# Knights v Roosters — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Knights v Roosters
Fri, 24 July, 06:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 21

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.71 (edge -70.0%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.2pts |
| 1706.8m | Run Metres | 1704.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 381.2 | Tackles | 345.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L | 17.8 |
| Roosters | R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R19 W · R20 W | 20.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 09:58 UTC (latest tip update)