# Dolphins v Broncos — NRL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 40 – 32 Broncos

_Dolphins roar back to outswim Broncos._

Half time: 24 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 69% / Broncos 31% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 08 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (24' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (27'), Jamayne Isaako (33' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (39' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (51'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (68' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (71' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Ezra Mam (4' 1st), Ezra Mam (7' 1st), Deine Mariner (13' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Willison (21'), Ezra Mam (36' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 69% | Won |
| Broncos | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Aug 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 8 Aug 2026, 07:32 pm_

Dolphins 40–32 Broncos in NRL Round 23 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model predicted the Dolphins would edge out the Broncos by 8.5 points, and they did just that, winning by 8. The model gave the Dolphins a 69% chance of victory, expecting a lower-scoring game than the actual 72-point shootout. While the final margin was accurate, the points explosion from both teams exceeded expectations.

The Broncos started strong, scoring 24 unanswered points before the Dolphins got on the board. Ezra Mam was key, scoring twice within the first seven minutes. By the 22nd minute, the Broncos had a 22-point lead. Reece Walsh converted each early try. The model didn't foresee this early blitz, but the Dolphins soon responded.

The Dolphins fired back with 18 unanswered points. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow began the comeback in the 24th minute, followed by tries from Connelly Lemuelu and Jamayne Isaako. By half-time, the Broncos' lead was down to six points. This shift aligned with the model’s confidence in the Dolphins' offensive strength, anticipating their second-half push.

Possession favoured the Dolphins at 54%, and they capitalised, outgaining the Broncos in run metres, 1,739 to 1,335. In post-contact metres, the Dolphins led with 535 to the Broncos' 450. Their forwards, expected to be stronger, delivered. Despite leading in missed tackles with 40, they held their nerve when it counted.

Ezra Mam completed his hat-trick just before half-time, but the Broncos couldn't maintain their momentum after the break. They successfully challenged a captain's call at the 55th minute, but it only temporarily halted the Dolphins' momentum. A penalty goal from Reece Walsh briefly put the Broncos ahead, but it was short-lived.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Selwyn Cobbo's tries in the final quarter sealed the win for the Dolphins. Isaako's conversion of Tabuai-Fidow’s second try flipped the lead for the only time in the match. Dolphins' superior line breaks, seven to six, showed their ability to break down the Broncos' defence when it mattered.

The Broncos edged out in tackle breaks, 40 to 32, and had more kick metres, 563 to 398, but it wasn't enough. Their six conceded penalties, especially four in the second half, disrupted any chance of regaining control. The game remained competitive until the last 10 minutes, but the Dolphins held firm.

Alphr's model expected a strong showing from the Dolphins' backline and halves, and that's where the decisive plays came from. Dolphins had the edge in creativity, combining well-timed runs with incisive passing. It was a day for the numbers, and nearly all of them backed the Dolphins to take this one out.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 24 | 16 | 40 |
| Broncos | 30 | 2 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 74% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| **1,739** | Run metres | 1,335 |
| **535** | Post-contact metres | 450 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| 4 | Offloads | **5** |
| 86.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.4%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 398 | Kick metres | **563** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 8.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 72 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 46. Dolphins trailed 24–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–32. The model went 8/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 7.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (116 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 26 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 69% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 6' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 13' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 18-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 22-30 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 50' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 28-30 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 67' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 34-32 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 40-32 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.42 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 69.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 69% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 261 ELO points clear, 1592 to 1331. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Forward Pack. The margin model has Dolphins by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 40-32 in 2026 Round 23.

Dolphins have won 8 straight. Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 5, Broncos 3.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 5th against Broncos 15th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.42 and Broncos $2.87, with the line at Dolphins -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 12.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 2 · Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 40-32 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 5th · Broncos 15th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.42 · Broncos $2.87 |
| Line | Dolphins -7.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 12.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 116 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Broncos | 10W–6L | 63% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Dolphins hold a 6-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Broncos's 10W–6L (63%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Broncos's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.6pts |
| 1697.0m | Run Metres | 1511.8m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 378.2 | Tackles | 340.8 |
| 13.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R22 W | 20.4 |
| Broncos | R17 L · R18 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R24 | Broncos | 38 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R4 | Dolphins | 12 – 20 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R26 | Dolphins | 40 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R6 | Broncos | 28 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 12th-ranked left edge attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.26 conceded/game). Key man: Karapani, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.16/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.32/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.47/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 8th) | 0.68/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 10 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 61 · 47 | 34 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 869m/g | 653m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.4/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.6% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 15 | 12 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 487m/g | 535m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.13) +62% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.84/g (lg 0.71) +18%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 28/37g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 68' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 17 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 41/83g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/23g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 28/70g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 12 in 14g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·2·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 34/56g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 25/89g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/35g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/63g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 5/35g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 9/36g | 28% | — | 🏉 27' 51' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Plath | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/19g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/17g | 3/46g | 8% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 24/44g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 49/90g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 12/34g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 21/45g | 28% | — | 🏉 4' 7' 36' |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 8/41g | 20% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 9/54g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/88g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 13/76g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/74g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | RES | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 26/122g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/15g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Gehamat Shibasaki | INT | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 13/29g | 30% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1592 · Broncos 1331 · ELO difference: 261 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1203 | 1076 | Dolphins +127 |
| Backs | 1146 | 871 | Dolphins +275 |
| Halves | 1112 | 895 | Dolphins +218 |
| Hooker | 1039 | 932 | Dolphins +107 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 42.7% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 17.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 4.8% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 4.7% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Halves Control | 3.1% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-08 09:32 UTC (latest tip update)