# Dragons v Dolphins — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Dragons v Dolphins?

Alphr's NRL model rates Dragons a narrow 50% favourite over Dolphins in Round 22 — effectively a coin-flip. **Confidence: Low.** Dolphins are stronger on paper, but Backline Quality and Venue Advantage tip the model to Dragons.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Dragons v Dolphins
Fri, 31 July, 06:00 pm AEST · WIN Stadium · Round 22

### Match Overview

Line ball between Dragons and Dolphins. The model can't split them, landing on Dragons at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 337 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1342. Form leans Dolphins's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Dragons, which says Backline Quality and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 1704.8m | Run Metres | 1812.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 332.6 | Tackles | 338.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 26.4 |
| Dolphins | 5W–0L | 30.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-26 13:23 UTC (latest tip update)