# Titans v Warriors — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 6 – 42 Warriors

_Warriors put Titans to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 40% / Warriors 60% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 01 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Arama Hau (23') · Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (11' Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (16'), Leka Halasima (29'), Jacob Laban (36'), Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (47'), Te Maire Martin (63'), Te Maire Martin (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 60% | Won |
| Titans | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 1 Aug 2026, 04:54 pm_

Titans 6–42 Warriors in NRL Round 22 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors crushed the Titans 42–6 at Cbus Super Stadium, and it wasn't as close as even that lopsided score suggests. Warriors dominated possession with 57% and ran over 2,219 metres compared to the Titans' 1,462. Titans had a glimpse of hope early on, but it was short-lived.

The match kicked off with a flurry from the Warriors, who put 14 points on the board in the first 18 minutes. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak opened the scoring, followed by tries from Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Chanel Harris-Tavita. Titans replied briefly through Arama Hau, narrowing it to 4-14, but Warriors quickly regained control with tries from Leka Halasima and Jacob Laban before half-time. Warriors led 26-6 at the break.

The second half saw the Warriors continue their dominance, adding another 16 points without reply. Tries from Eddie Ieremia-Toeava and two from Te Maire Martin wrapped up the scoring. This spree was backed by a superior completion rate of 81% to the Titans' 66%. Warriors' ability to retain possession and minimise errors, just eight to the Titans' 14, was crucial.

Titans found themselves on the back foot, struggling to match the Warriors’ efficient attack. Titans' defence was porous, missing 48 tackles, while Warriors only missed 39. The Warriors' attack was relentless, making 12 line breaks compared to Titans' mere two. This difference highlighted the attacking prowess that the Titans simply couldn't match.

AJ Brimson’s sin-binning in the 56th minute for an early tackle added to the Titans' woes, allowing Warriors to score another four points during his absence. Meanwhile, Warriors capitalised with stronger forward pressure, racking up 755 post-contact metres. Titans just couldn't handle the physicality, conceding ground and failing to mount any significant comeback.

It wasn’t just brute force from the Warriors; their tactical nous was evident in how they kept the ball alive. With 15 offloads compared to Titans' nine, they consistently kept play moving. The Warriors also utilised a more effective kicking game, with 533 kick metres, marginally overshadowing the Titans' 518.

Alphr’s model predicted a Warriors win with a 60% probability, but the margin was far greater than forecasted. The model anticipated a 5.8-point gap, but the game was one-sided, with Warriors winning by 36 points. The total score was forecasted at 45, but the actual was 48. The under 49.5 total call was indeed correct, maintaining the model's reputation for accuracy in total score predictions.

In terms of positional strength, Warriors were a class above with their forward packs, backs, and halves all rated higher than Titans'. It was a clean sweep in ratings, 1080 to 868 in forwards, 1082 to 890 in backs, and 1102 to 903 in the halves. Titans had their strengths but were outgunned in every critical department.

For the Titans, it was a game to forget. Despite their recent form of three wins from five, they weren’t able to field the same level of performance against a formidable Warriors side. They need to reassess their defensive strategies and handling errors if they hope to be competitive in future matchups. Meanwhile, the Warriors left Cbus Super Stadium with a statement win under their belt.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Warriors | 26 | 16 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 43% | Possession | **57%** |
| 66% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,462 | Run metres | **2,219** |
| 502 | Post-contact metres | **755** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **12** |
| 39 | Tackle breaks | **48** |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| 84.6% | Effective tackle % | **86.1%** |
| 48 | Missed tackles | **39** |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 518 | Kick metres | **533** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. Warriors led 6–26 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 5/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 5.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 10' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 16' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 23' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 28' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 36' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 47' Try — Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (Warriors) — 6-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 55' Sin Bin — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 6-30 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 63' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 6-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 69' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 6-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 60%, but Titans stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 200 ELO points clear, 1570 to 1370.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warriors by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Warriors have put up 138 points in four games. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 13th against Warriors 3rd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Titans $2.53 and Warriors $1.52, with the line at Titans +5.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 6 · Warriors 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-6 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWL · 138 for, 114 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 13th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Titans $2.53 · Warriors $1.52 |
| Line | Titans +5.5 · total 49.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 1697.8m | Run Metres | 1782.6m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 354.4 | Tackles | 342.8 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R16 W · R17 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 25.0 |
| Warriors | R16 W · R17 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Warriors | 28 – 20 | Titans |
| 2025 | R25 | Titans | 18 – 32 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R21 | Warriors | 16 – 24 | Titans |
| 2024 | R16 | Titans | 66 – 6 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R8 | Warriors | 24 – 27 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.89 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) | 1.39/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.61/g (def 8th) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.78/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 13 | 13 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 53 | 50 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 766m/g | 662m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 19 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 485m/g | 590m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 88.7% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.72) +13% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.41) +12% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.28) -9%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.67/g (lg 0.41) +63% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/22g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dean Ieremia | WG | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 16/33g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 29/70g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 12 in 18g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·3·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 39/70g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 17/42g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/79g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 7/42g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/12g | 19% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 15/50g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/37g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 7% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·4·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/7g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 17 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 6/16g | 3/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | RES | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 2/5g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 12 in 12g | 12/10g (2·2·2·0·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/1g | 24/26g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/7g | 20% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 63' 70' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/45g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | CE | 5 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 29' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1370 · Warriors 1570 · ELO difference: 200 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 868 | 1080 | Warriors +212 |
| Backs | 890 | 1082 | Warriors +192 |
| Halves | 903 | 1102 | Warriors +199 |
| Hooker | 897 | 1091 | Warriors +195 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 67.8% | Warriors |
| 2 | Referee Tendency | 10.5% | Titans |
| 3 | Halves Control | 6.9% | Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 4.1% | Warriors |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 3.4% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warriors predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-01 06:54 UTC (latest tip update)