# Dragons v Dolphins — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 22 – 28 Dolphins

_Dolphins make a splash against Dragons in a tight one._

Half time: 10 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 30% / Dolphins 70% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Fri, 31 July, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Setu Tu (11' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (20' Tipped ⚡), Clinton Gutherson (62'), Ryan Couchman (77') · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (24' Tipped ⚡), Ray Stone (34'), Selwyn Cobbo (54' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Flegler (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 70% | Won |
| Dragons | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 31 July 2026, 07:52 pm_

Dragons 22–28 Dolphins in NRL Round 22 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Dolphins edged out the Dragons 28–22 at WIN Stadium, maintaining scoreboard pressure throughout. The Dolphins led from the 34th minute and held their ground, pulling ahead by 12 points early in the second half.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow got the Dolphins rolling with an early try in the 5th minute. The Dragons responded with tries from Setu Tu and Tyrell Sloan, briefly taking the lead. However, Selwyn Cobbo and Ray Stone turned the tide for the Dolphins by half-time, leading 16-10 at the break.

The Dragons struggled to close the gap, with missed tackles haunting them throughout the match. They missed 36 tackles, while the Dolphins kept theirs to 26. The Dolphins' defence was more effective, with a tackle success rate of 91.7% compared to the Dragons’ 87.7%. Despite this, the Dragons matched the Dolphins' 50% possession and had an 83% completion rate to the Dolphins’ 71%.

A crucial 16-point surge by the Dolphins between the 24th and 55th minutes, including Cobbo's brace, proved decisive. The Dragons attempted a fightback with Clinton Gutherson's try in the 62nd minute, narrowing the margin to 8. However, Thomas Flegler's try in the 70th minute restored the Dolphins’ lead. Even with Ryan Couchman's late try, the Dolphins’ lead remained secure.

The Dolphins' superior yardage was a key factor, with 2,001 run metres compared to the Dragons’ 1,810. They were more aggressive in offensive metrics, busting 36 tackles and firing off 11 offloads. The Dragons, while tidy with the ball, couldn’t match this physical presence.

The Dragons tried to regain territory, benefiting from 691 kick metres to the Dolphins’ 509. However, this strategic kicking couldn't compensate for their tackling deficiencies and lack of offensive thrust. The Dolphins had 13 errors to the Dragons' 10, but capitalised on their opportunities more effectively.

Despite the Dragons’ positional strengths on paper, the Dolphins outplayed them in practice. Alphr's pre-match model accurately predicted the Dolphins as favourites with a 70% probability, projecting a margin of 8.8 points; the actual winning margin was 6 points.

The result reflected the Dolphins' ability to convert their chances and maintain composure under pressure. Their stronger ELO rating and physical dominance were decisive. The Dragons needed more from their defence, but it didn’t hold firm when it mattered most.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| Dolphins | 16 | 12 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| 1,810 | Run metres | **2,001** |
| 590 | Post-contact metres | **629** |
| 7 | Line breaks | 7 |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| 87.7% | Effective tackle % | **91.7%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **691** | Kick metres | 509 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 8.8 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 50, within 1 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Dragons covered the 13.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 20' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 24' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 53' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 61' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 69' Try — Thomas Flegler (Dolphins) — 16-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 77' Try — Ryan Couchman (Dragons) — 20-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.21 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 70% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 375 ELO points clear, 1586 to 1212. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Backline Quality and Hooker & Ruck. The margin model has Dolphins by 8.8, with the two sides combining for about 49. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 4 of the last 6 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 28-22 in 2026 Round 22.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Dolphins have won 8 straight; Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Dolphins 5th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dragons $4.45 and Dolphins $1.21, with the line at Dragons +13.5 and the total at 49.5.

Dolphins come in fresher, 12 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dragons 2 · Dolphins 4 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 28-22 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Dolphins 5th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Dragons $4.45 · Dolphins $1.21 |
| Line | Dragons +13.5 · total 49.5 |
| Rest gap | Dragons 5d · Dolphins 12d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.2pts |
| 1626.2m | Run Metres | 1658.0m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 375.8 | Tackles | 369.0 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R20 L · R21 L | 18.0 |
| Dolphins | R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | Dolphins | 56 – 6 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R17 | Dragons | 26 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R2 | Dolphins | 38 – 0 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R13 | Dolphins | 26 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R5 | Dragons | 38 – 12 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.39/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.56/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 10th) | 1.56/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.61/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.56/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 15 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 62 | 58 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 657m/g | 866m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 21.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.4% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 9 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 555m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.22) +59% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.41) +37% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.47) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/10g | 18% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 8 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 14/20g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | RES | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | RES | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 1/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 17 in 18g | 11/10g (3·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·2) | 7/10g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (4·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·1·2·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 54' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | RES | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Plath | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | RES | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1212 · Dolphins 1586 · ELO difference: 375 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 676 | 1113 | Dolphins +437 |
| Backs | 705 | 1066 | Dolphins +361 |
| Halves | 682 | 1085 | Dolphins +403 |
| Hooker | 751 | 1073 | Dolphins +321 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 68.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Referee Tendency | 9.7% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 6.1% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.5% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 2.8% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.7% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Halves Control | 2.4% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-dragons-v-dolphins
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-31 09:52 UTC (latest tip update)