# Raiders v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 56 – 10 Wests Tigers

_Raiders run riot over Wests Tigers._

Half time: 28 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 74% / Wests Tigers 26% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 25 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Jed Stuart (7' 1st), Ethan Sanders (15'), Ethan Strange (21' Tipped ⚡), Kaeo Weekes (24' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (33' Tipped ⚡), Daine Laurie (51'), Daine Laurie (61'), Daine Laurie (67'), Jed Stuart (70' 1st), Matthew Timoko (77') · Wests Tigers: Ethan Roberts (11'), Faaletino Tavana (37' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 74% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.8 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Raiders vs Wests Tigers Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 21, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 July 2026, 06:59 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 04:59 pm_

Raiders 56–10 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 21 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders’ ball control versus Wests Tigers' ambition. That was the story in Canberra, with Raiders flattening Tigers 56–10. Raiders put on a clinic in disciplined, controlled rugby, dominating possession and racking up the metres. They held the ball for 56% of the match, a testament to their superior completion rate of 88% against the Tigers’ 78%.

Raiders’ calculated approach shone through from the start, with Jed Stuart opening the scoring in the sixth minute. The passing was crisp, the runs were clean, and as the game wore on, patience paid off. Ethan Sanders, Ethan Strange, Kaeo Weekes, and Xavier Savage all found their way over the white line before half-time. By then, the Raiders had raced to a 28–10 lead.

The Tigers had a few flashes of ambition, with Ethan Roberts and Faaletino Tavana both crossing for tries in the first half. Yet, their attacking flair was quickly snuffed out by a Raiders side that was both efficient and clinical. The Tigers’ defence was leaky, missing 31 tackles to the Raiders’ 24. It left them constantly on the back foot, chasing shadows and letting the game slip away.

In run metres, the Raiders were far ahead. They racked up 1,878 metres compared to the Tigers’ 1,193. Post-contact metres also favoured Canberra, with 547 compared to 390. Daine Laurie wreaked havoc in the second half, crossing for a hat-trick between minutes 51 and 67. By that point, Tigers’ ambitions had crumbled under the weight of Raiders’ composure.

The penalties count was a minor blip for Raiders. They conceded 7 compared to Tigers’ 5, but it hardly mattered. They backed themselves in defence, evidenced by their 86.2% tackle effectiveness, and kept Tigers’ offensive endeavours in check with superior line breaks, 10 to 3. It was a defensive display that allowed their attack to flourish.

The model’s read on the game wasn’t far off in picking a Raiders win, but the margin was a different story. Predicting Raiders by 11.8, it missed the sheer scale of Canberra’s dominance. With a 46-point margin, this was a rout, not a contest. The model had the total points pegged at 45, overshooting the mark by 21 points as Raiders breezed to 66 total.

In positional battles, the numbers predicted a Raiders edge, and the game bore that out. Their forwards were rated at 993 to Tigers’ 787, and their backs at 965 to Tigers’ 766. The Raiders' halves and hooker continued the theme, comfortably outranking Tigers. Across the paddock, Raiders had the scalpel to Tigers’ hammer, carving through a defence that offered little resistance.

Wests Tigers' form was dire, going in with five straight losses and an average losing margin of -18.4 points. Against a Raiders side that was just hitting its straps with three wins on the trot, the outcome was as expected, if not the scale of it.

In the end, Raiders were just too smart, too sharp, and too polished. For the Tigers, it’s back to the drawing board, again.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28 | 28 | 56 |
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,878** | Run metres | 1,193 |
| **547** | Post-contact metres | 390 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| 86.2% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| **6** | Errors | 8 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 498 | Kick metres | **532** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.8 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 66 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 45. Raiders led 28–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 11' Try — Ethan Roberts (Wests Tigers) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 15' Try — Ethan Sanders (Raiders) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 20' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 24' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 33' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 36' Try — Faaletino Tavana (Wests Tigers) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 51' Try — Daine Laurie (Raiders) — 32-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 60' Try — Daine Laurie (Raiders) — 38-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 67' Try — Daine Laurie (Raiders) — 44-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 69' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 50-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 56-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.22 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 12 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 74% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 183 ELO points clear, 1469 to 1286. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 11.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 56-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Wests Tigers 14th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.22 and Wests Tigers $4.25, with the line at Raiders -13.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 56-10 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Raiders $1.22 · Wests Tigers $4.25 |
| Line | Raiders -13.5 · total 51.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 8.8pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 1608.6m | Run Metres | 1613.0m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 1.6 |
| 341.2 | Tackles | 351.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R15 L · R16 L · R17 W · R19 W · R20 W | 26.0 |
| Wests Tigers | R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L | 8.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 33 – 14 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R26 | Raiders | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 16 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 48 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.39 conceded/game). Key man: Sasagi, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.44/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.39/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 18 | 14 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 226m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 45 | 31 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 745m/g | 689m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 76% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 14 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 92% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.41) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.72) +26% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 17/34g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 5/17g | 19% | — | 🏉 7' 70' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/25g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 19/58g | 26% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 2/4g | 22/37g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 12/30g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 9% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 8/67g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 10/104g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/5g | 8/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/33g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/42g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/22g | 30/136g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 10% | — | 🏉 51' 61' 67' |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 10% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 9% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Faaletino Tavana | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Javon Andrews | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 3/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan Roberts | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jared Haywood | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1469 · Wests Tigers 1286 · ELO difference: 183 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 993 | 787 | Raiders +205 |
| Backs | 965 | 766 | Raiders +199 |
| Halves | 981 | 816 | Raiders +165 |
| Hooker | 948 | 769 | Raiders +179 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Raiders predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 06:59 UTC (latest tip update)