knights 36–26 Titans in NRL Round 24 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Knights took down the Titans 36–26 at McDonald Jones Stadium, using bursts of scoring to keep the Titans at bay. The Knights led 16–10 at half-time, thanks to a quick start that saw them score 16 unanswered points between the 5th and 19th minutes. Dane Gagai got the ball rolling with the first try, and Greg Marzhew followed suit, helping the Knights establish an early lead.

Despite having more possession at 52%, the Titans couldn't make it count. Their defence struggled, missing 45 tackles compared to the Knights' 34. The Knights were more effective in attack, breaking the line seven times to the Titans' five and making 45 tackle breaks to the Titans' 34. The Titans did manage to close the gap before the break with tries from Beau Fermor and Jayden Campbell, but they were always playing catch-up.

In terms of handling, the Titans were slightly more disciplined, committing 8 errors to the Knights' 11. They also completed their sets at a higher rate, 82% to the Knights' 79%. However, it was the Knights who made their chances count on the scoreboard.

The second half saw another Knights' surge, with 16 unanswered points from the 61st to the 75th minute. Fletcher Sharpe was key during this period, scoring twice. Greg Marzhew added another try, pushing the Knights' lead to 22 points by the 75th minute, which was their biggest lead of the match.

The Titans made a late push, scoring 12 points between the 78th and 79th minutes with tries from Beau Fermor and Lachlan Ilias. But it was too little, too late. The Knights had already done enough to secure the win.

Defensively, the Knights were more resilient, with an effective tackle rate of 86.7%. While the Titans won the yardage battle, racking up more run metres and post-contact metres, it was the Knights' ability to convert their opportunities that made the difference.

Alphr's model had predicted a Knights win with a margin of 8.7 points, and the Knights delivered with a 10-point victory. The Titans did cover the 12.5-point line, but the match largely followed expectations, with the Knights capitalising on their attacking chances to seal the result.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16 | 20 | 36 |
| Titans | 10 | 16 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,687 | Run metres | **1,909** |
| 474 | Post-contact metres | **576** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| **86.7%** | Effective tackle % | 84.5% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **520** | Kick metres | 476 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Knights by 8.7 vs the actual margin of 10 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Titans covered the 12.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (68 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Knights's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Knights have a 55% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 7' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 17' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 36' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 56' Try — Kurtis Morrin (Titans) — 20-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 60' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 24-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 69' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 30-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 34-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 77' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 36-18 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Lachlan Ilias (Titans) — 36-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.22 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 70% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 207 ELO points clear, 1524 to 1318.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Knights by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 36-26 in 2026 Round 24.

Knights have put up 122 points in four games. Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 6th against Titans 15th.

The market has Knights favourites, Knights $1.22 and Titans $4.30, with the line at Knights -12.5 and the total at 49.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 14.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 7 · Titans 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 36-26 |
| Knights last 4 | WWLL · 122 for, 140 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 6th · Titans 15th |
| Finals odds | Knights 100% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Knights $1.22 · Titans $4.30 |
| Line | Knights -12.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 14.3 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Liam Kennedy** — 68 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 6W–5L | 55% |
| Titans | 3W–11L | 21% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Knights have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Titans get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 1619.8m | Run Metres | 1707.4m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 360.6 | Tackles | 338.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W | 24.8 |
| Titans | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Titans | 12 – 36 | Knights |
| 2025 | R10 | Knights | 20 – 24 | Titans |
| 2025 | R3 | Titans | 26 – 6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R26 | Knights | 36 – 14 | Titans |
| 2024 | R11 | Titans | 24 – 28 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 13th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.76/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.35/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) | 0.7/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 14 | 14 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 213m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 49 | 34 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 745m/g | 764m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.2% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 17 | 13 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.65/g (lg 0.41) +59% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.28) +32%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 8/12g | 31/62g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 19 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 11/6g | 29/39g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/20g | 26/116g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' 17' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 19 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 28/39g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 69' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/4g | 16/19g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 74' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 8/63g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/52g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | RES | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 10/62g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/10g | 3/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 14 in 20g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·2) | 8/10g | 4/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Patston | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 32' 78' |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 15 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Bodhi Sharpley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1524 · Titans 1318 · ELO difference: 207 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1127 | 1074 | Knights +54 |
| Backs | 1054 | 940 | Knights +115 |
| Halves | 1292 | 951 | Knights +341 |
| Hooker | 1054 | 1096 | Titans +42 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 43.2% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 20.1% | Titans |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.3% | Titans |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 6.2% | Knights |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.1% | Titans |
| 6 | Recent Win Rate | 2.5% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Knights predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-16 06:01 UTC (latest tip update)