# Rabbitohs v Eels — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 28 – 24 Eels

_Rabbitohs survive a scare against Eels._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 65% / Eels 35% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tevita Tatola (6'), Alex Johnston (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Brandon Smith (18'), Alex Johnston (25' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jye Gray (39') · Eels: Tallyn Da Silva (43'), Ryley Smith (46'), Ronald Volkman (50'), Jordan Samrani (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 65% | Won |
| Eels | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 8 Aug 2026, 09:34 pm_

Rabbitohs 28–24 Eels in NRL Round 23 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Our model had the Rabbitohs as favourites against the Eels, and they delivered at Allianz Stadium. With a 65% chance of victory, the model predicted a Rabbitohs win by 3.7 points. The final score was 28–24, just a touch more than expected. The combined total was forecast at 50, and the actual was 52. Close enough to call it a win for the model.

The match was a game of two halves. The Rabbitohs dominated early, leading 28–0 at half-time. Alex Johnston was on fire, scoring three tries in the first 25 minutes. The Rabbitohs took advantage of Brian Kelly's sin-binning in the second minute, scoring 14 points while he was off. Their 28-point blitz in the first 39 minutes set the stage for their win.

The Eels, however, didn't go quietly. They came out strong in the second half, scoring 24 unanswered points between the 43rd and 67th minutes. Tallyn Da Silva's try early in the second half sparked their comeback. Mitchell Moses was reliable with the boot, converting all four tries. Despite closing the gap, the Eels couldn't quite complete the comeback.

Statistically, the Eels had the upper hand in some areas, which helped their second-half push. They held 52% possession and had a better completion rate at 84%. Their offloading game was strong, with 11 offloads to the Rabbitohs' 3. They also gained 577 post-contact metres compared to the Rabbitohs' 473. But these numbers couldn't erase the first-half deficit.

The Rabbitohs were more effective in attack, breaking the line 10 times to the Eels' 3. This attacking edge was crucial. Both teams made errors, but the Rabbitohs capitalised on their opportunities. They also broke 36 tackles compared to the Eels' 23, showing their strength in contact.

The Eels used their kicking game well, with 657 kick metres to the Rabbitohs' 508. This gave them some territorial advantage, but it wasn't enough to convert into the points they needed. The Eels missed 36 tackles, while the Rabbitohs missed 23, a gap that proved costly against a team that had its scoring sorted in the first half.

In the end, the Rabbitohs' early surge was decisive. Our model's prediction of a close contest held up, though it didn't anticipate the dramatic shift in momentum between halves. The Rabbitohs secured the win, validating the model's pre-match read. The Eels will regret their slow start, while the Rabbitohs will be relieved to have held on. Another chapter in the books.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Eels | 0 | 24 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 81% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,541 | Run metres | **1,776** |
| 473 | Post-contact metres | **577** |
| **10** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| 3 | Offloads | **11** |
| 88.5% | Effective tackle % | **88.6%** |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 508 | Kick metres | **657** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 65% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 3.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 52, within 2 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Eels covered the 9.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (55 career games). The 52-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Sin Bin — Brian Kelly (Eels) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 2' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 6' Try — Tevita Tatola (Rabbitohs) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 9' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 17' Try — Brandon Smith (Rabbitohs) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 25' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 39' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 43' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 28-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 46' Try — Ryley Smith (Eels) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 49' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 67' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 28-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.37 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 64.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 115 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1371.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Rabbitohs to win, not to win big.

Rabbitohs have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Eels are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 7th against Eels 13th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.37 and Eels $3.11, with the line at Rabbitohs -9.5 and the total at 46.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 10.8 penalties a game (average), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 9 · Eels 1 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-24 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 7th · Eels 13th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 100% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.37 · Eels $3.11 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -9.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 10.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 55 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Eels | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 49.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Rabbitohs 3W–4L (43%) and Eels 4W–5L (44%). Games average 49.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Rabbitohs).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Rabbitohs's -0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1614.2m | Run Metres | 1534.4m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 338.6 | Tackles | 348.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 15.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 21.6 |
| Eels | R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R21 L · R22 W | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Eels | 12 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Eels |
| 2024 | R18 | Eels | 16 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 42 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.74 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.95/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 10th) | 0.84/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.37/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 9th) | 1.89/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.84/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.68/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.74/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 13 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 160m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 82.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 62 · 45 | 32 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 717m/g | 692m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 77.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 16 | 11 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 584m/g | 457m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Centres 1.04/g (lg 0.71) +46% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.13) +69% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.27) +59% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.41) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 22 in 16g | 15/10g (2·2·3·1·0·4·0·1·1·1) | 18/17g | 11/20g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 25% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 10' 25' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 2/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 2/8g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 6/15g | 2/15g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 2/18g | 10% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Adam Elliott | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | WG | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/16g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/18g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sam Tuivaiti | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 10 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Saxon Pryke | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Junior Paulo | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1486 · Eels 1371 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1114 | 1065 | Rabbitohs +50 |
| Backs | 1109 | 935 | Rabbitohs +174 |
| Halves | 1040 | 1047 | Eels +7 |
| Hooker | 802 | 980 | Eels +178 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 30.6% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 15.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Halves Control | 12.7% | — |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 9.2% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 8.8% | Eels |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 5.9% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-08 11:34 UTC (latest tip update)