# Broncos v Warriors — NRL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Broncos v Warriors?

Alphr's NRL model makes Warriors a clear 67% favourite over Broncos in Round 24. Predicted result: Warriors by 9 in a high-scoring game (52 total, over the 45.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Warriors lead on Team ELO, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Ezra Mam leads at +15.9% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Broncos v Warriors
Sat, 15 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 24

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.42 (edge -20.0%) — model probability 66.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Warriors here: 67% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 312 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1321. Form leans Warriors's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 52. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $3.05 — model probability 48.7% (edge +15.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $2.80 — model probability 39.6% (edge +3.9%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $1.61 — model probability 64.4% (edge +2.3%)
- Luke Metcalf @ $2.70 — model probability 37.9% (edge +90.0%)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak @ $1.64 — model probability 56.1% (edge -4.9%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $2.75 — model probability 21.6% (edge -14.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Deine Mariner @ $15.00 — model probability 8.9% (edge +2.2%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $7.50 — model probability 15.2% (edge +1.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $13.00 — model probability 7.4% (edge -30.0%)
- Luke Metcalf @ $13.00 — model probability 7.0% (edge -70.0%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $13.00 — model probability 6.9% (edge -70.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| -10.0pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1498.0m | Run Metres | 1889.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 337.8 | Tackles | 342.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R18 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 15.6 |
| Warriors | R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 W · R23 W | 25.6 |

### Referee Insight

**Wyatt Raymond** — 56 career games since 2012.

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 9 games (67%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 6 (50%). Games average 49.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Broncos).

Broncos get a +-0.7 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's -1.3.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Warriors win, around 31–21 (total ~52 — over the 45.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Alofiana Khan-Pereira (15.2%, +1.9% edge over market), then Deine Mariner (8.9%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 45.5 line (model projects 52). Referee Wyatt Raymond's games average 49.6.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)