# Sharks v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Sharks v Rabbitohs?

Alphr's NRL model rates Sharks a narrow 50% favourite over Rabbitohs in Round 22 — effectively a coin-flip. **Confidence: Low.** Sharks lead on ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Sharks v Rabbitohs
Sun, 02 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 22

### Match Overview

Line ball between Sharks and Rabbitohs. The model can't split them, landing on Sharks at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 162 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1393. Form leans Sharks's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1721.0m | Run Metres | 1716.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 343.2 | Tackles | 358.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 14.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 20.6 |
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 24.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-26 13:18 UTC (latest tip update)