# Storm v Bulldogs — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 22 – 36 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs hound Storm._

Half time: 16 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 39% / Bulldogs 61% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 31 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Moses Leo (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sualauvi Faalogo (21'), Moses Leo (40' 1st Tipped 🎯), Angus Hinchey (47') · Bulldogs: Jaeman Salmon (15'), Jethro Rinakama (25' Tipped ⚡), Jaeman Salmon (30'), Matt Burton (50' Tipped ⚡), Josh Curran (61'), Stephen Crichton (69'), Stephen Crichton (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 61% | Won |
| Storm | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 31 July 2026, 09:59 pm_

Storm 22–36 Bulldogs in NRL Round 22 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model predicted a Bulldogs win over the Storm with a 61% probability, and the Bulldogs delivered, winning 36-22 at AAMI Park. The model foresaw a narrow 5.2-point margin, but the Bulldogs outperformed, securing a 14-point victory. The total points prediction was also accurate, as the teams combined for 58 points, surpassing the 42.5 line.

At half-time, the teams were deadlocked at 16-all. The match was tight as expected, but the Bulldogs broke away in the second half. They unleashed a 20-point surge between the 50th and 79th minutes, decisively swinging the game in their favour.

Moses Leo opened the scoring for the Storm and crossed the line twice, with Sualauvi Faalogo and Angus Hinchey also scoring. Despite their efforts, the Storm's advantage in the halves was too slim to hold off the Bulldogs.

Stephen Crichton was instrumental for the Bulldogs, scoring two crucial tries. Jaeman Salmon also scored twice. The Bulldogs exploited the Storm's defensive lapses, achieving nine line breaks compared to the Storm's four. Their attack was more potent, with 546 post-contact metres against the Storm's 463.

Bailey Hayward's sin-bin in the 38th minute could have shifted momentum, but the Bulldogs remained composed. The Storm capitalised with 8 points during his absence but failed to extend their lead. After the break, the Bulldogs' defence held strong, even as they conceded penalties.

The lead changed hands three times, keeping the match competitive until the Bulldogs' decisive run. They were more aggressive, breaking 44 tackles compared to the Storm's 35. Although the Storm had fewer errors, the Bulldogs' attacking efficiency was the difference.

Possession was evenly split at 50% each, but the Bulldogs were more effective with their share. Their defensive edge was evident in the tackle percentages: Bulldogs at 85.8% to the Storm's 83.7%. The Storm's 44 missed tackles highlighted their defensive struggles.

Ultimately, the Bulldogs' recent form and slight positional advantage were decisive. Their run of four wins in the last five matches was no fluke, nor was their average of conceding just 14 points per game. The stats proved reliable, as the Bulldogs controlled the tempo and secured the win.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Bulldogs | 16 | 20 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,403 | Run metres | **1,641** |
| 463 | Post-contact metres | **546** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **44** |
| **15** | Offloads | 9 |
| 83.7% | Effective tackle % | **85.8%** |
| 44 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| **13** | Errors | 14 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 433 | Kick metres | **445** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 6/17 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (399 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 17 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 41. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Storm historically win 72% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 15' Try — Jaeman Salmon (Bulldogs) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 20' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Jaeman Salmon (Bulldogs) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 38' Sin Bin — Bailey Hayward (Bulldogs) — 12-14 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 39' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 47' Try — Angus Hinchey (Storm) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 50' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 22-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 61' Try — Josh Curran (Bulldogs) — 22-24 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 69' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 22-30 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 77' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 22-34 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.53 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 61%, but Storm stay live at 39%. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Storm.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Bulldogs by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 36-22 in 2026 Round 22.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Storm 12th against Bulldogs 9th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Storm $2.50 and Bulldogs $1.53, with the line at Storm +5.5 and the total at 42.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 36-22 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 12th · Bulldogs 9th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Storm $2.50 · Bulldogs $1.53 |
| Line | Storm +5.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.4 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Gerard Sutton** — 399 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 48W–19L | 72% |
| Bulldogs | 15W–27L | 36% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 67 games (72%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 15 from 42 (36%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Storm get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.5. 64% of his 183 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.8pts |
| 1667.0m | Run Metres | 1699.2m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 358.2 | Tackles | 347.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R16 W · R17 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 20.0 |
| Bulldogs | R16 W · R17 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Bulldogs | 30 – 20 | Storm |
| 2025 | FW1 | Storm | 26 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R25 | Storm | 20 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R6 | Storm | 16 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R2 | Storm | 12 – 26 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.61 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.79/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.39/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.22/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.61/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.47/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.44/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 9 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 232m/g | 249m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 51 | 28 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 688m/g | 816m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 16.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 22 | 16 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 519m/g | 484m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Wingers 1.33/g (lg 1.28) +4% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.47) -11%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.28) +8% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.72) -4% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.47) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 14 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/18g | 42% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 3 | Manaia Waitere | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 20/51g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 4/7g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 40' |
| 6 | Tyran Wishart | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 11/47g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/23g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Trent Toelau | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 7/55g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Hayden Watson | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | RES | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Shawn Blore | RES | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/27g | 4% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/5g | 4/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | CE | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 12/19g | 0/3g | 30% | — | 🏉 69' 78' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' 30' |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 6/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | INT | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 20% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | RES | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1461 · Bulldogs 1473 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 989 | 1001 | Bulldogs +12 |
| Backs | 987 | 1006 | Bulldogs +19 |
| Halves | 948 | 943 | Storm +5 |
| Hooker | 982 | 992 | Bulldogs +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hooker & Ruck | 21.5% | — |
| 2 | Halves Control | 20.7% | — |
| 3 | Team ELO | 9.5% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 9.2% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 5.6% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 5.3% | Storm |
| 7 | Referee Tendency | 3.2% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-31 11:59 UTC (latest tip update)