# Bulldogs v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Bulldogs v Rabbitohs?

Alphr's NRL model rates Bulldogs a 60% favourite over Rabbitohs in Round 24. Predicted result: Bulldogs by 4 in a low-scoring game (43 total, under the 43.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Bulldogs lead on Halves Control, Team ELO and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Stephen Crichton leads at +29.8% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Bulldogs v Rabbitohs
Fri, 14 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57 (edge -80.0%) — model probability 59.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Overview

Bulldogs are the call at 60%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 40%.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Bulldogs by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Stephen Crichton @ $2.90 — model probability 64.3% (edge +29.8%)
- Alex Johnston @ $1.73 — model probability 80.8% (edge +23.0%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $3.25 — model probability 45.0% (edge +14.2%)
- Campbell Graham @ $2.20 — model probability 57.5% (edge +12.1%)
- Jacob Preston @ $3.10 — model probability 37.3% (edge +5.1%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $1.83 — model probability 49.7% (edge -4.9%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $7.50 — model probability 24.0% (edge +10.7%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $14.00 — model probability 16.9% (edge +9.7%)
- Campbell Graham @ $10.00 — model probability 12.5% (edge +2.5%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $14.00 — model probability 8.7% (edge +1.6%)
- Jacob Preston @ $14.00 — model probability 7.6% (edge +50.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 1627.0m | Run Metres | 1599.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 333.2 | Tackles | 334.2 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 24.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 24.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Ashley Klein** — 416 career games since 2012.

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Bulldogs 23W–17L (57%) and Rabbitohs 31W–28L (53%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Ashley Klein averages just 1.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Rabbitohs get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Bulldogs's -1.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Bulldogs win, around 24–20 (total ~43 — under the 43.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Alex Johnston (24.0%, +10.7% edge over market), then Stephen Crichton (16.9%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 43.5 line (model projects 43). Referee Ashley Klein's games average 43.4.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-bulldogs-v-rabbitohs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)