# Knights v Roosters — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 22 – 23 Roosters

_Roosters surge back to strut past Knights._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 45% / Roosters 55% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 24 July, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Francis Manuleleua (22'), Mat Croker (28'), Dominic Young (48'), Bradman Best (72' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: James Tedesco (15' 1st), James Tedesco (43' 1st), James Tedesco (58' 1st), Billy Smith (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 55% | Won |
| Knights | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 July 2026, 06:59 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 07:58 pm_

Knights 22–23 Roosters in NRL Round 21 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Knights did plenty right at McDonald Jones Stadium, but it wasn't quite enough. They held more of the ball, shredded through for more run metres and forced the Roosters into more mistakes. Despite leading 10-6 at half-time, the Knights couldn't keep the momentum going. Roosters clawed back to win by a point, 23-22.

Francis Manuleleua, Mat Croker, Dominic Young and Bradman Best all crossed the line for the Knights. They were efficient with their possessions, making fewer errors than the Roosters and achieving an 84% completion rate. In terms of run metres, the Knights had the edge too: 1,626 metres compared to the Roosters' 1,474. But it wasn't enough to clinch the win.

Where it slipped for the Knights was in finishing. Despite having more of everything, possession, metres and line breaks, they couldn’t convert when it mattered. James Tedesco was a real thorn in the side, scoring three times for the Roosters. The Knights' defence managed to break 39 tackles, but it was their own missed tackles that proved costly.

The Roosters' win was largely down to their ability to capitalise on key moments. Tedesco was at the heart of their attack, opening the scoring in the 14th minute and adding two more after the break. Billy Smith’s try in the 68th minute put the Roosters ahead, but it was Daly Cherry-Evans' late field goal that sealed the match for them.

On the stat sheet, the Roosters had their struggles. They missed 39 tackles and made 13 errors, both more than the Knights. But with Tedesco steering the ship, their backline's higher rating showed its value. The Knights' forwards were rated lower, and it surfaced in crunch time.

The Knights' recent form showed promise, with three wins in their last five. Still, the Roosters had just that bit more. Their four wins leading into this match highlighted their consistency, and their 20.6 average points per game hinted at their attacking prowess.

The model had tipped the Roosters with a 55% chance of winning, suggesting a slim margin of just 2.4 points. In reality, the game was tighter, with just a solitary point in it. With a combined score of 45, the match was as close as they come.

So, the Knights were undone despite their solid efforts. The Roosters’ ability to make the big plays when it counted was the crucial difference, a lesson in sometimes having just enough.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| Roosters | 6 | 17 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 82% |
| **1,626** | Run metres | 1,474 |
| **520** | Post-contact metres | 510 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| **87.6%** | Effective tackle % | 85.9% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 522 | Kick metres | **529** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Roosters by 2.4 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 45, within 1 points. Roosters trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–23. The model went 6/17 on this match. Knights covered the 2.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (54 career games). The combined score of 45 points was 5 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Francis Manuleleua (Knights) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Mat Croker (Knights) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 43' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 58' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 16-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 68' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 71' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 20-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 77' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 22-23 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.71 (edge -0.7%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 55%, but Knights stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 126 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1494. Form leans Roosters' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 31.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 6th against Roosters 3rd.

The market has Roosters favourites, Knights $2.15 and Roosters $1.71, with the line at Knights +2.5 and the total at 45.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 13.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.9 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 1 · Roosters 9 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 19-18 |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 6th · Roosters 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Knights $2.15 · Roosters $1.71 |
| Line | Knights +2.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 13.2 pens/g · 0.9 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 54 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Roosters | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 49.6 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Knights 3W–5L (38%) and Roosters 1W–2L (33%). Games average 49.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Roosters).

Knights get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.2pts |
| 1706.8m | Run Metres | 1704.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 381.2 | Tackles | 345.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L | 17.8 |
| Roosters | R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R19 W · R20 W | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Roosters | 19 – 18 | Knights | Roosters 69% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Knights | Roosters 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R15 | Knights | 8 – 12 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights | 20 – 22 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights | 16 – 18 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 5th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.12 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 7th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.94/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.41/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.59/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) | 2.12/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.65/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 12 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 214m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 41 | 54 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 747m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.8/g | 16.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 7 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 556m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.41) +10%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.21) +48% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 15 in 18g | 6/10g (0·2·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 28/38g | 40% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 8 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 6/15g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 21/50g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 17 in 17g | 12/10g (3·5·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 28/38g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 16/18g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 10/61g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/62g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 10 in 15g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 11/32g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/51g | 4% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 4/8g | 34% | — | 🏉 15' 43' 58' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 12 in 12g | 11/10g (0·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·3·1) | 13/17g | 7/11g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 12 in 13g | 11/10g (2·0·2·2·0·3·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 79% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Nat Butcher | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Hugo Savala | INT | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Connor Watson | RES | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/33g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1494 · Roosters 1620 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 956 | 1154 | Roosters +197 |
| Backs | 999 | 1130 | Roosters +131 |
| Halves | 993 | 1142 | Roosters +149 |
| Hooker | 961 | 1154 | Roosters +193 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 09:58 UTC (latest tip update)