# Wests Tigers v Eels — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Wests Tigers v Eels?

Alphr's NRL model rates Wests Tigers a narrow 50% favourite over Eels in Round 22 — effectively a coin-flip. **Confidence: Low.** Eels are stronger on paper, but Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage tip the model to Wests Tigers.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Wests Tigers v Eels
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 22

### Match Overview

Line ball between Wests Tigers and Eels. The model can't split them, landing on Wests Tigers at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Eels sit 289 ELO points clear, 1606 to 1318. Form leans Eels's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Wests Tigers, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.4pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| -13.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 1523.6m | Run Metres | 1872.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 352.0 | Tackles | 366.6 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 15.4 |
| Eels | 3W–2L | 19.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-26 13:25 UTC (latest tip update)