# Storm v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 42 – 20 Sea Eagles

_Storm roar back to whip up a storm against Sea Eagles._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 36% / Sea Eagles 64% · HBF Park, Perth · Sat, 08 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Tyran Wishart (34'), Hayden Watson (38'), Oryn Keeley (56'), Sualauvi Faalogo (58'), Moses Leo (68' Tipped ⚡), Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (72') · Sea Eagles: Brandon Wakeham (3' 1st), Tolutau Koula (22' Tipped ⚡), Blake Wilson (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 64% | Lost |
| Storm | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 8 Aug 2026, 04:57 pm_

Storm 42–20 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 23 at HBF Park, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Missed tackles were the key stat at HBF Park. Storm defeated the Sea Eagles 42–20, with the Sea Eagles missing 44 tackles compared to Storm's 23. This gap highlighted the night: Storm's defence held firm while their attack slipped through the Sea Eagles' grasp.

At half-time, Storm trailed 14–12. They had already shown their potential with two late first-half tries from Tyran Wishart and Hayden Watson. The second half was all Storm, scoring 42 unanswered points. Nick Meaney's boot was crucial, adding penalty goals and conversions to keep the scoreboard moving.

Storm's contact play was effective, busting 44 tackles to the Sea Eagles' 23. Their 12 offloads to the Sea Eagles' 8 kept the pressure on. Oryn Keeley scored after Meaney's penalty goals, and Moses Leo and Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown added to the tally. Storm's forward momentum was relentless.

Possession was close, with Storm holding 51%. The difference was in execution. Storm's 77% completion rate and 10 errors contrasted with the Sea Eagles' 68% and 14 errors. The Sea Eagles struggled to maintain rhythm.

The Sea Eagles had their moments, scoring 14 unanswered points early through Brandon Wakeham and Tolutau Koula. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown's sin-binning for a late tackle gave them a brief advantage, but they couldn't sustain it. They led once, only to see Storm surge back.

Kick metres showed Storm's control. They kicked 532 metres to the Sea Eagles' 301, dictating territory and momentum. Storm's superior kicking kept the Sea Eagles pinned back.

Pre-match models favoured the Sea Eagles by 5.8 points. Storm's 22-point win defied expectations. ELO ratings gave the Sea Eagles an edge, but Storm's defence and possession play won out. Once Storm took the lead, they didn't look back.

Defensive solidity and sharp attack were key for Storm. They outclassed the Sea Eagles in crucial areas: hard to break down and quick to capitalise. With possession stats nearly equal, being tougher to tackle and more clinical made all the difference.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12 | 30 | 42 |
| Sea Eagles | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 68% |
| **1,357** | Run metres | 1,269 |
| 430 | Post-contact metres | **441** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **12** | Offloads | 8 |
| **89.9%** | Effective tackle % | 83.4% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| **532** | Kick metres | 301 |

**Model Report Card**

Storm defied the model's 64% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 22 points. Storm trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 42–20. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Brandon Wakeham (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Sin Bin — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 21' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 38' Try — Hayden Watson (Storm) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Oryn Keeley (Storm) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 58' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 26-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 67' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 34-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 72' Try — Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown (Storm) — 40-14 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 77' Try — Blake Wilson (Sea Eagles) — 42-18 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.72 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 63.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 64%, but Storm stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 33 ELO points clear, 1463 to 1430.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Storm 12th against Sea Eagles 10th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Storm $2.13 and Sea Eagles $1.72, with the line at Storm +1.5 and the total at 48.5.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 12 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 5 · Sea Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 12th · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Storm $2.13 · Sea Eagles $1.72 |
| Line | Storm +1.5 · total 48.5 |
| Rest gap | Storm 7d · Sea Eagles 12d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 1595.4m | Run Metres | 1634.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 361.2 | Tackles | 332.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R17 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 16.0 |
| Sea Eagles | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 4 | Storm |
| 2025 | R20 | Storm | 16 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 48 | Storm |
| 2024 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 20 | Storm |
| 2023 | R17 | Storm | 24 – 6 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 10th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Keeley, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 16th there (1.45 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.63/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.53/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.32/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 11 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 233m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 53 | 55 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 673m/g | 746m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.3/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 75.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 24 | 17 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 522m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.36/g (lg 1.27) +7% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.71) -1% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.47) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at HBF Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 15 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/16g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Hayden Watson | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyran Wishart | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Angus Hinchey | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 14 in 18g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 12 in 18g | 11/10g (3·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 8/8g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 83% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Blake Wilson | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Fletcher Baker | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1430 · Sea Eagles 1463 · ELO difference: 33 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1031 | 1018 | Storm +13 |
| Backs | 898 | 888 | Storm +10 |
| Halves | 1165 | 1332 | Sea Eagles +167 |
| Hooker | 1190 | 817 | Storm +374 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 27.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Halves Control | 19.5% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Hooker & Ruck | 15.7% | Storm |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 11.3% | — |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 10.4% | — |
| 6 | Recent Win Rate | 8.2% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-storm-v-sea-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-08 06:57 UTC (latest tip update)