# Rabbitohs v Eels — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Rabbitohs v Eels?

Alphr's NRL model makes Rabbitohs a clear 65% favourite over Eels in Round 23. Predicted result: Rabbitohs by 4 in a high-scoring game (50 total, over the 46.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Rabbitohs lead on Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Alex Johnston leads at +20.7% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Rabbitohs v Eels
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.37 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 64.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 115 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1371.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Rabbitohs to win, not to win big.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $1.52 — model probability 86.5% (edge +20.7%)
- Campbell Graham @ $1.75 — model probability 70.5% (edge +13.4%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $2.30 — model probability 55.8% (edge +12.3%)
- Will Penisini @ $3.05 — model probability 38.2% (edge +5.4%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $2.95 — model probability 35.2% (edge +1.3%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $3.50 — model probability 27.4% (edge -1.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $6.50 — model probability 25.2% (edge +9.8%)
- Campbell Graham @ $8.50 — model probability 15.4% (edge +3.6%)
- Will Penisini @ $15.00 — model probability 9.5% (edge +2.8%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $14.00 — model probability 8.6% (edge +1.4%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $11.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +1.2%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1614.2m | Run Metres | 1534.4m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 338.6 | Tackles | 348.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 15.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 21.6 |
| Eels | R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R21 L · R22 W | 16.2 |

### Referee Insight

**Wyatt Raymond** — 55 career games since 2012.

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Rabbitohs 3W–4L (43%) and Eels 4W–5L (44%). Games average 49.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Rabbitohs).

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Rabbitohs win, around 27–23 (total ~50 — over the 46.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Alex Johnston (25.2%, +9.8% edge over market), then Campbell Graham (15.4%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 46.5 line (model projects 50). Referee Wyatt Raymond's games average 49.5.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-04 10:14 UTC (latest tip update)