# Cowboys v Roosters — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 12 – 82 Roosters

_Roosters put Cowboys to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 39% / Roosters 61% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Thu, 30 July, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Braidon Burns (11' Tipped ⚡), Tom Chester (54' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: James Tedesco (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Walker (15'), Hugo Savala (18'), Sam Walker (25'), Salesi Foketi (28'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (32' Tipped ⚡), Tommy Talau (35'), James Tedesco (37' 1st Tipped 🎯), Mark Nawaqanitawase (42' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (61' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (67' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (72'), Hugo Savala (75'), Cody Ramsey (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 61% | Won |
| Cowboys | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 70 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 30 July 2026, 09:49 pm_

Cowboys 12–82 Roosters in NRL Round 22 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Roosters' match-defining surge began in the 15th minute and continued until the 42nd, a 46-point blitz that effectively sealed the game. By that point, they had stormed to a 48-6 lead over the Cowboys. The rest was a formality. When the final whistle blew at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, the Roosters had crushed the Cowboys 82-12.

James Tedesco set the tone early, scoring in the 2nd minute. The Cowboys briefly responded through Braidon Burns in the 11th minute, but that was their last real challenge. By half-time, the Roosters were ahead 48-6, making the second half more about the margin than the outcome.

The Roosters were relentless. Sam Walker, Hugo Savala, and Mark Nawaqanitawase were among those crossing the line multiple times. Walker was particularly effective, scoring a hat-trick and converting with precision. The Cowboys' defence was porous, missing 42 tackles compared to the Roosters' 19. Such defensive frailty was always going to be punished by a team as clinical as the Roosters.

Statistically, the game was as one-sided as the scoreline. The Roosters dominated possession with 64% and had a completion rate of 90%. They outpaced the Cowboys in run metres, 2,275 to 1,154, and post-contact metres were similarly lopsided: 693 to 363. This physical dominance translated into ten line breaks and 42 tackle breaks, underscoring their attacking superiority.

The Cowboys had their moments, with Tom Chester scoring in the 54th minute. But these were isolated incidents against a team in commanding form. The Roosters' control of the ball and territory was further enhanced by superior kicking, amassing 591 kick metres to the Cowboys’ 425. This kept the Cowboys pinned back, rarely threatening to change the course of the match.

Both teams committed nine errors, and the Cowboys conceded seven penalties to the Roosters’ five. Despite these shared mistakes, the Roosters maintained fluidity in their attack, highlighted by 16 offloads that kept their play dynamic and unpredictable.

Pre-match predictions had favoured a Roosters win, given their superior ELO rating and current form. However, the 70-point margin was beyond expectations, making Alphr's prediction of a 5.4-point win seem conservative. The model anticipated a Roosters victory, but the scale of this thrashing was unforeseen.

The Roosters have reinforced their dominance, while the Cowboys face a tough road ahead. It's back to the drawing board for them. Meanwhile, the Roosters continue their winning streak, proving why they are a formidable force in the competition.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Roosters | 48 | 34 | 82 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 36% | Possession | **64%** |
| 71% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| 1,154 | Run metres | **2,275** |
| 363 | Post-contact metres | **693** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 19 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 4 | Offloads | **16** |
| 83.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **19** |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 425 | Kick metres | **591** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.4 but the actual margin was 70 points. The game's 94 points came in 50 points higher than the predicted 44. Roosters led 6–48 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 70. The model went 7/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (414 career games). The combined score of 94 points was 51 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 61% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 10' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 14' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 25' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 28' Try — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 31' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 35' Try — Tommy Talau (Roosters) — 6-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 37' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 6-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 41' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-52 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 54' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 10-52 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 61' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 12-56 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 12-62 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 12-68 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 75' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 12-74 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Cody Ramsey (Roosters) — 12-80 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.52 (edge -1.7%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 61%, but Cowboys stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 132 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1501. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Cowboys.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Roosters by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 82-12 in 2026 Round 22.

Roosters have lost 4 straight; Roosters have leaked 120 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Roosters 5.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 8th against Roosters 2nd.

The market has Roosters favourites, Cowboys $2.54 and Roosters $1.52, with the line at Cowboys +5.5 and the total at 45.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 15.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 82-12 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys at home | 7-5 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLL · 68 for, 120 against |
| Roosters away | 8-5 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 8th · Roosters 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Cowboys $2.54 · Roosters $1.52 |
| Line | Cowboys +5.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 15.6 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 414 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 19W–24L | 44% |
| Roosters | 43W–28L | 61% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 43 of 71 games (61%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 19 from 43 (44%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| -3.0pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1642.6m | Run Metres | 1678.8m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 343.4 | Tackles | 341.8 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R16 L · R17 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W | 19.8 |
| Roosters | R16 W · R17 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Roosters | 12 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R16 | Roosters | 42 – 8 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R13 | Roosters | 16 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R10 | Roosters | 6 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R22 | Roosters | 32 – 18 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 9th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.94/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.47/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.56/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 9th) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.72/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 15 | 12 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 52 | 58 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 760m/g | 731m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 16.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 11 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 560m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.41) +7%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 9 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 24/77g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·2·2·0·2·0·0) | 4/7g | 6/16g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/21g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 11 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·3·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 37/57g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 14/37g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Jaxon Purdue | HB | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/27g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Soni Luke | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/60g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 13/38g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 29/45g | 40% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/51g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Ethan King | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 8/60g | 4% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 4/14g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 37' |
| 2 | Tommy Talau | WG | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 18' 75' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 12 in 14g | 9/10g (0·2·2·0·3·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 42' 67' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 15' 25' 72' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 19/66g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Nat Butcher | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Losalu | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1501 · Roosters 1633 · ELO difference: 132 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1029 | 1117 | Roosters +88 |
| Backs | 1000 | 1157 | Roosters +157 |
| Halves | 987 | 1109 | Roosters +122 |
| Hooker | 1016 | 1157 | Roosters +141 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 62.9% | Roosters |
| 2 | Halves Control | 11.1% | Roosters |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 8.8% | Roosters |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 3.8% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 3.2% | Roosters |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.2% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Roosters predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-30 11:49 UTC (latest tip update)