# Wests Tigers v Eels — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 13 – 16 Eels

_Eels wriggle past a gallant Wests Tigers._

Half time: 0 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 39% / Eels 61% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 02 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Fonua Pole (47'), Adam Doueihi (59' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Jordan Samrani (21' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tallyn Da Silva (31'), Isaiah Iongi (75' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 61% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 2 Aug 2026, 05:56 pm_

Wests Tigers 13–16 Eels in NRL Round 22 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-eight missed tackles. That was the difference in the Eels' narrow 16-13 victory over the Wests Tigers at CommBank Stadium. Despite the Eels' defensive lapses, they managed to hold on for the win.

Wests Tigers had 55% of the possession and showed attacking intent, racking up a total of 1,636 run metres and 536 post-contact metres. In contrast, the Eels managed just 1,398 metres and 387 post-contact. The Tigers were the more direct side, breaking the line five times to four and busting 48 tackles to 26. But the missed tackles for the Eels gave the Tigers more opportunities than the Eels might have preferred.

Jordan Samrani opened the scoring for the Eels in the 21st minute. By the 31st minute, Tallyn Da Silva's try had the Eels sitting comfortably at 12–0. The Tigers, however, came out firing in the second half, with tries from Fonua Pole and Adam Doueihi bringing them back into contention. It was Doueihi again with a field goal in the 72nd minute that gave the Tigers a short-lived lead, 13–12.

The Eels regained their composure, though. Isaiah Iongi crossed for a try three minutes later, failing to convert but shifting the lead back to the Eels at 16–13. It was the last significant play of the match. A three-point margin, but those 48 missed tackles were crucial.

The Tigers were unlucky given their superior completion rate (77%) and fewer errors (15 to the Eels' 19). They were the cleaner side with the ball, but execution at key moments let them down. Despite having more possession and territory, they couldn't turn the screw when it mattered most.

Pre-match, the model had the Eels to win it at a 61% chance, with a predicted margin of 4.5 points. It wasn't far off; the Eels prevailed by just three. The model called under 47.5 total points, which hit comfortably, with the game amounting to 29 points overall.

While the Tigers’ resilience was clear, they're still searching for their first win in six games. The Eels, with two wins in their last five, were clearly the stronger side on paper. Higher ratings in all key positions went their way. It shows how one stat, missed tackles, can swing a game, even when on-field performances seem evenly matched.

At the end of the day, the Eels claimed the win, but the Tigers had their moments. They’ll need more of those moments stitched together to change the colour of their form line.

That's footy. Back to the drawing board for the Tigers. They'll need to tighten up their defence if they want to turn possession into points. For the Eels, a win's a win, no matter how it comes, but they'll want to patch up those missed tackles moving forward.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| Eels | 12 | 4 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,636** | Run metres | 1,398 |
| **536** | Post-contact metres | 387 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| **88.3%** | Effective tackle % | 86.3% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| **15** | Errors | 19 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **517** | Kick metres | 466 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Eels by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 29 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 6/17 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 7.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (66 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 18 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 67% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Fonua Pole (Wests Tigers) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 58' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 13-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 13-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.41 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Eels are the call at 61%, but Wests Tigers stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Eels sit 99 ELO points clear, 1355 to 1256. Form leans Eels' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Eels own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has Eels by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Eels, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2026 Round 22.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 16th against Eels 15th.

The market has Eels favourites, Wests Tigers $2.93 and Eels $1.41, with the line at Wests Tigers +7.5 and the total at 47.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 4 · Eels 6 |
| Last meeting | Eels 16-13 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 16th · Eels 15th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $2.93 · Eels $1.41 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +7.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.0 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Liam Kennedy** — 66 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 1W–7L | 13% |
| Eels | 8W–4L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.5 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 8 of 12 games (67%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 8 (13%). Games average 46.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 6.4pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -24.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1515.8m | Run Metres | 1587.6m |
| 1.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 347.4 | Tackles | 346.4 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 14.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 6.4 |
| Eels | R15 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R21 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wests Tigers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Eels | 20 – 22 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R7 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 38 | Eels |
| 2025 | R2 | Eels | 6 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R27 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 60 | Eels |
| 2024 | R4 | Eels | 16 – 17 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 11th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 17th there (2.21 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.83/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.32/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.21/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.89/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.78/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 222m/g | 144m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 82.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 58 | 30 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 678m/g | 694m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.1% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 18 | 11 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 463m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Centres 1.06/g (lg 0.71) +49% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.41) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 5/10g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 18% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/7g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 10% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 6/11g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/21g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 1/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/12g | 2% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Charlie Murray | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 5% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/17g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 19/49g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 20/30g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/14g | 21/69g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sam Tuivaiti | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/10g | 3/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/28g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 4/27g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Junior Paulo | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 11/89g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1256 · Eels 1355 · ELO difference: 99 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 781 | 851 | Eels +70 |
| Backs | 777 | 881 | Eels +104 |
| Halves | 761 | 856 | Eels +95 |
| Hooker | 733 | 868 | Eels +136 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 39.4% | Eels |
| 2 | Halves Control | 22.1% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 8.5% | Eels |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.4% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 6.1% | Eels |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.1% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Eels predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-02 07:56 UTC (latest tip update)