# Raiders v Knights — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 24 – 30 Knights

_Knights charge down a gallant Raiders._

Half time: 18 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 55% / Knights 45% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 09 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Jed Stuart (18' Tipped ⚡), Zac Hosking (23'), Simi Sasagi (34'), Simi Sasagi (43') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dominic Young (10' Tipped ⚡), Kalyn Ponga (26' Tipped ⚡), Dane Gagai (58'), Dominic Young (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 55% | Lost |
| Knights | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 9 Aug 2026, 03:56 pm_

Raiders 24–30 Knights in NRL Round 23 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Line breaks: 10 to 3. That's the stat that sealed the deal for the Knights, as they edged past the Raiders 30–24 at GIO Stadium. In a game that saw multiple swings, the Knights’ ability to break through the defence proved the turning point.

Both sides went into the break locked at 18–18. The Knights raced to a 12-point lead by the 12th minute with tries from Fletcher Sharpe and Dominic Young. The Raiders answered back with their own 12-point streak between the 18th and 24th minutes, with Jed Stuart and Zac Hosking stepping up.

The Raiders briefly took the upper hand after half-time, with Simi Sasagi adding his second try. They even slotted a penalty goal to lead 24–18 by the 55th minute. But then the Knights unleashed their final flurry. Dane Gagai’s try shifted the momentum before Sandon Smith's penalty goal put them ahead. Dominic Young's second try in the 78th minute sealed the match, as the Knights owned the final phase of scoring with 12 unanswered points.

The Knights had an edge across the backline, going in rated at 1131 to the Raiders' 1007. This wasn't just theory; they made it a reality on the pitch, with Ponga and Gagai adding crucial tries. In the middle, the Knights' forwards were slightly favoured (1093 to 1034), and they held their ground, even as the Raiders clocked up 1,539 run metres to the Knights' 1,492.

The Raiders might feel a twinge of regret when they see the stat sheet. They were more disciplined in some areas, completing their sets at 78% compared to the Knights' 73%, and made fewer errors. They also dominated the post-contact metres, gaining 529 to the Knights’ 417. Yet, they conceded vital penalties in the second half and missed an eye-watering 46 tackles, compared to the Knights' 35.

Corey Horsburgh's 73rd-minute sin-binning didn't help matters either. The Knights capitalised on his absence, adding another four points to their tally. The Raiders' defensive lapses and ill-timed penalties compounded their troubles in a match where every point mattered.

Alphr’s model had tipped the Raiders, granting them a slight edge with a 55% win probability. Based on recent form, with the Raiders winning four of their last five, that wasn't a stretch. Yet the Knights defied expectations. The model's prediction of a razor-thin margin was close enough, underlined by the match's actual tight six-point difference.

In the end, the Knights' ability to bust through defensive lines was the decisive factor. Missed tackles and defensive gaps left the Raiders reeling, despite their strong start and dogged fight. For the Knights, it was a matter of taking their chances. Simple as that.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| Knights | 18 | 12 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,539** | Run metres | 1,492 |
| **529** | Post-contact metres | 417 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 87.1% | Effective tackle % | **88.4%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **607** | Kick metres | 576 |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 55% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.9 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 6/17 on this match. Knights covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (415 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 11 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Knights bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 47% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Knights prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 10' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 25' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 43' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 57' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 24-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 73' Sin Bin — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 24-22 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 78' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 24-30 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.84 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 55%, but Knights stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Knights sit 27 ELO points clear, 1502 to 1474, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

On paper Knights shade it, ahead on 3 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Recent Win Rate and Hooker & Ruck carry the most weight. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 11th against Knights 6th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.84 and Knights $2.00, with the line at Raiders -1.5 and the total at 46.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-24 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLWW · 88 for, 110 against |
| Knights away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 11th · Knights 6th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Raiders $1.84 · Knights $2.00 |
| Line | Raiders -1.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Ashley Klein** — 415 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 25W–28L | 47% |
| Knights | 16W–27L | 37% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 10-point edge: 25W–28L (47%) vs Knights's 16W–27L (37%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 34.4pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1690.0m | Run Metres | 1691.0m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 328.8 | Tackles | 362.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 34.4 |
| Knights | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Knights | 32 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R21 | Raiders | 44 – 18 | Knights |
| 2025 | R17 | Knights | 18 – 22 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R18 | Raiders | 12 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R1 | Knights | 12 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 16th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Weekes, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.85 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 8th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 8th) | 1.85/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 10th) | 1.7/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 18 | 11 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 185m/g | 214m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 49 | 56 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 740m/g | 746m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.9/g | 20.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 18 | 19 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 536m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.89/g (lg 0.71) +25% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.56/g (lg 0.47) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/7g | 18/35g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 7/18g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 5/26g | 32% | — | 🏉 34' 43' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/12g | 20/59g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 23/38g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 13/31g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 10/105g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 12 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/43g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | HK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 8/68g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 8g | 2/9g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/26g | 30/137g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/8g | 4/12g | 14% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 5/11g | 1/5g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 17 in 20g | 6/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 7/9g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 78' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/29g | 6/14g | 8% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 19 in 19g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 8/8g | 3/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 9 in 18g | 7/10g (2·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Knights hold the ELO advantage (1502 vs 1474), but the market favours Raiders (@1.84). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1474 · Knights 1502 · ELO difference: 27 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1034 | 1093 | Knights +59 |
| Backs | 1007 | 1131 | Knights +124 |
| Halves | 1295 | 1315 | Knights +21 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1054 | Raiders +146 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 25.8% | Knights |
| 2 | Halves Control | 24.8% | Knights |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 21.1% | Raiders |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 12.7% | Knights |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.6% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Raiders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 05:56 UTC (latest tip update)