# Broncos v Knights — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 6 – 30 Knights

_Knights charge down Broncos._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 61% / Knights 39% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 01 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Reece Walsh (60') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (8' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (33' Tipped ⚡), Phoenix Crossland (47'), Greg Marzhew (63' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (75' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 61% | Lost |
| Knights | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 July 2026, 09:56 pm · Last updated: 1 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm_

Broncos 6–30 Knights in NRL Round 22 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A 20-point burst from the 3rd to the 48th minute was the turning point in the Knights' decisive 30–6 victory over the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. Fletcher Sharpe opened the scoring early, and the Knights never relinquished control. They led 14–0 at half-time and extended their lead in the second half, finishing with a 24-point margin.

The Knights started strong. Fletcher Sharpe crossed in the third minute, and Dominic Young added another try five minutes later. The Broncos' troubles deepened when Deine Mariner was sin-binned for a professional foul in the seventh minute. The Knights capitalised on the extra man, adding four more points.

The Broncos struggled to gain any momentum. Their completion rate was a poor 65%, and they committed 15 errors throughout the match. In contrast, the Knights were efficient, completing at 85% and limiting their errors to just 8. This precision allowed them to maintain control and never let the Broncos back into the game.

The Knights dominated the ground game, amassing 1,836 run metres compared to the Broncos' 1,408. They also led in post-contact metres, 652 to 525. Greg Marzhew's two tries highlighted their powerful forward play, consistently breaking through tackles and keeping the Broncos under pressure.

Defensively, the Broncos were porous, missing 40 tackles compared to the Knights' 30. The Knights broke the line nine times, exposing the Broncos' defensive weaknesses. The effective tackle percentages also favoured the Knights: 88.5% to the Broncos' 85.8%.

Reece Walsh provided a brief spark for the Broncos with a try in the 60th minute, converting his own effort to bring the score to 4–20. However, the Knights quickly responded with another try from Marzhew, quashing any hopes of a Broncos comeback.

By the match's end, the Knights had also dominated the kicking game, recording 598 kick metres to the Broncos' 360. Their deep kicks kept the Broncos pinned back, unable to mount any sustained pressure.

Alphr's model had favoured the Broncos with a 61% chance of winning, but the Knights defied expectations with their superior performance across the board. They not only secured the win but also made a statement with their commanding display. The Broncos were left to ponder their shortcomings in front of their home crowd.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Knights | 14 | 16 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,408 | Run metres | **1,836** |
| 525 | Post-contact metres | **652** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **88.5%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 15 | Errors | **8** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 360 | Kick metres | **598** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. Knights led 0–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 5/17 on this match. Knights covered the 6.5-point line. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (329 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 6' Sin Bin — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 7' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 24' Sin Bin — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 24' Sin Bin — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 0-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 32' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 46' Try — Phoenix Crossland (Knights) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 59' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 4-20 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 62' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 61%, but Knights stay live at 39%. The ratings say otherwise: Knights sit 117 ELO points clear, 1475 to 1358, so the model is backing Broncos against the ratings gap. Form leans Knights' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

On paper Knights shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Broncos, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Broncos by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Knights have leaked 126 in their last four. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 14th against Knights 7th.

The market has Broncos favourites, Broncos $1.50 and Knights $2.61, with the line at Broncos -6.5 and the total at 45.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Knights 4 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-6 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WLLW · 112 for, 126 against |
| Knights away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 14th · Knights 7th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Broncos $1.50 · Knights $2.61 |
| Line | Broncos -6.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.4 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 329 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 24W–27L | 47% |
| Knights | 15W–18L | 45% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Broncos 24W–27L (47%) and Knights 15W–18L (45%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 12.8pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| -13.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1503.8m | Run Metres | 1664.6m |
| 2.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 355.8 | Tackles | 378.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R15 L · R17 L · R18 L · R20 W · R21 L | 12.8 |
| Knights | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R25 | Knights | 12 – 46 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R20 | Knights | 14 – 30 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R15 | Broncos | 24 – 20 | Knights |
| 2022 | R22 | Broncos | 28 – 10 | Knights |
| 2022 | R11 | Knights | 12 – 36 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 15th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 16th there (2.05 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.84 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 12th there (1.39 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 12th) | 1.84/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.63/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.05/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.72/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.05/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 131m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 46 | 53 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 653m/g | 745m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 20.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 75.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 8 | 19 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 546m/g | 492m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.22) +41% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.72) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 23/43g | 46% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 10/24g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 49/89g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/2g | 12/33g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/16g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 21/44g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 12/67g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Va'a Semu | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/52g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 9/87g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 8/40g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 13/75g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/73g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 9/53g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/22g | 26/121g | 6% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/8g | 3/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (2·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/7g | 8/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 8/26g | 8% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 4/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 17 in 18g | 9/10g (5·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 63' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 22% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 75' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/11g | 4% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Knights hold the ELO advantage (1475 vs 1358), but the market favours Broncos (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1358 · Knights 1475 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 846 | 1002 | Knights +156 |
| Backs | 837 | 1012 | Knights +175 |
| Halves | 824 | 967 | Knights +144 |
| Hooker | 836 | 1013 | Knights +177 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 31.1% | Knights |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 18.2% | Knights |
| 3 | Halves Control | 18.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 8.3% | Knights |
| 5 | Referee Tendency | 3.4% | Broncos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Broncos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-01 11:28 UTC (latest tip update)