# Raiders v Knights — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Raiders v Knights?

Alphr's NRL model rates Raiders a narrow 55% favourite over Knights in Round 23 — effectively a coin-flip. The margin model has it line-ball — a low-scoring game (46 total, under the 46.5 line) with little between them on the scoreboard. **Confidence: Low.** Knights are stronger on paper, but Team ELO and Halves Control tip the model to Raiders. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Fletcher Sharpe leads at +18.2% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Raiders v Knights
Sun, 09 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.84 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Overview

Raiders are the call at 55%, but Knights stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 27 ELO points clear, 1502 to 1474. Form leans Raiders's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

On paper Knights shade it, ahead on 3 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Pack and Hooker & Ruck. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Team ELO and Halves Control carry the most weight. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.70 — model probability 55.3% (edge +18.2%)
- Xavier Savage @ $1.90 — model probability 69.0% (edge +16.4%)
- Ethan Strange @ $2.85 — model probability 49.3% (edge +14.2%)
- Kaeo Weekes @ $2.07 — model probability 58.8% (edge +10.5%)
- Jed Stuart @ $2.12 — model probability 54.3% (edge +7.1%)
- Kalyn Ponga @ $2.65 — model probability 44.1% (edge +6.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 13.8% (edge +6.1%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $9.00 — model probability 16.7% (edge +5.6%)
- Xavier Savage @ $9.50 — model probability 16.1% (edge +5.6%)
- Dominic Young @ $9.00 — model probability 15.2% (edge +4.1%)
- Kalyn Ponga @ $13.00 — model probability 10.0% (edge +2.3%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 34.4pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1690.0m | Run Metres | 1691.0m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 328.8 | Tackles | 362.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 34.4 |
| Knights | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W | 21.4 |

### Referee Insight

**Ashley Klein** — 415 career games since 2012.

Raiders hold a 10-point edge: 25W–28L (47%) vs Knights's 16W–27L (37%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Ashley Klein averages just 1.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Raiders win, around 24–23 (total ~46 — under the 46.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Greg Marzhew (16.7%, +5.6% edge over market), then Xavier Savage (16.1%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 46.5 line (model projects 46). Referee Ashley Klein's games average 43.4.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-04 10:14 UTC (latest tip update)