# Roosters v Bulldogs — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 20 – 18 Bulldogs

_Roosters strut past a gallant Bulldogs._

Half time: 8 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 74% / Bulldogs 26% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 07 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Billy Smith (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Siua Wong (26'), Billy Smith (67' 1st Tipped 🎯), Salesi Foketi (69') · Bulldogs: Jacob Kiraz (45'), Lachlan Galvin (52'), Jacob Kiraz (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 74% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 7 Aug 2026, 09:56 pm_

Roosters 20–18 Bulldogs in NRL Round 23 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Roosters edged Bulldogs 20-18 at Allianz Stadium. The Bulldogs struck first with a Stephen Crichton penalty, but the Roosters responded quickly. Billy Smith's try put them ahead, and they led 8-2 at half-time. The game was tight, with the Roosters slightly ahead but far from comfortable.

The Roosters showed more discipline, completing 72% of their sets compared to the Bulldogs' 66%. They made fewer errors, 12 to the Bulldogs' 17. Despite this, the Bulldogs were more threatening in attack, breaking the line six times to the Roosters' three. The Roosters, however, managed to keep the Bulldogs in check.

After the break, the Bulldogs came out firing. They scored 16 unanswered points, with tries from Jacob Kiraz and Lachlan Galvin, taking a 10-point lead by the 56th minute. The Roosters found themselves under pressure.

The Roosters fought back. Billy Smith and Salesi Foketi scored tries, with Sam Walker converting both to level the score at 18-18. A successful captain's challenge helped maintain their momentum.

Jacob Kiraz was a standout for the Bulldogs, but they couldn't capitalise on their possession. The Roosters' effective tackling, at 87.2% compared to the Bulldogs' 86.6%, was crucial in holding them off.

The Roosters' kicking game was also a factor. They kicked for 717 metres, compared to the Bulldogs' 608, which helped them control territory and apply pressure at key moments. The match was decided by fine margins. The Bulldogs' 16-point run was countered by a 12-point Roosters blitz, keeping the game balanced until the end.

Alphr's model predicted a Roosters win with a 74% probability. The actual margin was tighter than the predicted 11.1, but the 1-12 margin band call was accurate. The total score of 38 was close to the predicted 43, showing the model's accuracy in a tense finish.

The Roosters came into the match with a five-game winning streak and an average score of 34.2. The Bulldogs had a lower average score of 26.4. The Roosters used their positional strengths, particularly in the halves and hooker positions, to edge out the Bulldogs. It was a close, intense match, but the Roosters managed to handle the scoreboard pressure better.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| Bulldogs | 2 | 16 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **72%** | Completion rate | 66% |
| 1,399 | Run metres | **1,466** |
| 451 | Post-contact metres | **466** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **29** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| 11 | Offloads | **16** |
| **87.2%** | Effective tackle % | 86.6% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 29 |
| **12** | Errors | 17 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **717** | Kick metres | 608 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 11.1 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (330 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 62% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Siua Wong (Roosters) — 8-2 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 44' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 8-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 51' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 8-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 55' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 8-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 66' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 12-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 69' Try — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 74% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 173 ELO points clear, 1676 to 1504. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Bulldogs.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Roosters by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2026 Round 23.

Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 2nd against Bulldogs 8th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.33 and Bulldogs $3.30, with the line at Roosters -9.5 and the total at 45.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 15.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 20-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLW · 90 for, 105 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 2nd · Bulldogs 8th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.33 · Bulldogs $3.30 |
| Line | Roosters -9.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 15.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 330 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 36W–22L | 62% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–18L | 47% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 36 of 58 games (62%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 34 (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.2pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 1810.2m | Run Metres | 1695.2m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 321.2 | Tackles | 336.2 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 34.2 |
| Bulldogs | R17 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Roosters | 32 – 12 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R11 | Bulldogs | 24 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R16 | Roosters | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R5 | Bulldogs | 30 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R14 | Roosters | 25 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.16 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 4th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.37 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.37/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.79/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.63/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 2.16/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.47/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 8 | 12 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 245m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 67 · 40 | 30 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 814m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 12 | 18 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 570m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.27) +6% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.47) -13%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.41) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 6/12g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' 67' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 5/14g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/16g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 15g | 12/10g (2·2·0·3·2·0·0·0·0·3) | 2/2g | 17/18g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/27g | 5/30g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 9 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/5g | 11/26g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/32g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 6% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/21g | 14% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 7/47g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 7/50g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 5/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | RES | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/2g | 44% | — | 🏉 45' 56' |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 7/8g | 1/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | CE | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 5/11g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | RES | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 28% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1676 · Bulldogs 1504 · ELO difference: 173 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1134 | 1115 | Roosters +19 |
| Backs | 1183 | 1079 | Roosters +104 |
| Halves | 1289 | 1293 | Bulldogs +4 |
| Hooker | 996 | 639 | Roosters +357 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 41.4% | Roosters |
| 2 | Halves Control | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 10.2% | Roosters |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.1% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 8.9% | Roosters |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 3.2% | Roosters |
| 7 | Referee Tendency | 2.9% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Roosters predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-07 11:56 UTC (latest tip update)