# Panthers v Raiders — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 42 – 18 Raiders

_Panthers claw past Raiders._

Half time: 30 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 69% / Raiders 31% · Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee · Sat, 01 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Liam Martin (8'), Liam Martin (20'), Thomas Jenkins (31' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (36' Tipped ⚡), Jaxen Edgar (39'), Liam Henry (57'), Isaiah Papali'i (77') · Raiders: Matthew Timoko (3' 1st), Matty Nicholson (70'), Ethan Strange (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 69% | Won |
| Raiders | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 1 Aug 2026, 07:22 pm_

Panthers 42–18 Raiders in NRL Round 22 at Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers put the Raiders on the back foot early, asserting dominance with a powerful 42–18 win at Glen Willow Oval. A blistering performance before half-time saw the Panthers outscore the Raiders 30–6, laying the groundwork for a comfortable win. Down 0-4 after Matthew Timoko's early strike for the Raiders, the Panthers hit back quickly and decisively. Liam Martin crossed twice by the 20th minute, turning the tide in their favour.

By the time Thomas Jenkins had added two more and Jaxen Edgar crossed just before the break, the Raiders were chasing a runaway train. The Panthers' scoreboard pressure was relentless. Between the 8th and 59th minutes, the Panthers racked up 36 unanswered points, effectively sealing the match long before the final whistle. Liam Henry’s try in the 57th minute stretched the lead to 36-6, a seemingly insurmountable gap for the Raiders.

The Raiders managed a brief resurgence with a couple of tries from Matty Nicholson and Ethan Strange in the final 10 minutes, but by then, the Panthers had firmly established their command. Isaiah Papali'i’s late try only reaffirmed the Panthers' superiority, extinguishing any flicker of a Raiders' comeback.

Despite the Panthers' win, the model's prediction of an 8-point margin significantly underestimated their dominance. The final margin of 24 was well beyond what was expected. In terms of play, the Panthers made fewer errors with just seven to the Raiders' ten, contributing to a higher completion rate of 85%. This discipline kept them in control, even if tackle breaks favoured the Raiders, 42 to Panthers’ 37.

Offensively, the Panthers were on another level. They cut through the Raiders' defence with nine line breaks against the Raiders' four and amassed 1,981 run metres, significantly outmatching the Raiders' 1,555 metres. Post-contact metres were similarly weighted in Panthers' favour, highlighting their physicality in the forwards.

In the kicking game, Panthers edged the Raiders with 698 kick metres to 686, while penalties and missed tackles were evenly distributed, underscoring that the match was decided on execution in open play. Nathan Cleary’s role can’t be overlooked either, his perfect conversion rate helping to convert pressure into points.

The Raiders came into this game with better recent form, having won 4 of their last 5, but the Panthers exploited their key positional advantages. The pre-game strengths in forwards, backs, and halves translated into tangible dominance on the turf. Despite miscalculating the final margin, Alphr's model was on point with the prediction of a Panthers win, supported by a significant ratings gap of 163 ELO points.

Ultimately, it was a match where scoreboard pressure told the story. The Panthers built an unassailable lead early, maintaining it resolutely to keep the Raiders perpetually in chase mode.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30 | 12 | 42 |
| Raiders | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| **1,981** | Run metres | 1,555 |
| **600** | Post-contact metres | 498 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 3 | Offloads | **11** |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **89.2%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| **7** | Errors | 10 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **698** | Kick metres | 686 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 2/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (303 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 17 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Panthers have a 71% win rate under this referee. Panthers's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 8' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 19' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 30' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 35' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Jaxen Edgar (Panthers) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 56' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 69' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 36-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 36-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 40-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 69% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 163 ELO points clear, 1659 to 1497. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Panthers.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Panthers by 8.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 42-18 in 2026 Round 22.

Panthers have won 4 straight; Panthers are 11-2 at home this year. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Raiders 11th.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.33 and Raiders $3.35, with the line at Panthers -8.5 and the total at 44.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 7 · Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 42-18 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWW · 103 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-2 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Raiders 11th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Panthers $1.33 · Raiders $3.35 |
| Line | Panthers -8.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Adam Gee** — 303 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 29W–12L | 71% |
| Raiders | 22W–20L | 52% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 29 of 41 games (71%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 22 from 42 (52%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Panthers get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 34.8pts |
| 18.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1779.0m | Run Metres | 1657.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 375.8 | Tackles | 328.6 |
| 13.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R20 L · R21 W | 20.4 |
| Raiders | R16 L · R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 34.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Raiders | 18 – 30 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R25 | Panthers | 16 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R25 | Raiders | 22 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R5 | Raiders | 12 – 53 | Panthers |
| 2022 | R21 | Raiders | 6 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.11 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 12th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Cleary, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.26 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 2nd there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Stuart, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.11/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.68/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.79/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.26/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 5 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 206m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 26 | 42 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 864m/g | 745m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 18.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.1% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 17 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 538m/g | 535m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.72) +25% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.47) +4% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.41) -22% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.13) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Glen Willow Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxen Edgar | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 26 in 18g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·2·3·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 36' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 2/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jack Cogger | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 8' 20' |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Scott | RES | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Nicholson | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/23g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1659 · Raiders 1497 · ELO difference: 163 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1144 | 1020 | Panthers +124 |
| Backs | 1191 | 1035 | Panthers +155 |
| Halves | 1181 | 968 | Panthers +214 |
| Hooker | 1196 | 977 | Panthers +219 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 43.4% | Panthers |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 14.1% | Panthers |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.8% | Panthers |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 7.4% | Raiders |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 5.3% | Panthers |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.7% | Panthers |
| 7 | Referee Tendency | 2.2% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Panthers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-panthers-v-raiders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-01 09:22 UTC (latest tip update)