# Roosters v Bulldogs — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Roosters v Bulldogs?

Alphr's NRL model makes Roosters a clear 74% favourite over Bulldogs in Round 23. Predicted result: Roosters by 11 in a low-scoring game (43 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Roosters lead on Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — James Tedesco leads at +23.1% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Roosters v Bulldogs
Fri, 07 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 73.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Roosters here: 74% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 173 ELO points clear, 1676 to 1504. Form leans Roosters's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Bulldogs.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Roosters by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- James Tedesco @ $2.08 — model probability 71.2% (edge +23.1%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.50 — model probability 47.5% (edge +18.9%)
- Billy Smith @ $1.80 — model probability 71.1% (edge +15.6%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $2.12 — model probability 61.5% (edge +14.3%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.45 — model probability 52.7% (edge +11.8%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.55 — model probability 75.4% (edge +10.9%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jethro Rinakama @ $10.00 — model probability 18.1% (edge +8.1%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $17.00 — model probability 12.2% (edge +6.4%)
- James Tedesco @ $10.00 — model probability 15.9% (edge +5.9%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $7.00 — model probability 17.9% (edge +3.6%)
- Billy Smith @ $8.00 — model probability 15.9% (edge +3.4%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.2pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 1810.2m | Run Metres | 1695.2m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 321.2 | Tackles | 336.2 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 34.2 |
| Bulldogs | R17 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 26.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Grant Atkins** — 330 career games since 2012.

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 36 of 58 games (62%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 34 (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Bulldogs get a +-1.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Roosters's -4.5.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Roosters win, around 27–16 (total ~43 — under the 45.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Jethro Rinakama (18.1%, +8.1% edge over market), then Mark Nawaqanitawase (17.9%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 43). Referee Grant Atkins's games average 43.3.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-04 10:14 UTC (latest tip update)