# Sharks v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 32 – 16 Rabbitohs

_Sharks devour Rabbitohs._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 76% / Rabbitohs 24% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 02 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Briton Nikora (22'), Siosifa Talakai (27'), Blayke Brailey (37'), Addin Fonua-Blake (50'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (67' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Latrell Siegwalt (6' 1st), Campbell Graham (46' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 76% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.7 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 2 Aug 2026, 03:47 pm_

Sharks 32–16 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 22 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Rabbitohs had their moments, but it wasn't all sunshine and roses at Ocean Protect Stadium. Latrell Siegwalt got them off to a good start, opening the scoring by the sixth minute. His try and conversion set the Rabbitohs up with an early lead of 6-0. But that was the last they saw of the driver's seat for the rest of the match.

Where it slipped? Defence, or the lack thereof. The Rabbitohs missed 55 tackles. That's more than double the Sharks' count of 25. Not exactly a formula for success. Their completion rate wasn't helping much either, sitting at 78%. Sharks were just more efficient with the ball, completing 90% of their sets.

Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston added tries in the second half, yet the Rabbitohs couldn’t claw back the Sharks' lead. The Rabbitohs tried to change the momentum with a captain's challenge in the 36th minute, but it was fruitless. Meanwhile, the penalty count against them didn’t do any favours either, consistently giving the Sharks easy metres.

The scoreboard finished 32-16, and it was no fluke. The Sharks simply outplayed their opponents in nearly every aspect. They racked up 1,638 run metres against the Rabbitohs' 1,298. In fact, they clocked up 479 post-contact metres, grinding it out after initial impact. Line breaks were close, 7-6, but Sharks just executed better on the night.

The Sharks' attack, led by Nicho Hynes' boot, didn’t disappoint. Briton Nikora, Siosifa Talakai, Blayke Brailey, Addin Fonua-Blake, and Ronaldo Mulitalo all found the line. Hynes converted with clinical precision, not missing a single conversion and adding a penalty goal for good measure. Their 14 unanswered points between the 50th and 69th minutes effectively sealed the game.

Possession stats highlighted the Sharks' dominance: they hogged the ball 55% of the time. They also kept the Rabbitohs on their toes with 17 offloads, compared to 11 from the Rabbitohs. Those extra passes created opportunities and kept the Rabbitohs' defence scrambling.

Teig Wilton's sin-binning in the 11th minute might have given the Rabbitohs a glimmer of hope. Still, the Sharks managed to keep a clean sheet during his absence, never letting the Rabbitohs make the most of their numerical advantage.

The Rabbitohs were outclassed, plain and simple. Sharks' strength across the board delivered the result that Alphr's model expected, even nailing the 13+ margin. The model predicted this Sharks victory with a 76% probability, and it was on the money. A 32-16 win aligns perfectly with that forecast. That’s the Sharks; on form, on the night.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 10 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,638** | Run metres | 1,298 |
| **479** | Post-contact metres | 381 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **54** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **17** | Offloads | 11 |
| **86.5%** | Effective tackle % | 80.6% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 55 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **626** | Kick metres | 399 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 76% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 14.7 vs the actual margin of 16 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 48, within 4 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Sharks covered the 10.5-point line. The 13+ margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (115 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Latrell Siegwalt (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 11' Sin Bin — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Siosifa Talakai (Sharks) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 36' Try — Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 49' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 67' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 30-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 32-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.28 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 75.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 76% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 185 ELO points clear, 1688 to 1503. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Rabbitohs.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The margin model has Sharks by 14.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 32-16 in 2026 Round 22.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 4th against Rabbitohs 6th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.28 and Rabbitohs $3.73, with the line at Sharks -10.5 and the total at 50.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 14.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 7 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 32-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | WLLW · 94 for, 100 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 4th · Rabbitohs 6th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Sharks $1.28 · Rabbitohs $3.73 |
| Line | Sharks -10.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 14.8 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 115 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 12W–5L | 71% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 12 of 17 games (71%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 12 (42%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 34.0pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 14.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1693.4m | Run Metres | 1724.4m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 341.0 | Tackles | 328.6 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R16 L · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 34.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R17 W · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 12 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R3 | Sharks | 27 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R22 | Sharks | 20 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 34 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.06 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 21 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.56/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.06/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 8th) | 1.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 12 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 3.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 177m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 83% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 43 | 59 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 743m/g | 723m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 16.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 77.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 18 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 467m/g | 594m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.27) +63% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.13) +62% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.41) +37%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.71) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/10g | 5/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·2·1·1) | 7/7g | 2/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/11g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 4/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 6/8g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 5/7g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/10g | 3/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/6g | 10% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 10 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 7 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 5/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 1/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 21 in 15g | 15/10g (1·2·2·3·1·0·4·0·1·1) | 7/13g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | CE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/22g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | John Radel | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | INT | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1688 · Rabbitohs 1503 · ELO difference: 185 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1207 | 1015 | Sharks +193 |
| Backs | 1220 | 1002 | Sharks +218 |
| Halves | 1174 | 981 | Sharks +193 |
| Hooker | 1150 | 1001 | Sharks +149 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 39.3% | Sharks |
| 2 | Halves Control | 12.5% | Sharks |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 11.2% | Sharks |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 7.4% | Sharks |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.5% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 2.6% | Sharks |
| 7 | Hooker & Ruck | 2.2% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Sharks predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-02 05:47 UTC (latest tip update)