# Eels v Cowboys — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 32 – 30 Cowboys

_Eels survive a scare against Cowboys._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 45% / Cowboys 55% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 15 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Apa Twidle (14' Tipped ⚡), Ronald Volkman (19'), Tallyn Da Silva (22'), Josh Addo-Carr (43'), Tallyn Da Silva (54'), Jordan Samrani (62' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Reed Mahoney (10' 1st), Braidon Burns (30' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (48'), Reuben Cotter (51'), Tom Chester (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 55% | Lost |
| Eels | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Eels vs Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 15 Aug 2026, 07:23 pm_

Eels 32–30 Cowboys in NRL Round 24 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model tipped Cowboys by 2.3, but Eels turned that script on its head with a 32–30 win at CommBank Stadium. The predicted total was 45 points; reality clocked in at 62. A tight margin missed by a whisker, but the rest was wide of the mark.

Early on, Cowboys' Reed Mahoney opened the scoring. Eels responded quickly. Apa Twidle and Ronald Volkman got them up and running within seven minutes, flipping the game's momentum. Eels led 14–6 by the 22nd minute. A sin-binning for Heilum Luki added to Cowboys' woes. Eels capitalised, adding four points while he was off.

Cowboys weren't out yet. They closed the gap to 14–12 by half-time. After the break, Cowboys surged with tries from Jaxon Purdue and Reuben Cotter, taking the lead 18–22. A 12-point spree in five minutes had them dictating terms. But Eels had their own ideas.

Tallyn Da Silva crossed over for his second try, and Jordan Samrani added another to regain Eels' advantage. Cowboys' Tom Chester scored, inching them back, but Mitchell Moses nudged Eels ahead with a crucial penalty. Eels held onto a two-point lead.

Eels had 53% possession and made it count. They broke through 7 lines compared to Cowboys' 5, finding attacking edges. Cowboys had more tackle breaks, but line breaks were more damaging. Cowboys had a slightly better tackle efficiency at 88.1% compared to Eels' 86%, but Eels' discipline, conceding only three penalties to Cowboys' seven, made a difference.

In the yardage battle, Eels pushed through for more post-contact metres, 626 against Cowboys' 579. Eels had fewer turnovers, spilling just five balls to Cowboys' seven. Cowboys had a higher completion rate at 94%, but Eels made their metres count.

Going into the game, Eels had a slight edge in the forward pack, with a 1123 rating over Cowboys' 1089. Despite Cowboys having higher-rated halves and backs, Eels found a way through. Their hooker play was key, with a 994-rated performance over Cowboys' 600.

Wins are wins, and numbers won't argue this one away. The model took a hit, landing just 5 out of 17 on this match. Cowboys were expected to show more, entering stronger in form with a recent win-loss pattern of WLWLW against Eels' WLLWL. Yet the result flipped expectations with that tightest of finishes, and Eels managed to cover what was a 5.5-point line on paper. Call it an upset, or just another day in the NRL.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 89% | Completion rate | **94%** |
| **1,670** | Run metres | 1,603 |
| **626** | Post-contact metres | 579 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| 5 | Offloads | **9** |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **88.1%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **38** |
| **5** | Errors | 7 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 678 | Kick metres | **685** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 55% prediction for Cowboys, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 5/17 on this match. Eels covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (117 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Reed Mahoney (Cowboys) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 13' Try — Apa Twidle (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Sin Bin — Heilum Luki (Cowboys) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 21' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 29' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 42' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Reuben Cotter (Cowboys) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 54' Penalty Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 22-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 57' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 24-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 62' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 28-30 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.54 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 54.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 55%, but Eels stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 126 ELO points clear, 1482 to 1356. Form leans Cowboys' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Cowboys by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 32-30 in 2026 Round 24.

Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 13th against Cowboys 8th.

The market has Cowboys favourites, Eels $2.49 and Cowboys $1.54, with the line at Eels +5.5 and the total at 50.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 14.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 8 · Cowboys 2 |
| Last meeting | Eels 32-30 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | WLWL · 114 for, 100 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 13th · Cowboys 8th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Cowboys 100% |
| Market | Eels $2.49 · Cowboys $1.54 |
| Line | Eels +5.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 14.2 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 117 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 9W–8L | 53% |
| Cowboys | 7W–7L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Eels 9W–8L (53%) and Cowboys 7W–7L (50%). Games average 46.4 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.6pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.8pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 1572.2m | Run Metres | 1611.8m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 343.0 | Tackles | 349.2 |
| 13.8 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R18 W · R19 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L | 18.6 |
| Cowboys | R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Cowboys | 30 – 33 | Eels |
| 2025 | R23 | Eels | 19 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R6 | Eels | 27 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R21 | Cowboys | 24 – 16 | Eels |
| 2023 | R13 | Eels | 24 – 16 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 12th there (1.81 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.85 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.85/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.95/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.85/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.48/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.81/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.7/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th) | 1.14/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 16 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 53 | 49 · 63 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 691m/g | 752m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.3% | 76.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 20 | 19 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 457m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.28) +32% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46% · Centres 1.03/g (lg 0.71) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apa Twidle | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 3/13g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 19/50g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 5/17g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/13g | 20/31g | 34% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/15g | 21/70g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 6/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 22' 54' |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 11/90g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 4/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Saxon Pryke | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jezaiah Funa | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 9 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·2·2·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 11 in 16g | 5/10g (3·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Jaxon Purdue | HB | 7 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 3/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 8 | Griffin Neame | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 11/46g | 14% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/20g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 10 in 21g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | John Bateman | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1356 · Cowboys 1482 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1123 | 1089 | Eels +33 |
| Backs | 933 | 937 | Cowboys +4 |
| Halves | 1211 | 1230 | Cowboys +18 |
| Hooker | 994 | 600 | Eels +394 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 37.1% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 19.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 16.6% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 12.3% | Eels |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.6% | Eels |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 2.4% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-15 09:23 UTC (latest tip update)