# Dragons v Sharks — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 24 – 16 Sharks

_Dragons breathe fire on Sharks._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 20% / Sharks 80% · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah · Sun, 09 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Valentine Holmes (13' Tipped ⚡), Hamish Stewart (24'), Tyrell Sloan (45' Tipped ⚡), Setu Tu (76' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Sione Katoa (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Billy Burns (32'), Jesse Ramien (52' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 80% | Lost |
| Dragons | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 15.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 9 Aug 2026, 05:55 pm_

Dragons 24–16 Sharks in NRL Round 23 at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, the Dragons held a narrow 12-10 lead over the Sharks at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium. By full-time, they had extended it to an 8-point victory, 24-16. The second half saw the Dragons maintain their edge, with a few pivotal moments shaping the outcome.

The Dragons' lead was tested early in the second half. Tyrell Sloan crossed over in the 45th minute, pushing the score to 16-10. The Sharks responded quickly with a try from Jesse Ramien, closing the gap to 16-14. The Dragons' resilience was on display as Valentine Holmes slotted a penalty goal at the 60-minute mark, giving them a bit of breathing room. The turning point came when Addin Fonua-Blake was sin-binned in the 67th minute for a shoulder charge. With the extra man, the Dragons capitalised, and Setu Tu's try in the 76th minute, converted by Holmes, secured the win.

Sione Katoa opened the scoring for the Sharks, but the Dragons quickly responded. Valentine Holmes and Hamish Stewart scored back-to-back tries, resulting in a 12-point burst between the 13th and 26th minutes. This put the Sharks on the back foot. Billy Burns scored for the Sharks before half-time, narrowing the margin to two points, but they couldn't regain the lead.

Possession stats favoured the Sharks, who held 53% compared to the Dragons' 47%. They were more efficient with the ball, completing 80% of their sets against the Dragons' 75%. However, the Dragons were more effective in attack, breaking the line 7 times to the Sharks' 4. The Dragons' physicality was evident, with 43 tackle breaks to the Sharks' 30, keeping the defence on their toes.

Errors were a concern for the Dragons, who committed 12 compared to the Sharks' 8. Despite this, they controlled territory better, amassing 786 kick metres to the Sharks' 611. The Sharks' defence struggled, missing 43 tackles compared to the Dragons' 31, which was crucial in the Dragons' ability to capitalise on their opportunities.

Alphr's model had predicted the Sharks with an 80% probability and a margin of 15.3 points in their favour, expecting a dominant performance. However, the Dragons defied both prediction and form to claim victory. The Sharks entered the match with a five-game winning streak, while the Dragons had only one win from their last five. This upset was a reminder of rugby league's unpredictability. The model may have missed the mark, but the Dragons' performance was spot on.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Sharks | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,534 | Run metres | **1,688** |
| 504 | Post-contact metres | **541** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| **9** | Offloads | 7 |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 84.8% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 12 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **786** | Kick metres | 611 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 80% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 6/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (67 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 6 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Dragons bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 80% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 13' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 24' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 44' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 16-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 67' Sin Bin — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 76' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.19 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 80.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 80% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 498 ELO points clear, 1704 to 1206. Form leans Sharks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sharks by 15.3, with the two sides combining for about 53. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 23.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Sharks 4th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Dragons $4.75 and Sharks $1.19, with the line at Dragons +14.5 and the total at 51.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Sharks 8 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-16 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Sharks 4th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Market | Dragons $4.75 · Sharks $1.19 |
| Line | Dragons +14.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.7 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Liam Kennedy** — 67 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 8W–4L | 67% |
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 80% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Sharks hold a 13-point edge: 4W–1L (80%) vs Dragons's 8W–4L (67%). Games average 46.3 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (5 games for Sharks).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Sharks's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 38.8pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 12.4pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 26.4pts |
| 1625.0m | Run Metres | 1732.4m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 385.0 | Tackles | 323.2 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R17 L · R18 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 18.4 |
| Sharks | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 38.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Sharks | 34 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R23 | Dragons | 22 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R15 | Sharks | 30 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R25 | Dragons | 10 – 38 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R9 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 8th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.11 conceded/game). Key man: Mulitalo, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.58/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 9th) | 2.11/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 15 | 19 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 65 | 54 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 665m/g | 731m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 16.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.6% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 18 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 556m/g | 470m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 91% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.71) -4%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.41) +39% · 2nd Rows 0.6/g (lg 0.47) +28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | INT | 9 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 9% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 8 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 2/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 2/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 8/12g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·2·1·1·0) | 6/9g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 19% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| 4 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 7/9g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 7 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | RES | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1206 · Sharks 1704 · ELO difference: 498 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1166 | 1117 | Dragons +49 |
| Backs | 990 | 971 | Dragons +19 |
| Halves | 1185 | 1355 | Sharks +170 |
| Hooker | 990 | 1200 | Sharks +210 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 49.8% | Sharks |
| 2 | Halves Control | 18.5% | Sharks |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.4% | Sharks |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 5.4% | Sharks |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 4.7% | Sharks |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 4.4% | Dragons |
| 7 | Backline Quality | 3.5% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Sharks predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dragons-v-sharks
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-09 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)