# Dolphins v Broncos — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Dolphins v Broncos?

Alphr's NRL model makes Dolphins a clear 69% favourite over Broncos in Round 23. Predicted result: Dolphins by 9 in a low-scoring game (46 total, under the 48.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Dolphins lead on Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Selwyn Cobbo leads at +11.4% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Dolphins v Broncos
Sat, 08 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.42 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 69.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 69% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 261 ELO points clear, 1592 to 1331. Form leans Dolphins's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The margin model has Dolphins by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.63 — model probability 72.7% (edge +11.4%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $2.55 — model probability 47.9% (edge +8.7%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $2.25 — model probability 45.2% (edge +80.0%)
- Deine Mariner @ $3.05 — model probability 32.6% (edge -20.0%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $1.67 — model probability 59.2% (edge -70.0%)
- Reece Walsh @ $2.35 — model probability 36.1% (edge -6.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $8.00 — model probability 18.9% (edge +6.4%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $13.00 — model probability 12.4% (edge +4.8%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $12.00 — model probability 11.5% (edge +3.2%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $8.00 — model probability 13.0% (edge +50.0%)
- Deine Mariner @ $14.00 — model probability 7.5% (edge +40.0%)

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.6pts |
| 1697.0m | Run Metres | 1511.8m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 378.2 | Tackles | 340.8 |
| 13.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R22 W | 20.4 |
| Broncos | R17 L · R18 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 12.8 |

### Referee Insight

**Todd Smith** — 116 career games since 2012.

Dolphins hold a 6-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Broncos's 10W–6L (63%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Broncos get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dolphins's +0.0.

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Dolphins win, around 27–19 (total ~46 — under the 48.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Selwyn Cobbo (18.9%, +6.4% edge over market), then Jamayne Isaako (13.0%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 48.5 line (model projects 46). Referee Todd Smith's games average 46.2.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-04 10:14 UTC (latest tip update)