# Broncos v Warriors — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 6 – 40 Warriors

_Warriors march past Broncos._

Half time: 0 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 33% / Warriors 67% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 15 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Xavier Willison (61') · Warriors: Jacob Laban (8' 1st), Chanel Harris-Tavita (14'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (18' Tipped ⚡), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (46' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (52' Tipped ⚡), Ali Leiataua (55'), Leka Halasima (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 67% | Won |
| Broncos | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Aug 2026, 06:04 pm · Last updated: 15 Aug 2026, 09:33 pm_

Broncos 6–40 Warriors in NRL Round 24 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos 6, Warriors 40. At Suncorp Stadium, the clash was defined by contrasting approaches. The Warriors focused on patience and ball control, while the Broncos relied on raw metres. Despite the Broncos managing 1,152 run metres, they couldn't convert that into points. The Warriors, however, picked their moments with precision.

Possession was slightly in the Warriors' favour at 52%, but their completion rate of 85% compared to the Broncos' 77% highlighted their efficiency. The Warriors minimised errors, making just 7 compared to the Broncos' 11. It wasn't just about holding onto the ball but making the most of it.

Jacob Laban opened the scoring in the 8th minute, setting the tone for the Warriors. They ran in 36 unanswered points by the 57th minute. Their forwards, rated higher at 1214 to the Broncos' 1101, laid a solid platform. Even Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad's sin-binning for a hip drop in the 17th minute didn't slow them down. They outscored the Broncos 8-0 while a man down, showing discipline and intent.

The Broncos' only try came through Xavier Willison in the 61st minute, but by then the game was out of reach. The Broncos were ambitious, offloading 11 times to the Warriors' four, but it didn't pay off. An effective tackle rate of 88.7% wasn't enough to stop the Warriors' onslaught. Missing 37 tackles compounded their problems.

The Warriors' attack was sharper, breaking the line five times to the Broncos’ three. Chanel Harris-Tavita was instrumental, scoring and converting, despite a few misses. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Ali Leiataua, and Leka Halasima also contributed to the scoreboard. The Broncos could only watch as the Warriors' backline, rated 1030 to the Broncos' 859, ran riot.

From the start, the Broncos were up against it, with their halves outmatched: 1389 to 1101. The Warriors' superior form was evident from their last five matches, with four wins, averaging 25.6 points and conceding just 10.8. The Broncos, on the other hand, averaged 25.6 points conceded. When those numbers met, the result was inevitable.

Alphr's model had the Warriors to win with a 67% probability. It underestimated the margin, predicting a nine-point swing, but the Warriors stormed home by 34. The total points call was closer, predicted at 52, ending at 46. An off night for the margin model, but it was spot on about who’d do the damage.

In the end, it was about game management and patience versus a frantic attempt to catch up. The Warriors took the cautious route and were rewarded. The Broncos, ambitious but lacking control, couldn’t keep pace. A lesson in balance, perhaps, but one the Broncos learned the hard way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Warriors | 20 | 20 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,152 | Run metres | **1,671** |
| 396 | Post-contact metres | **531** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **11** | Offloads | 4 |
| **88.7%** | Effective tackle % | 86.9% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 620 | Kick metres | **699** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.3 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 52 was close to the actual 46, within 6 points. Warriors led 0–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 7/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 6.5-point line. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (56 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 13' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 17' Sin Bin — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 0-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 45' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 0-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 51' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 55' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 0-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 60' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 4-36 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 77' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 6-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.42 (edge -0.2%) — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 67% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 312 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1321. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 52. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 40-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 16th against Warriors 3rd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Broncos $2.87 and Warriors $1.42, with the line at Broncos +6.5 and the total at 45.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 14.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 16th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Broncos $2.87 · Warriors $1.42 |
| Line | Broncos +6.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 14.1 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 56 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Warriors | 6W–3L | 67% |

Avg total: 49.6 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 9 games (67%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 6 (50%). Games average 49.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| -10.0pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1498.0m | Run Metres | 1889.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 337.8 | Tackles | 342.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R18 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 15.6 |
| Warriors | R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Warriors | 42 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R17 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R7 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R17 | Warriors | 32 – 16 | Broncos |
| 2023 | PF | Broncos | 42 – 12 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 12th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.85 conceded/game). Key man: Karapani, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 13th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.15/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.3/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.85/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.45/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.65/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.3/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 19 | 19 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 84.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 54 | 54 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 644m/g | 678m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 15.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 10 | 21 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 536m/g | 595m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.41) +12% · Centres 0.78/g (lg 0.71) +10% · Wingers 1.13/g (lg 1.27) -11%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.71) +20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 24/45g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/26g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 49/91g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 22% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/3g | 13/35g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/18g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 2/5g | 24/46g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 9/42g | 24% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 9/55g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 9/89g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 13/77g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/75g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | RES | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/25g | 26/123g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Va'a Semu | RES | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·4·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 3/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 18 in 19g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/12g | 8/19g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/4g | 23% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Leka Halasima | CE | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 7/7g | 11/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 2/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 2/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 11/40g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 2/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | RES | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1321 · Warriors 1633 · ELO difference: 312 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 | 1214 | Warriors +113 |
| Backs | 859 | 1030 | Warriors +171 |
| Halves | 1101 | 1389 | Warriors +288 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 934 | Broncos +266 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 52.2% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 11.5% | Warriors |
| 3 | Halves Control | 9.6% | Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 9.2% | Warriors |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 2.9% | Warriors |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.2% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-15 11:33 UTC (latest tip update)