# Bulldogs v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 6 – 22 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs hop past Bulldogs._

Half time: 0 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 60% / Rabbitohs 40% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 14 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Enari Tuala (62') · Rabbitohs: David Fifita (22' 1st), Alex Johnston (28' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (41' Tipped ⚡), Campbell Graham (47' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Dufty (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 60% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 14 Aug 2026, 09:54 pm_

Bulldogs 6–22 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 24 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Rabbitohs' steady, controlled play outmatched the Bulldogs' more aggressive but error-prone approach at Accor Stadium. Winning 22-6, the Rabbitohs maintained 55% possession and completed sets at an impressive 89%. This discipline was key to their success. The Bulldogs, despite generating 1,595 run metres, faltered with 12 errors and missed 41 tackles. These mistakes left them vulnerable to the Rabbitohs' organised attack.

The game's turning point came between the 22nd and 47th minutes when the Rabbitohs scored 18 unanswered points. David Fifita opened the scoring in the 22nd minute. Alex Johnston added another try six minutes later, followed by Tallis Duncan and Campbell Graham. This surge highlighted the Rabbitohs' strength and precision, which the Bulldogs' defence couldn't handle.

Run metre stats told a clear story. The Rabbitohs covered 1,987 metres, with 668 post-contact metres showing their ability to sustain drives and break through the Bulldogs' line. The Bulldogs, while managing 1,595 run metres, couldn't convert these into points due to a lack of discipline and cohesion.

Ball control was crucial. The Rabbitohs made only seven errors compared to the Bulldogs' twelve, giving them more chances to capitalise on possession. They turned these opportunities into four line breaks, exploiting defensive lapses with precision. Their patience in attack paid off, as they waited for the right moments to strike.

Defensively, the Bulldogs struggled, missing 41 tackles to the Rabbitohs' 24. Despite a 90.2% effective tackle rate, the Bulldogs crumbled under pressure. The Rabbitohs' 41 tackle breaks demonstrated their ability to keep the Bulldogs on the defensive, wearing them down over time.

Alphr’s model had favoured the Bulldogs by 3.9 points, but the Rabbitohs defied expectations with a decisive win. The model predicted a close contest, missing the actual 16-point margin and the total points, which fell to 28, well below the expected 43.

Ultimately, the Rabbitohs' blend of control and sharp offence was too much for the Bulldogs. Discipline and ball control were decisive, leaving the Bulldogs to reconsider their risky strategy against a well-organised opponent. The Rabbitohs' methodical dismantling of the Bulldogs showcased a team playing to its strengths and sticking to fundamentals. This contrast led to a straightforward victory.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Rabbitohs | 10 | 12 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| 1,595 | Run metres | **1,987** |
| 557 | Post-contact metres | **668** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **12** | Offloads | 5 |
| **90.2%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 12 | Errors | **7** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 761 | Kick metres | **803** |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 60% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 28 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (416 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 15 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 22' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 28' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 40' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 46' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 61' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 4-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Matthew Dufty (Rabbitohs) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 60%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 40%.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Bulldogs by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 22-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 9th against Rabbitohs 7th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.57 and Rabbitohs $2.41, with the line at Bulldogs -3.5 and the total at 43.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Rabbitohs 7 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 22-6 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 9th · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.57 · Rabbitohs $2.41 |
| Line | Bulldogs -3.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 416 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–17L | 57% |
| Rabbitohs | 31W–28L | 53% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Bulldogs 23W–17L (57%) and Rabbitohs 31W–28L (53%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Rabbitohs get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Bulldogs's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 1627.0m | Run Metres | 1599.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 333.2 | Tackles | 334.2 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 24.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 18 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R7 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 36 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 8th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 10th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 25 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 10th) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 8th) | 1.4/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.45/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 10 | 11 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 241m/g | 158m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 82.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 49 | 66 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 807m/g | 718m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 16.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 13 | 19 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 486m/g | 581m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.28) +57% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.41) +32%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.47) -6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 5/31g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/7g | 13/39g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 18/46g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | CE | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/11g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 7 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 11/14g | 16/33g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 7/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/46g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 9/35g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/32g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/8g | 2/38g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 8/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | INT | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 7/30g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | RES | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/15g | 16% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 25 in 17g | 16/10g (2·3·1·0·4·0·1·1·1·3) | 18/20g | 99/95g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/25g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/12g | 7/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 5/12g | 29/59g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 34/95g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 6/68g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 11/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 12 | Adam Elliott | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 17/70g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | RES | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 7/18g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Euan Aitken | INT | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 6/23g | 22% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Rabbitohs hold the ELO advantage (1501 vs 1492), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.57). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1492 · Rabbitohs 1501 · ELO difference: 10 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1114 | 1174 | Rabbitohs +61 |
| Backs | 941 | 1127 | Rabbitohs +186 |
| Halves | 1251 | 949 | Bulldogs +302 |
| Hooker | 1025 | 1033 | Rabbitohs +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halves Control | 26.8% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Team ELO | 24.9% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.4% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.3% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 7.8% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 5.4% | — |
| 7 | Referee Tendency | 4.1% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-14 11:54 UTC (latest tip update)