# Broncos v Knights — NRL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Broncos v Knights?

Alphr's NRL model rates Broncos a narrow 50% favourite over Knights in Round 22 — effectively a coin-flip. **Confidence: Low.** Broncos lead on ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Broncos v Knights
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 22

### Match Overview

Line ball between Broncos and Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Broncos at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 197 ELO points clear, 1501 to 1304. Form leans Broncos's way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -12.6pts |
| 1617.8m | Run Metres | 1513.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 332.8 | Tackles | 377.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 25.6 |
| Knights | 0W–5L | 17.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-26 13:25 UTC (latest tip update)